New Challenges in the Next 20-30 Years

1. New Challenges in the Next 20-30 Years • Transportation demand will continue to grow • Consumers move to larger vehicles for safety • More energy consumption and air pollution • Lower emissions per vehicle required (public & governments) • Different propulsion systems to decrease dependency are mandated • New energy efficiency standards mandated

2. Policy Options Considered • Pollutant concentration standards and enforcement (Emphasis on Ozone, CO, NOx, HC, PM, and CO2) • Land use changes and controls (in US mixing of land use) • Transportation demand management (car pooling, ride sharing, telecommuting/shopping, information provision) • Intelligent transportation systems (information technology for transportation - road telematics) • New vehicle technology! • City-based integrated plans (land use control, TDM, ITS, and clean cars)

3. Government’s Response (USA) US National Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program Exhaust Emission Examples of Standards CA LEV has stricter standards and dictates % of sales by year and certification process

4. Government’s Response (Europe) European Auto Oil Program II (AOPII) Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards List of Directives

5. Government’s Response (Europe) European Emission Standards (1996) Source: europa.eu.int/eur-lex

6. Government’s Response (Euro 1, 2, 3, & 4) European Exhaust Emission Standards for Small Passenger Cars Summary (g/km) Note: Values in Parentheses for Diesel vehicles Source: Jefferson et al. Urban Transport V

7. Key Elements • Efficiency and emissions are mandated – larger organized fleets are the first targets • Europe and USA intend to phase-in the introduction of cleaner cars – making manufacturers responsible for introduction • Safety is not eliminated from the requirements • Legislation in place to introduce many relatively new fuels (CNG, LPG, Methanol, Ethanol, Hydrogen, Electricity) • New ideas emerge – Clear Zones in Europe, Individual Marketing in Australia, Clean Cities in the USA

8. Alternatively Fueled Vehicles (AFV) • One of the options with five groups: • Cleaner gasolines – past transition • Gas (CNG, LPG) – current transition • Alternatives to gasoline/diesel (Methanol, Ethanol) - current transition • Electricity and dual propulsion system – imminent market (2003 is critical year due to legislation) • Fuel cells (with and without Hydrogen)

9. Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid car Fuel tank & Battery pack Electric Motor (needs ext. charge) Power Electronics Management Transmission

10. Fuel cells

11. Car Policies and Their Potential Public support for policies favoring new fuels! Source:40 CFR part 86 – General Provisions for Voluntary National LEV Program

12. Urban Examples of Synergistic Policies (portfolios)

13. Clean Cities Program (EPACT ’92) Clean Cities is dedicated to: - Creating new jobs and commercial opportunities - Facilitating alternative fuel vehicle production and conversion - Expanding local refueling infrastructure - Increasing the use of alternative fuels - Developing "clean corridors" - Increasing public awareness - Advancing clean air objectives - Supporting regulated fleets Source:Clean Cities Web Site

14. Clean Cities (EPACT ’92) 160,000 AFVs in May 2001 Source:Clean Cities Web Site

15. City Vitality Sustainability (CIVITAS) Source:Clean Cities Web Site

17. Consumer Groups and Needs

18. Households • Most likely multi-vehicle households in cities • AFV may be more popular than we think but more market research is needed Source:Clean Cities Web Site

19. Fleets • Government (Federal, State, Municipalities) • Mandated to purchase in the USA • Included in city initiatives in Europe • Why AFVS for fleets? • High-mileage • Centrally located facilities • Uncommon uses (long idling) • Predictable routes and scheduling that can be specialized • Life-cycle advantage • Which fleets? • Postal service, taxis, delivery fleets, shuttle service and transit bus fleets, airport ground fleets, school bus fleets, and national park vehicles.

20. US Federal Fleet (2001) • Postal Service, Army, Navy etc • 314,072 light duty vehicles • 17,147 AFVs • 203 Electric vehicles • 5.5% are AFV but agencies using mostly passenger cars have more • EVs are increasing

21. US DOE Forecasts for AFV New Car Sales by Year(Light duty vehicles in households and fleets in 2000 and 2020) Year 2000 AFVs 2.4% of Total Sales Total=8.9 Million vehicles AFVs=212,000 Year 2020 AFVs 10.9% of Total Sales Total = 8.1 Million vehicles AFVs=866,000 HEV-Gasoline=480,000 Source:US DOE

22. US DOE Forecasts for AFV New Car Sales by Year(Light duty vehicles in households and fleets) Source:US DOE (see also http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/demand.html)

23. US DOE Forecasts for US Car Stock by Year(Light duty vehicles in households and fleets in Millions) Source:US DOE

24. US DOE Summary Forecast New Car Sales (Light duty vehicles – passenger cars and light trucks < 8500 lbs) Source:US DOE

25. US DOE New Car Types by Year(Light duty vehicles – passenger cars) Source:US DOE

26. US DOE New Truck Types by Year(Light trucks) Source:US DOE

27. US DOE Sales Forecasts New Car Sales by Year(Light duty vehicles – passenger cars and light trucks < 8500 lbs) Source:US DOE

28. Fleets use mostly passenger cars, light trucks, medium-heavy trucks, and vans

29. EU 15 – Roadway Vehicle Evolution by Type Source:EU Utopia Project Final Report

30. EU 15 – Forecast Market Share Source:EU Utopia Project Final Report

31. EU 15 – AFV Evolution and Policy Effects Source:EU Utopia Project Final Report

32. Summary • AFVs make business sense as a solution to the Urban transportation problem - energy, air pollution, safety, marketability, and political support! • Large market potential for AFVs – particularly HEVs and EVs • Fleets are the early implementers and they have good potential – target of a few thousand vehicles/year is feasible! • Cities like in Clean Cities and CIVITAS programs have highest potential – actively recruit cities for implementation