Pandemic Influenza Impact on Workforce and Critical Infrastructure

1. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Workforce and Critical Infrastructure

2. NISAC’s Vision – understand, prepare for, and mitigate the consequences of infrastructure disruptions • Provide a common, comprehensive view of U.S. infrastructure in response to disruptions • Scale & resolution appropriate to the issues • Build DHS capability to respond quickly to urgent infrastructure protection issues

3. Water Energy Public Agriculture Health Food Transportation Emergency Services Postal & Government Shipping Monuments Defense Industrial Base & Icons Banking Information & & Finance Telecommunications Chemical Industry & Hazardous Shipments National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Mission Provide fundamentally new modeling and simulation capabilities for the analysis of critical infrastructures, their interdependencies, vulnerabilities, and complexities. These advanced capabilities improve the robustness of our Nation’s critical infrastructures by aiding decision makers in the areas of policy assessment, mitigation planning, education, training, and near real-time assistance to crisis response organizations.

4. The Impacts of a Major Contagious Disease can be Dominated by Infrastructure Disruptions Population Impacts: Deaths, Health Epidemic Dynamics Disease control Interventions Workforce reductions, Demand-side changes Public Health & Healthcare Infrastructure Other Infrastructure Sectors Outages,disruptions, service degradations Economic Impacts

5. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Critical Infrastructure Epidemiology National distribution of disease impacts on population

6. Disease spread modeled nationally at the census-tract level using EpiCast, and regional-scale high-resolution modeling using EpiSimS Mitigation and response options simulated will include those in HHS and CDC policy and the various official pandemic plans, as well as strategies deemed most effective and robust through sensitivity analysis Disease will be modeled according to the expected manifestation at the seasonal, 1958/68, and 1918 pandemic levels Explicit modeling of relevant aspects of the public health system will enable enhanced coupling to population, infrastructure asset and economic consequence assessments Analysis will also emphasize detailed geospatial features Multi-scale Epidemiology and Public Health Modeling Attack rate red: >35% amber: 29% to 35% grey: 17% to 29% green: <17% Bubble area is proportional to tract population

7. Pandemic Influenza Policy Analysis • Response time is most important, other factors are secondary • Partially effective response early is best • Geospatial dynamics are important • Face masks can reduce or prevent an epidemic • 95% “border” control can delay epidemic by 5 weeks • Social distancing is effective, but “re-opening” causes waves, corresponding to historical interventions Delay of Epidemic Infected Arrivals per Day

8. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Critical Infrastructure Population & WorkforceNational distribution based on epidemiology and workforce characteristics

9. Impacts to Workforce Participation Approach: • Given population and workforce data translate epidemiological results into impacts on labor categories, by infrastructure, industry and commercial sector • Model functional relationships of labor categories on infrastructure operations for each sector • Use reductions in workforce to estimate reductions in infrastructure service provision • Model the impacts of mitigation strategies on workforce and estimate impacts on infrastructure service provision Simplified Impact Example Start at 100% provision 100 - Y A reduction of X percent in critical workforce causes a reduction of Y percent in critical infrastructure provision Reduce critical workforce by X percent 100 - X

10. Workforce Reductions by Critical Infrastructure Can sectors afford a 7% loss of labor? 15% difference across infrastructures Emergency Services may be affected 15% more than Nuclear Power NOTE: Result does not include worried well.

11. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Critical Infrastructure Workforce Impacts on Infrastructure Operations

12. Impacts on Labor and Infrastructure Operations Using systems models of infrastructures to evaluate effects of labor shortages on operations (transportation, telecommunications and energy) and data analysis to develop labor models for the rest of the infrastructures (banking and finance, agriculture/food, water,

13. NISAC Workforce-Operations Generic Model Parameter values provide representation of different processes in the supply chain Initial results indicate the importance of fatigue on infrastructure operations (asymmetric decline and recovery curves)

14. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Critical Infrastructure Economics

15. Estimating the Economic Impacts of a Pandemic Influenza Purpose To estimate the impacts of pandemic morbidity and mortality on infrastructures, their interdependencies, and the economy Approach Develop and apply central model of how firms adapt to labor losses, under varying epidemiological and government response conditions. Economic tools REAcct - hybrid input-output and computable general equilibrium approach. N-ABLE - large-scale agent-based economic modeling REMI - national macroeconomic modeling. UCM - international macroeconomic modeling Results Identification of: Infrastructure and economic vulnerabilities caused by labor losses and overall economic conditions Estimates of: Firm-level responses, by industry, firm-size, policy taken; socio-demographic effects; regional and national, short-run and long-run losses in output, employment, trade, price levels;

16. Estimating the Economic Impacts of a Pandemic Influenza

17. Pandemic Influenza Impact on Critical Infrastructure Discussion