Establishing Cause-Effect Relationships for Air Pollutants and Forest Health in Oil Sands Region

1. The Way Forward Decisions Approved in 2007 Kevin Percy SSC Indicators Meeting Calgary May 4-5, 2010

2. Acknowledgements • Science Advisors Doug Maynard, Allan Legge • TEEM Science Subcommittee 2007 • WBEA ED Carna MacEachern • Veronica Chisholm TEEM PM • Funders

3. Monitoring Design Objective To Implement An Approach for Establishing/Determining Cause-Effect Relationships Between Air Pollutants And Forest Ecosystem Health in the Oil Sands Region

4. Decision 1. Adopt Forest Health Approach • “The capacity to supply and allocate water, nutrients and energy in ways that increase or maintain productivity while maintaining resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses”* *McLaughlin, S., Percy, K. 1999. Forest health in North America: some perspectives on actual and potential roles of climate and air pollution. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 116: 151-197.

5. Forest and Ecosystem Health • WBEA adopted “Forest Health” approach to monitoring • M&P 99 as ratified by the UNFF in 2003 • Pattern and Ecologically-based • “…structured to evaluate responses at appropriate frequencies across gradients of forest resources that sustain them”* • “…supplemental process-oriented investigations that more thoroughly test causes and effect relationships among stresses and responses”*

6. Decision 2. Shift Conceptual Design • 1998- 2004 : Categorically– based • 2008 - : Pattern-oriented- and Ecologically-based

7. Decision 3. Relax area restriction • A forest is • “a 1 ha minimum area, 25% canopy cover of trees that have the potential to reach 5 m height at maturity”. www.carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca

8. Decision 4. Design to Maintain Integrity Under Rapid Development *Scott 1998. Sampling methods for estimating change in forest resources. Ecol. Appl. 8, 228-233.

9. Decision 5. Co-measure indicators and responses in space and time* • Process = 8-10 internal and edge pairings • Portable = 10-15 20 m tower Stand edge sources 2 m early warning 20 m Regional representation

10. New Approach: Exposure-response science to support airshed management decisions Requirement: Co-measure appropriate receptor indicators Requirement: Appropriate plot distribution across gradient of stressors Requirement: Co-measure exposure/deposition Figure from Jones & Assoc. 2007.

11. Air quality indicators • O3, SO2, NO2, NH3, HNO3, (passive) • O3, CO2 , NO, NO2 (continuous) • PM (ECOTECH Micro Vol 1100 Particulate Sampler) • Bulk open and through-fall chemistry • Ion Exchange Resins (IER)

12. Meteorological indicators • Wind speed/direction (2D) • Air temperature • Relative humidity • Solar radiation • Leaf wetness • Precipitation

13. Above-ground indicators • Tree diameter increment • Leaf area index • Needle surface physicochemical condition • Needle retention

14. Above-ground indicators • Foliar chemistry • S inorganic/organic ratio; Ca, Mg etc, selected trace elements; stable isotopes • Lichen vigor • Biodiversity (ground veg. frequency, composition)

15. Soil Indicators • Soil temperature • Soil moisture content • Nutrient supply rate (soil solution chemistry) • Litter-fall • Organic matter biomass • Organic layer(s) respiration • Biological community structure

16. Endpoint Measurement • Tree diameter • dendro bands* • Estimated tree volume • Forest health *McLaughlin, S.B., Nosal, M., Wullschleger, S.D., Sun, G. 2007a. Interactive effects of ozone and climate on tree growth and water use in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA. New Phytologist 174, 109-124

17. Where are we now?

18. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SOURCE Emissions characterization, apportionment Transformation photochemstry, PM2.5 chemistry dry, wet, bulk Deposition Transfer to terrestrial deposition velocities Effects on Individuals foliar, tree, bryophytes, lichens, lower vascular, soil biology Effects on Assemblages Stand, bog, composition, condition, growth Biogeochemistry N, S, H2O, Bioaccumulation traditional food quality days years decades Structure and Function OM cycle, fine roots, insects, climate, NPP Water (ground, wetlands) SINK

19. Jack Pine-Effects Monitoring: Analogous plot network and site instrumentation Second tower plot 201 (2009 ) 135 km W of source area New ecologically analogous sites located in 2008 (yellow) and 2009 (red)

20. The Goal: Co-Measurement of receptor Indicators /Inputs and Linking Cause-Effect Long-term 4-level data from 30 m tower Early warning

21. Level 1 and II plots • Stratification • across pattern of deposition • modeling/lichen receptor concentrations define pattern • Level II • continuous met data, pollutant input, receptor response above - and below-ground • Long-term and early warning • Define cause-effect relationships, develop response surfaces • Level I • Detection of change in key indicators • Early warning • Data for response surfaces and scaling up Level II Also called process and “portable” plots

22. Alberta Oil Sands Environmental Research Program1975-1981 • 13 jack pine plots/one major source • Soil microbiology: no difference adjacent (2.3 km) and distant (10 km) • No relationship x-sec area increment ratio before (1958-67) and after (1968-77) Suncor operation • Lichen transplants (Evernia): uptake/retention of S in lichen complex, more study needed • Soil core experiments: “no heavy metals from Suncor will have a deleterious effect on jack pine stands” • “Having modelers and biologists working together would not be without benefits to modeling. Models are of no practical use without verification…” Addison, L’Hirondelle, Maynard, Malhotra, Khan 1986. Effects of oil sands processing emissions on the boreal forest. CFS Info Report NOR-X-284, Edmonton.

23. Next Long-term Sampling Cycle in 2011 Our Task: Indicator Validation