Dennis Ojima, Petra TSCHAKERT, Michael Raupach

1. Information needs for adaptive management of the carbon cycle: From regional carbon budgets to a holistic decision-support framework Dennis Ojima, Petra TSCHAKERT, Michael Raupach

2. OUTLINE • Rationale • Framework for Adaptive Management of Regional C Budgets • Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems

3. MITIGATON ACTIONS ARE LOCAL • Efforts to further understand the regional C sources and sinks around the world have triggered a greater focus on accounting, at regional scales, of the changes in C management and patterns of C exchange. • Current efforts to develop regional budgets have estimated fossil fuel emissions, ecosystem sources and sinks, and ocean uptake, although mostly separately. • Few studies have incorporated the role C management activities on regional differences in C sources and sinks.

4. REGIONAL APPROACH For the development of an integrative regional C management framework it is fundamental to identify the current and likely future sizes of regional C stocks, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers that change these stocks, and the decision-making processes that underlie these drivers.

5. Urban-Settlement Area

6. Multiple Source and Sinks

8. Spatial-temporal Emissions (County-level & Daily) • Point source (facility level) emission sources • Mobile source emission sources • Area source county level emission sources Guerny, Ojima, Denning, Marland, and more with NASA Support

9. Chicago Carbon Exchange Initiative with CSU Baron, Advani and others at CSU

10. Target levels

11. Data Integration for Modeling C Cycling of Managed Lands in the US • Heterogeneity of soils within mapping units • Complex crop and tillage history • Strict Input format requirements Soils Data Land Use History Climate Data Scale/Polygons/ Mapping Units Cropping Practices Experimental Scenarios Century Model Carbon Flux and Storage

13. INTEGRATION SCHEME

15. Tschakert, Tieszen, Tappan, Parton, Delgrosso, Ojima and others Journal of Arid Environments (Nov) 2004

16. Largest gains associated with river basins and in the more mesic regions of Senegal Tschakert, Tieszen, Tappan, Parton, Delgrosso, Ojima and others Journal of Arid Environments (Nov) 2004

17. Multiple Criteria Approach • C-mitigation projects need to be designed to demonstrate results in the short, mid and long-term; • C-mitigation projects have to be tailored for specific socio-ecological systems aiming for the establishment of a sustainable system with a long life-expectancy; • Management practices need to target sustainable development taking into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems • Full risk/uncertainty assessments are obligatory; • Projects need to be linked to capacity building, technology transfer; • An integrative management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system

18. TRADE-OFFS AND CONSTRAINTS • Temporal trade-offs need to be made between short-term and long-term goals • Spatial trade-offs need to be made at the inter-regional level to avoid ‘leakage’ of energy, people, and materials. • Thresholds or ‘critical scales’ need to be identified in order to avoid disasters; Redman and Kinzig (2003) argue that one of the critical requirements for the ability to flexibly manage and respond for resilience is to perceive, interpret, and understand ‘early warning’ indicators of undesirable state change. • Minimum requirements should be met across all criteria to ensure diversity

19. SCALE DECISIONS MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES Perception of other human needs Perception of climate change and its impact on human welfare LAND USE cropping forestry rangeland urban conservation MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES extraction inputs regeneration site preparation INSTITUTIONS: Property rights Regulatory rules Cultural practices perceptions objectives regional economics Environmental conditions technology objectives institutional constraints

20. International Market National Scenario MACRO Sub-Model Crop Demand Estimation Regulations Price Supply Population Agent Decision Model Migration Land User Land Use Conversion - within Agriculture Behavioral Models AGRO-ECONOMIC Model SPATIAL URBAN EXPANSION MODEL MICRO Sub-Models BIO-PHYSICAL CROP MODEL Environment / Resource System Model Structure of AGENT-LUC

21. Contingent stakeholders • Owners and managers of C sources and sinks: energy industry, agriculture (including forestry), manufacturing, transportation. • Local and regional governments implementing C policy: regional, provincial/state, urban, township/county. • Financiers and suppliers of C reduction technologies and methods: lenders to buyers, technology suppliers, commercial banks, international financial institutions, and individual or institutional investors. • C market intermediaries and influencers: consultants, NGOs, media, consumer groups, and trade associations. • Underrepresented populations and populations at risk: women, youth, indigenous cultures, migrant workers.

22. Model-data synthesis for carbon management Supply of informationEvaluation of informationAdaptive use of information Models • Land biosphere • Atmosphere • Ocean • Anthropogenic C • … Model-data synthesis cycle Adaptive management cycle Model-data synthesis (information exchange) Products: • Consistent estimates of • C stores, fluxes • C budgets • Trends in stores, fluxes • Evaluation of • models, data, priors Tools: • Data assimilation • Parameter estimation • Bayesian inference • Neural network analysis Information Use • Decision makers (multiple agents) seeking optimal system behaviour (multiple goals) • International (treaties) • National (policy) • Local (action) Data • Land • Atmosphere • Ocean • Economies • Societies • … Prior beliefs • Constraints • Expert opinion • Intuition • …

23. SUMMARY As we improve our understanding of the controls of source-sink emissions of C and we employ “top-down/bottom-up” techniques to reduce our uncertainties, we must apply these scientific concepts to develop strategies for mitigating C emissions and to work in concert with a broad set of stakeholder and decision makers. Regional multiple criteria approaches are useful for: Land use actions, from household to regional and global approaches across social and biophysical characteristics Energy Emissions from local uses to regional approaches and across sectors to find solutions which meet multiple goals