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Overview of Key Trends, 2009

Overview of Key Trends, 2009. Presented to Council 27 November 2009 Prof N B Pityana Vice-Chancellor & Principal. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10.

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Overview of Key Trends, 2009

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  1. Overview of Key Trends, 2009 Presented to Council 27 November 2009 Prof N B Pityana Vice-Chancellor & Principal

  2. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10

  3. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10 • Headcount enrolments expanded steadily between 2004 and 2008 from 205 811 to 261 927 – despite the fact that from 2007 onwards, only active students were counted • In 2009, for the first time, Unisa’s student enrolments flattened out • The 2009 1st HEMIS submission counted 237 473 – a substantial drop of 9,3% over the previous year. This can be explained by the later exam date and consequently fewer financial cancellation reinstatements by the HEMIS census date • This explanation is corroborated by the provisional 2009 2nd submission which shows 255 904 active headcounts to date. This indicates that a substantial number of financial cancellations have already been reinstated • On this basis, DISA predicts a final active HC total of 260 749 for 2009 – slightly above the 2010 Ministerial target

  4. Success Rates, 2004-8

  5. Success Rates, 2004-8 • Unisa’s FTE Success Rates have increased from 52,06% in 2004 to 54,89% in 2008 – despite a decline to 50,65% in 2006 • This steady increase augers well for the achievement of the 2010 Ministerial target of 56% by 2010

  6. Performance on 84 Targetsin Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan Overall Performance Targets on Track - % Complete

  7. Performance on 84 Targetsin Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan • The 5-year review of progress towards the achievement of the 2015 Strategic Plan targets showed that progress towards the original 2015 targets can be described as generally on track. Of the 84 targets: • 35 (41,7%) original and revised targets have been reached • 6 (7,1%) original targets have not been reached • 22 (26,2%) original and revised targets are on track • 16 (19,0%) original and revised targets are not on track • 5 (6,0%) targets have shifted or are unclear • In addition, of the 21 targets on track, 6 were between 75% - 99% complete, and a further 6 were above 50% complete

  8. Performance Trends & Prognosis,17 2015 SP KPIs

  9. Performance Trends & Prognosis,17 2015 SP KPIs • Of the 17 KPIs in the 2015 Plan: • 4 targets had been reached. Of these, 1 showed a positive trend, 2 showed a sideways trend and 1 a negative trend • 13 targets had not yet been reached. Of these 3 showed a positive trend, 6 a sideways trend and 4 a negative trend • The prognosis for achieving these targets was as follows: • 4 targets had been reached • 5 targets will probably/possibly be reached • It is unlikely that 4 of the targets will be reached • It is improbable that 4 other targets will be reached

  10. Summary of Projections, 2009-13

  11. Summary of Projections, 2009-13 • Unisa recently submitted its provisional Enrolment Statement to the DoHET in accordance with requirements • This table summarises the provisional projections in key areas for the period 2009-13

  12. The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students

  13. The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students • A key challenge facing Unisa is the number of unfunded students which arise from the capping of teaching input units allocated to HEIs according to the long-term government funding framework • It can be seen that by 2012/13, a subsidy loss of R202,7m will have accumulated • Subsequent iterations of the planning process will have to address this problem

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