Gordon B Cooke, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada

1. Economic Security & Rural and Remote Labour Marketspresented at the Uarctic Extractive Industries Thematic Network One-week PhD & Masters course; Oct/17in Reykjavik & Akureyri, Iceland Gordon B Cooke, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada

2. Assigned readings (1 of 4): • Betcherman & Lowe (1997) – ‘Backgrounder’ on ‘The Future of Work in Canada’ (slide 1 of 1) • 6 ‘disturbing’ trends (detected by 1997): • Persistently high unemployment • Underemployment, even among those educated • The spread of non-standard forms of work • Polarization of incomes, job conditions, and work hours • Earnings stagnation (and effects on living standards), • New management strategies redefining the employment relationship • 3 scenarios for the future (i.e. predicted for now): • Technology not people (pessimistic) • Work not jobs (optimistic, but with risks) • Almost business as usual (mildly pessimistic and many risks) • 4 possible policy levers to sustain economic growth, distribute opportunities fairly, and maintain ‘social cohesion’: • Refocus monetary & fiscal policy • Redistributing work • Education & training • Worker representation • How accurate were B&L’s (1997) predictions? For whom? Why? How? • What changes are coming next? • GBC: The policy levers are nice ideas, but are they feasible???

3. Assigned readings (2 of 4): • Hall & Soskice (2001): An Introduction to Varieties of Capitalism (slide 1 of 1) • They suggest that we keep firms at the center of analyses, and that it is important to blend business studies with comparative political economy. (GBC: I think of political economy as the conflict and interaction between stakeholders leading to the economic and social conditions that exist in a given jurisdiction.) • They feel that broad conceptualizations are helpful, but that emphasis should also be placed on the strategic options and actions and interactions of key stakeholders. • So, we are being advised to look at micro and macro influences when looking at conditions of work. GBC: don’t fuss about wages. Look broadly at security and quality of life, including during economic peaks and troughs. • Liberal Market Economies (LMEs): are market-driven, featuring competitive arrangements; arms-length exchanges for self gain • Coordinated Market Economies (CMEs): involves intensive planning, interaction, and partnering between major stakeholders (including workers/labour, employers, and government) • In LMEs, paid employment is high, but so too is income inequality, typically. • In CMEs, paid hours and income are more uniformly (fairly??) distributed.

4. Assigned readings (3a of 4): • Bjørsted, Bova, & Dahl (2016): Lessons learnt from the Nordics: How to fight long-term unemployment (slide 1 of 2) • This study looks at Sweden and Denmark, and compares them (implicitly) to the rest of Europe. • Due to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, unemployment spiked in most industrialized nations, and has been slow to recede fully. • This has led to a cohort of long-employed persons. The longer unemployed, the harder to reintegrate into any (meaningful) employment. • At the end of 2015, Sweden and Denmark had unemployment rates of 7% and 6%, respectively, which is well below the EU average of 9%. • The authors believe that ‘well-designed active labour market policies’ account for the relatively low unemployment rates, as opposed to the ‘degree of labour market flexibility’. • The authors take exception to labour economists’ perceptions that it is desirable and logical to make labour markets more dynamics and flexible (i.e. less regulated).

5. Assigned readings (3b of 4): • Bjørsted, Bova, & Dahl (2016): Lessons learnt from the Nordics: How to fight long-term unemployment (slide 2 of 2) • Issue to ponder: Is there a positive association between unemployment insurance and the rate of unemployment? That is, if social payments are available and generous, will people be more likely to use them, and use them for longer? Evidence is mixed (GBC: and analysis is subjective. I think that there is a positive association, but there are options to mitigate via additional active labour market policies). • Danish flexicurity model: easy for employers to shed workers, but there is a generous social safety net for those displaced. • Sweden has much more protection for employed workers, and so employment dropped less there during the crisis. But, Sweden has less protection for those unemployed (but still more than elsewhere). GBC: employers also hesitate to hire when and where restrictive firing policies exist. • Both countries are doing well, and both emphasize active labour market policies. That is, they try to get people trained and focused on the types of jobs that are available. (GBC: contrast that with the 420 hour EI trap in rural NL.) • GBC: note the blurb at the end of this source: Scandinavian countries have tax and salary and working time policies/norms to reduce inequality.

6. Assigned readings (4 of 4): • Hoogensen Gjørv, G. (2012). Security by any other name: Negative security, positive security, and a multi-actor security approach. Review of international Studies, 38(04), 835-859. • Protection from insecurity is one element, but positive security is ‘enabling’ – it means having good and just outcomes, and not just avoidance of negatives • If positive security depends upon ‘relations’, or cooperation, between actors, then positive economic security depends on cooperation between economic stakeholders in a given region. • Gord taking liberties: • From a corporate view, it is reasonable to expect parties to seek clarification about investment size, the range of possible financial returns for that investment, and clarity on the timeline of when those expected returns are likely to occur. In turn, from a community view, it is reasonable to ask: what are the financial benefits that we will or could receive, and how will they be distributed? What are the environmental, social and other costs that are likely to occur, and what has been done to reduce if not minimize them? And what is the magnitude of the expected costs relative to the magnitude of the expected benefits, and is it feasible to ensure that everyone receives a net benefit?

7. Discussion questions and issues • Based on the assigned readings and your Arctic Circle session notes…: • The question is not ‘if’ but ‘what’… To what labour market interventions are rural and remote people entitled? Should they differ from the interventions that others (in less remote locations) should be able to access? • Gord’s favourite question: If not extractive industries and not tourism, then what can economically sustain rural/remote communities? • Do local people have a right to stop resource extraction projects that they do not like? (I presume that we all say ‘yes’.) Okay, but don’t local people have to consider the economic alternatives, and aren’t those alternatives dependent upon the active labour market policies and other government policies that are in place? • Gord’s final thought: the citizens of most rural communities ,must deal with aging, shrinking populations, and relatively limited local employment options. To presume that all communities will thrive in the future is overly optimistic. Some of the obstacles (mentioned in Betcherman and Lowe (1997)) have been emerging for decades, and, I believe, are irreversible. Yikes.