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This presentation provides estimates of the number of deaths caused by smoking in Bulgaria, with a particular emphasis on deaths in middle age (ages 35-69). Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net.
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Deaths from smoking in Bulgaria
Deaths from smokingin Bulgaria • Particular emphasis is given to the number of deathsin middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69) • Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net • This presentation provides estimates of the number of deaths caused by smoking in Bulgaria
Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000” • Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data • Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by an international team of scientists: – Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford – Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland – Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford – Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Bulgaria Deaths from smoking, 1980 to 2000 • About 71% (178,000) of them were still in middleagewhen they died • This was about one in four of all the deaths inmiddle age during this period (178,000 out ofthe 788,000 deaths at ages 35-69) • About 251,00 people died from smoking during this 20-year period in Bulgaria www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Bulgaria, year 2000 Annual deaths from smoking • About 8,000 die in middle age from smoking • Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years • About 20 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking • Smoking kills about 11,000 people a year in Bulgaria www.deathsfromsmoking.net
11,000smoking 4,653*non-medical Murder/assault Falls Suicide Drowning Road accidents Poisoning Plane crashes Fires Train crashes Floods/storms Accidents at work Other natural disasters Accidents at home Other accidents *in year 2000 Bulgaria, year 2000 Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together www.deathsfromsmoking.net
3,300cancer* 5,800vascular (heart disease, stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins) 900respiratory 1,000other *includes 2,300 (79%) ofthe 2,909 lung cancer deaths Bulgaria, year 2000 Smoking kills 11,000 people a year,from many different diseases www.deathsfromsmoking.net
3,300 (22%) from smoking 15,300total cancer deaths 3,100 (35%)from smoking 8,800male 200 (3%)from smoking 6,500female Bulgaria, year 2000 About one in five of all cancer deathsis due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Male deaths in middle age from smoking • This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age • The next three slides concentrate on male deathsin middle age • The main pattern of increase and, eventually, decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Bulgaria, year 2000 About one in three of all deaths inmiddle-aged men is due to smoking* *7,400 (30%) of the25,000 deaths at ages 35-69 www.deathsfromsmoking.net
• 43 die in middle age* • 12 of these 43 deaths are from smoking 43% 12 *risks at year 2000death rates for ages 35-69 Bulgaria, year 2000 Of 100 men aged 35 years … www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Smoking All causes 1985199019952000 41% 12 13 42% 14 44% 12 43% *risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69 Bulgaria, 1985-2000 Male death in middle age: changing hazards* www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Bulgaria, year 2000 Summary for the whole population In Bulgaria: • Smoking kills about 11,000 men and women every year • About 8,000 die in middle age from smoking • Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together • About one in five of all cancer deaths is due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Messages for the individual smoker • Those killed in middle age lose many years • Stopping smoking works • Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco • Stopping before middle age works even better • The risk is big: about half are killed www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Deaths from smoking:an electronic resource • www.deathsfromsmoking.net • Published by • International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006 • Funded by • Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of Oxford • International Union Against Cancer (UICC) • Fogarty International Center, US NIH • UK Medical Research Council • Cancer Research UK • Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian Boreham • Project management Sinéad Jones • Advice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish Cotter • Design bwa-design.co.uk