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The Art and Science of Decision-Making

The Art and Science of Decision-Making. February 24, 2014. Robert S. Duboff Robert.Duboff@hawkpartners.com 617-576-4701. Essay – Due via Email by 5pm, March 3.

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The Art and Science of Decision-Making

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  1. The Art and Science of Decision-Making February 24, 2014 Robert S. Duboff Robert.Duboff@hawkpartners.com 617-576-4701

  2. Essay – Due via Email by 5pm, March 3 Pick an important past decision made by you, or your company, or by a jury, a CEO or a politician/office holder, etc., and write about how non-rational human factors help to explain the decision. In your 2-3 page essay: • Describe the decision and the rational grounds for it • Using the readings and discussions in this course so far, detail the subjective factors that likely played a role • Provide your opinion about whether the decision was a good one and how the process and/or outcome could have been improved

  3. Extraverts/Introverts within the U.S. Population Extraverts 49% 51% Introverts Men: 48% E 52% I Women: 50% E 50% I Class ‘13: 62.5% E 37.5% I This Class:61% E 39% I Source: Center for Applications of Psychological Type (capt.org)

  4. Judgers and Perceivers within the U.S. Population 43% Perceivers 57% Judgers Men: 58% J 42% P Women: 56% J 44% P Class ‘13: 68% J 32% P This Class:82% J 18% P Source: Center for Applications of Psychological Type (capt.org)

  5. Thinkers/Feelers within the U.S. Population 55% Feelers 45% Thinkers Men: 61% T 39% F Women: 29% T 71% F Class ‘13: 55% T 45% F This Class:29% T 71% F Source: Center for Applications of Psychological Type (capt.org)

  6. Sensors/Intuitives within the U.S. Population Intuitives 30% 70% Sensors Men: 68% S 32% N Women: 72% S 28% N Class ‘13: 52% S 48% N This Class:25% S 75% N Source: Center for Applications of Psychological Type (capt.org)

  7. The 16 Types – General Population (Class) Sensing Types Intuitive Types ISTJ ISFJ INFJ INTJ 13% (5%) 12% (7%) 2% (11%) 3% (11%) Introverts ISTP ISFP INFP INTP 7% (0%) 5% (0%) 4% (7%) 5% (0%) ESTP ESFP ENFP ENTP 4% (0%) 3% (0%) 7% (11%) 7% (0%) Extraverts ESTJ ESFJ ENFJ ENTJ 11% (7%) 4% (28%) 2% (7%) 11% (7%)

  8. The Five Components of Emotional Intelligence (or beyond the MBTI) • Self-awareness • Self-regulation • Motivation • Empathy • Social skills • … and don’t forget risk

  9. Key Questions to Resolve • What are the implications if you think a decision was made on scientific or artistic (rational or emotional) grounds? • By a computer or by chance? • Legitimacy/acceptance?? • Do we believe that every important decision depends on the decision-maker or not? • Do we believe there is a “right answer?” • How do we understand or analyze decisions of others? • Project from our self • Infer • Use stereotypes • Which is more important for success in business: IQ or EQ?

  10. A Rational Decision-Making Process • Define the problem • Identify the criteria • Weight the criteria • Generate alternatives • Rate each alternative on each criterion • Compute the optimal decision Source: Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making, Max Bazerman.

  11. When Should We Blink and When Should We Think? Blink Think Commodity brand purchases Mushrooms in restaurant Mystery Interviewing people Old/familiar The whole Considered brand purchase Mushrooms in forest Puzzle Interviewing people, if biased New The piece parts Is there a choice to blink? To think?

  12. Implications for Market Research What can respondents reliably respond about/to? How about decision-makers? Just follow?

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