John Richards Graduate Public Policy Program Simon Fraser University Visiting Faculty

1. Society for Bangladesh Climate JusticeSeminar on Climate Change Impacts on BangladeshUniversity of British Columbia9 December 2009Global – and Domestic – Responsibilities for Climate Changein Bangladesh John Richards Graduate Public Policy Program Simon Fraser University Visiting Faculty IUBAT – International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka Jrichard@sfu.ca

2. World Emissions, 2006(% change in selected countries 2005/06, million tonnes of CO2) “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to institute a new order of things” – Machiavelli

3. The essentials in Copenhagen UN climate chief Yvo de Boer hopes the conference will reach agreements on four political essentials … 1. How much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases? 2. How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions? 3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed? 4. How is that money going to be managed?

4. Historical (In)equities (1)

5. Historical (In)equities (2)

6. World map of hazard hotspots and countries most affected from 1998-2007 according to the Climate Risk Index

7. Climate change factors external to Bangladesh (1) • Glacier melting Deforestation in Nepal • Deforestation • “100-year” monsoon floods occurred in 1988 and 2004 • Changes in monsoon patterns

8. Climate change factors external to Bangladesh (2) • Rising sea temperature • more intense cyclones and sea surges in Bay of Bengal • Rising sea volume and hence sea levels

9. Bangladesh to demand 15pc of adaptation fund: Hasan 9 December 2009 Bangladesh will demand at least 15 percent of the global climate change adaptation fund -- proportionate to its population -- at the Copenhagen summit. State Minister for Environment and Forests Hasan Mahmud said this yesterday explaining Bangladesh's stand at the summit.

10. Bangladesh's role at Copenhagen climate convention (Daily Star, 24 November 2009) “At a recent conference at Harvard University on Bangladesh, I proposed the following measures to form the cornerstone of Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change: -Invest in renewable energy, -Initiate quantitative targets for carbon reduction, Abdullah Shibli, economist -Improve energy efficiency, -Reward conservation, innovation, and mitigation efforts, -Develop domestic and non-fossil energy sources, -Research and promote an alternative low-carbon development strategy, -Institute cost-benefit approach for mitigation and abatement projects, -Impose a carbon tax on imported fuel, -Raise our voice in international climate forums and participate in sequestration projects, and -Appoint a climate change czar to advise the PM and coordinate policy.”

11. Nepal to Burma – 400 million living in fragile states with poor governance

12. Corruption Perception IndexTransparency International

13. Bangladesh Governance Indicators 1996 (bottom) - 2008 (top)

14. Generic Options 1. Regulations • Advantages • simple to design • Disadvantages • high compliance costs (role for performance standards) • limited ability of developing country governments to enforce • Examples: • Canadian rising insulation standards in building codes • US new car manufacturers’ fleet mileage constraints • Dhaka ban on 2-stroke “baby taxis” • and substitution of CNG-powered • equivalent

15. Generic Options2. Efficiency (Pigovian) taxes/subsidies • Advantages • internalize externalities without need to impose regulations • Disadvantages • administrative complexity of tax/subsidy design • political conflict arising due to redistributive effects • Example: • Carbon taxes • 150 million Chinese subsidized coal stoves • road pricing in various cities (e.g., Singapore, London)

16. Generic Options3. Markets in “goods and bads” • Advantages • exploit efficiency of market exchange by allocating “abatement” to least cost provider • Disadvantages • administrative complexity of market design • political conflict arising due to redistribution effects (e.g., is initial tradable permit allocation by grant or purchase?) • High variability of permit price • Examples: • Renewable portfolio standards in US, UK and elsewhere • European Union (EU) cap and trade market

17. Generic Options4. Redefinition of property rights • Advantages • Provide strong incentives to agents to “internalize” • minimize government supervision • Disadvantages • Transaction costs • Examples: • Unitization of oil fields in early years of US oil developments • Creation of property rights (private or communal) over forests in Nepal

18. Potentialdomesticadaptation-mitigationstrategies (1) • Disaster preparation • Cyclone shelters and village warning systems • Forestry • Protection of remaining forest cover (e.g., Sunderban) • Forestation of coastal land • Urban parks (shade and breeze) Bangladesh village cyclone shelter

19. Potentialdomesticadaptation-mitigationstrategies (2) • Power sector • Village coal distribution for domestic heating (to avoid use of biomass fuels) • Expanded power capacity • Population planning • Good but not good enough (current fertility rate: 2.7) Improved Chinese stove (left), traditional stove (right)

20. Potentialdomesticadaptation-mitigationstrategies (3) • Sensible pricing of carbon-intensive activities • Import duties on petroleum products • High automobile licence fees • Tax on hydrocarbon fuels based on emissions (carbon tax) • Congestion road taxation in Dhaka and Chittagong • Cost-recovery pricing for Power Development Board CNG taxis issue less CO2 per liter than gasoline-powered cars