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Economic Outlook 2018: Growth Slows but Remains Stable

Despite a slowdown in economic growth, the recovery is still supported by manufacturing, service sectors, and a strong global economy. Factors like world trade, inflation, and interest rate rises will impact outcomes.

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Economic Outlook 2018: Growth Slows but Remains Stable

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  1. Economic outlook for 2018 Geoff Tily

  2. Economic growth down but not out “The recovery has been driven by both the manufacturing and the service sectors, supported by the weaker pound and a buoyant global economy, while construction output continues to lag.” (NIESR)

  3. Economic growth down but not out

  4. Economic growth down but not out

  5. Economic growth greatly down but not out

  6. Factors likely to affect outcomes

  7. World trade: “Broad- based upturn, but for how long?”World Bank, Economic Prospects Report, January 2018 Source: World Bank

  8. World Trade: Impact on UK industries

  9. World trade: weaker consumption, stronger trade

  10. Lower inflation, ? higher incomes

  11. Lower inflation, higher incomes (NB RPI) Source: OBR

  12. 2018 is on track to be the first year since the financial crisis that the global economy will be operating at or near full capacity. World Bank Interest rate rises / capacity By 2019, GDP growth is projected to ease mildly in the majority of major economies as capacity constraints begin to emerge, OECD Our models … tell a broadly consistent story of an economy operating close to potential. OBR, Nov. EFO p. 43 Unemployment has continued to fall and the extent of spare capacity in the economy now seems limited. BoE, Nov. 2017

  13. Interest rate rises: but questions over inflation

  14. (Global) QE withdrawn

  15. Ongoing austerity

  16. Factors likely to affect outcomes

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