Economic significance Research Questions to be Investigated

1. Socioeconomic Data, Trends and Scenarios in the Plantation Sector in Sri LankaM T Neil Fernando & A Jayakody • Economic significance • Research Questions to be Investigated • Approach Adopted for Investigation of these Questions • Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated • Solutions for Overcoming Problems

2. Economic Significance • Plantation sector comprises tea, coconut and rubber (oil palm, sugarcane) • The highest net foreign exchange earner – 19% of export earnings

3. Export earnings = Food import bill • The biggest employer – 20% employment in the economy • Contribution to GDP – 6%

4. Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing area Tea Coconut

5. Research Questions to be Investigated • What are the baseline socioeconomic scenarios without climate change • Why ? Helps measure how changes in socioeconomic conditions could affect the sensitivity of the sector to climate change

6. Approach Adopted for Investigation of these Questions • Socioeconomic data were collected from published sources • Stakeholder survey was conducted by the Economist (TRI) • Data trends will be projected for the future (forecasted using a decomposition model)

7. Develop some economic models that project the changes in socioeconomic conditions due to climate change

8. Socioeconomic Data Trends • Land use • Demographic • Input use • Kernal products • Non-kernal products

17. Dry basis 330g 49% Wet basis 6g 1% Husk 413g 39% Water 124g 12% 155g 23% Shell 177g 17% 182g 27% Kernel 339g 32% 673g Total weight 1053g Figure 3: Weight distribution of different components in a standard coconut in Sri Lanka Source: Samarajeewa (1983)

22. Socioeconomic Data & Trends in Tea Production

23. High Grown Tea (Upcountry)

24. High Grown Tea -3 • Over the last 4 decades total production doesn’t show clear trend. • Irregular pattern of production is mainly due to changes in the tea extent

25. High Grown Tea -2

26. High Grown Tea -3 • Productivity shows an upward trend

27. Sample Data • Agro-Ecological Regions in the High Grown Area are – • WU1,WU2,WU3 , IU1 and IU2 • Historical Data collected from – Tea Estates in WU1,WU2 and IU2

28. Tea Production and Rain Fall Pattern • There are three scenarios found: • i)Reduction in No. of Wet Days per Month and Reduction in Monthly average Tea production – but no reduction in Monthly RF WU2 • ii)Reduction in Total Monthly RF and Tea Production but there is increase in No.of Wet Days – IU 2 • Iii)No Change in RF pattern and tea Production WU1

29. Scenario 2- IU2

30. Scenario 2- IU2

31. Scenario 2- IU2

32. Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated • No reliable data are available for land use under coconuts, land fragmentation rate • Too simple approaches to be employed to project the socioeconomic scenarios in the absence of climate change

33. Solutions for Overcoming Problems • Have to live with unreliable data • Explore the appropriate analytical approaches by means of literature survey and interactions with fellow researchers perhaps by working in their climate laboratories

34. THANK YOU