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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This update provides information on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American monsoon system, including precipitation anomalies, atmospheric circulation patterns, and model forecasts. Visit the link for more details.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the Brazilian Plateau, as well as the extreme southern Brazil. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern, western and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and eastern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Brazil and east-central Argentina. • For Days 1-7 (25 Feb – 03 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and central Brazil, much of Uruguay and northern Argentina, northern and southern Peru as well as southern Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for southern and portions of central Brazil, eastern Paraguay, Bolivia and central Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern, western and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and eastern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Brazil and eastern central Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of Brazil, eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, northern and central Argentina, southern Chile, eastern Peru and Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Brazil, northern Bolivia, eastern Ecuador and northern Peru.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (> 100 mm), the Brazilian Plateau (> 250 mm) and the extreme southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across much of the tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 17-23 Feb 2019, anomalous cyclonic flow (center noted by red C) was observed over northern Argentina/Uruguay area. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over northern Argentina and northwestern South America. Anomalous rising motion was observed elsewhere. C • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 17-23 Feb 2019, above-average temperature was seen over eastern Brazil and eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 25 February 2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 25 February 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (25 Feb – 03 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and central Brazil, much of Uruguay and northern Argentina, northern and southern Peru as well as southern Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for southern and portions of central Brazil, eastern Paraguay, Bolivia and central Peru. • For Days 8-14 (04 -10 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central Brazil, northern Argentina, northern Paraguay, southern Bolivia, central Peru, eastern Ecuador and eastern Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northwestern Brazil, Uruguay and northern Peru.

  13. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  14. Precipitation Climatology

  15. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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