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The Art and Science of Decision-Making

The Art and Science of Decision-Making. March 3, 2014. Robert S. Duboff Robert.Duboff@hawkpartners.com 617-576-4701. Reprise of course so far. Focus on important decisions where there is time to think

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The Art and Science of Decision-Making

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  1. The Art and Science of Decision-Making March 3, 2014 Robert S. Duboff Robert.Duboff@hawkpartners.com 617-576-4701

  2. Reprise of course so far • Focus on important decisions where there is time to think • Consensus that there is individuality, if not art, in the actual decision itself though can/should be science in the process leading up to decision • A key question is whether we can improve decisions to make them better than a coin toss or computer • Starting with self-awareness; then to group decisions

  3. Thinking about what we have covered so far • Can we think of “facts” as “science” and “opinion” as “art?” • Can decisions be made totally based on “facts?” • Should a decision outcome depend on whom is making it? • What are the characteristics of a good decision?

  4. Considerations • If IQ measures type 2 thinking, what measures type 1 thinking? • Should we care? • Does IQ influence quality of decisions? • Is there a third type of “thinking” or “blinking” or only these two? • What about morality and/or conscience? • Is there a difference between a bad decision and a wrong decision? • What are the types of thinking mistakes that influence decisions?

  5. Decision-making problems are abundant • Perceptions/personality types differ • Priming • Framing • Anchoring • Availability • WYSIATI • Cognitive dissonance • Self-delusion • Inertia

  6. Timing of decisions • Why is this important to class members? • Implication of MBTI • Implications of Thinking Fast and Slow • Does speed of decision imply Type 1 influence and/or a potentially unthoughtful decision without due diligence? • Is a slow, deliberate decision a better one than a fast one?

  7. The Art/Science Matrix Think of decision as personality/art-based Think of decision as scientifically-based Valid facts are available and important 1 2 Facts are not available and/or not important 3 4 = philosopher king/queen

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