UK Official Statistics on Migration: Current Methods & Future Plans

1. UK Official Statistics on Migration: Current Methods & Future Plans Emma Wright Office for National Statistics, UK

2. Outline Methodology to estimate Total International Migration (TIM) to and from the UK Improvements planned Future work: Task Force on Migration Statistics Short-term migration

3. Methodology to estimate TIM (1) IPS Migrants

4. Methodology to estimate TIM (2) IPS Migrants MigrantSwitchers

5. Methodology to estimate TIM (3) Visitor Switchers IPS Migrants Migrant Switchers

6. Methodology to estimate TIM (4) Asylum Seekers Visitor Switchers IPS Migrants Migrant Switchers

7. Methodology to estimate TIM (5) Irish Flows Asylum Seekers Visitor Switchers IPS Migrants Migrant Switchers Total International Migration (TIM)

8. Planned Methodology Improvements Increased IPS sample size for emigrants. Improved estimation of visitor switchers and migrant switchers. Improved geographical distribution of immigrants within the UK.

9. TIM estimates to/from the UK 1995-2005 thousands

10. Context for the future Large changes in scale and nature of migration flows to and from UK over the last decade. Net international migration now key driver of population growth. Traditional long-term migration streams continuing, but also new forms of migration: international commuters temporary migrant workers from new EU Accession countries

11. Task Force on Migration Statistics Cross-Government Taskforce Objectives: To identify existing and new user requirements To recommend ways of strengthening migration statistics to meet these user needs To recommend how appropriate methods can be developed to use data sources in combination

12. Task Force considerations Port and Household surveys Administrative data sources Linking data sources Future sources - ‘e-Borders’ Short-term migrants

13. Short-term migrants People living in the UK for less than 12 months: make demands on local services, but are not included in the population statistics used to apportion funding may participate in the UK labour force so impact on labour supply and contribute to UK economy form an increasingly significant sector of the UK consumer base People out of the UK for less than 12 months: may not be using services or contributing to the UK economy

14. Short-term migrants: Definition UN recommended definition of a short-term migrant: “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least three months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage.”

15. Short-term migrants: Data sources IPS • Both inflows & outflows; detailed information on length of stay, broad coverage, BUT not robust at local level or for detailed breakdowns. LFS • Inflows only, does not cover communal establishments, may exclude shorter stays, not robust for detailed breakdowns Administrative data • Inflows only, little or no information on length of stay, only cover specific migrant types, BUT can provide information at local levels.

16. Estimating short-term migrants: Issues • Information collected at beginning or end of short-term migration event? • Switching – changing intentions, and overlap with long-term migration estimates. • Reason for short-term migration • Timing & Seasonality

17. Any questions?