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Profiling Latvian Emigrants Using Administrative Data for the 2021 Census

This presentation discusses the use of individual administrative data to construct a demographic and socio-economic profile of modern Latvian emigrants. It covers emigration trends, data sources and methods, literature review, and the results and conclusions of the research.

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Profiling Latvian Emigrants Using Administrative Data for the 2021 Census

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  1. University of Latvia Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences Preparing for 2021 Census: Use of the individual administrative data for profiling of the Latvian emigrants Phd student SigitaŠulca 18. – 19. October Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders 2018 Bamberg,Germany

  2. Outline of the presentation Research aim and questions Emigration trends from Latvia Data and methods Literature review Results Conclusions

  3. Research aim To construct a demographic and socio-economic profile of the modern Latvian emigrant using administrative data at the individual level.

  4. Research questions • How many persons emigrated from different demographic and socio – economic groups? • Which territories lost more population (which groups)? • Destination of the typical Latvian emigrant?

  5. Emgiration trends from Latvia • Latvia - from 2014-2016 54 thousand emigration cases (according to Central Statistical Bureu of Latvia) Internationallong-term migration; 1990–2017

  6. Data and methods • Emigrants of 2014 – 2016 • Data at individual level • Combination from different data sources • Population Register of the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs • Ministry of Education and Science • 32 higher education institutions • Using SPSS exploratory data analysis and descriptive statistics

  7. Literature review • Methods for measuring of the migration (Chiswick 1978; Massey 1993; Stark 1991; Poulain etal. 1993; DeSipio 1996; Hill 1997; Portes1997; BretteIl 1981; Montello 2001; Krišjāne, et al. 2007; Mieriņa et al. 2015 etc). • Migrant profiles – methods, data sources, data analysis, advantages and disadvantages of the methods (Kertzer and Hogan 1989; Baganha 1990; Poulain etal. 1993;Kurekova 2011; Grabowska-Lusinska 2013; King 2015;Lulle 2016; Waren.,Kerwin 2017 etc)

  8. Results: regionality of emigration

  9. Results • The majority of emigrants from regions are aged 25 to 29 with the exception of Riga where the majority of emigrants are aged 25 to 34;

  10. Citizenship of emigrants by regions; 2016

  11. Marital status and the family composition2014 - 2016

  12. Destination of Latvian emigrants2014 - 2016

  13. Proportion of emigrants and usual residents by level of education, % (18+)

  14. Most typical modern Latvian emigrant • young (25-29 years old), • unmarried • Latvian man • from Kurzeme or Latgale region • secondary education

  15. Conclusions • The largest proportion of population have emigrated from western part Kurzeme (1.2%), but the highest number of emigrants is registered from eastern part Latgale. • Emigrant profiles in Latvia mostly differ between core and peripheral territories. • Overall, Latvia is loosing young men with secondary education and young women with university degree – arises risk to upcoming labor shortages and high risk for demography in future. • Administrative data is an exhaustive and convenient tool, but they should be analyzed carefully, taking into account different influences from artificial “signs of life”.

  16. Further steps • The results will be compared with the outputs of surveys on migration • Profiling will be completed with occupational, employment and income indicators • Emigrant profiles will help: • to predict the probability of emigration from the geographic, demographic and socio - economic perspective; • to develop policy planning proposals on reduction of emigration; • to design and implement socio - economic, fiscal, labour policy.

  17. Thank you for attention!

  18. Sources Arango, J. 2000 “Explaining migration: a critical view.” International Social Science Journal 52 (165): 283-296.; Massey, Douglas S. 1999. “Why does immigration occur? A theoretical synthesis.” In: Charles Hirschman et al. (Eds), The Handbook of International Migration. The Russel Sage Foundation. Bauer, T., Klaus, F. Z. 1999. “Assessment of possible migration pressure and its labor market impact following EU enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe.” A study for the Department of Education and Employment, UK. IZA Research Report No.3, July. Clemens, M. A., Claudio M., and Lant P. 2008. “The Place Premium: Wage Differences for Identical Workers across the U.S. Border. “ CGD Working Paper 148. Washington, D.C.: Centre for Global Development.) Emigration data 2014 – 2016, http://data.csb.gov.lv/sq/17984 Harris, J., Todaro, M.P. 1970 “Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis.” American Economic Review 60: 126-142. Hicks, J.R. 1932 “The Theory of Wages” London: Macmillan. ISCED 2011 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/other_documents/isced_2011/index.cfm?TargetUrl=DSP_ISCED_2011 King, R. 2012 “Theories and Typologies of Migration: an Overview and a Primer.” Willy Brandt Series of Working Papers in International Migration and Ethnic Relations 3/12. Malmo University Krišjāne, Z. et et al., (2007) Geographic mobility of the labour force., 2007 University of Latvia. - p. 164. Kurekova, L. 2011 “Theories of migration: Conceptual review and empirical testing in the context of the EU East-West flows.” Interdisciplinary conference on Migration. Economic Change, social Change. University College London. Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaci, A., Pellegrino, A., Taylor, J.E. 1993. “Theories of international migration: a review and appraisal,” Population and Development Review 19 (3): 431-466. Method of preparing population statistics, 2012 http://www.csb.gov.lv/sites/default/files/dati/demstat_metodologija_eng.pdf Mieriņa I. et et al., 2015 The Latvian Emigrant Communities: A Hope for the Diaspora., 2015 Agency Radar. - p. 25 Poulain, M., Perrin, N. and Singleton, A. (eds) (2006) Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration: Scientific Recommendations (THESIM). Louvain-la-Neuve: UniversitéCatholique de Louvain Presses Universitaires de Louvain Sassen, S. 1988. The Mobility of Labor and Capital. A study of international investment and labor flows. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Silver, B. 2003. Forces of Labor. Workers’ Movements and Globalization since 1870. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Sjaadstad, L. 1962. “The costs and returns of human migration,” Journal of Political Economy 70: 80-93. Skeldon, R. 1997. Migration and Development. A Global perspective. Longman Limited. Stark, O. 1991. The migration of labor. Cambridge: Basil Blackwell. Tomas, P. A. Santo, Summers, L. H. 2009. “Migrants Count. Five Steps Toward Better Migration Data.” 29. Washington, D.C.: Commission on International Migration Data for Development Research and Policy.) Wallerstein, E. 1974. The Modern World System. Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World Economy in the 16-th Century. New York.: Academic Press.

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