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Monitoring & evaluation after 2013 – Concepts and ideas, sections 1+2 (concepts)

This paper discusses key ideas in monitoring and evaluation post-2013, emphasizing clarity in identifying changes, factors affecting indicators, observable outputs, and non-observable impacts. It highlights theory-based and counterfactual evaluations and the importance of combining methods for comprehensive assessment.

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Monitoring & evaluation after 2013 – Concepts and ideas, sections 1+2 (concepts)

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  1. Monitoring & evaluation after 2013 – Concepts and ideas, sections 1+2 (concepts) Evaluation network MS - DG REGIO 14th April 2011, Kai Stryczynski

  2. Why this paper? • Wrapping up some key ideas discussed in past few years on M+E • Step towards single REGIO guidance paper for 2014 • Time for discussion and preparation

  3. What do you want to change? • Programme priorities should clarify what they want to change - what concern is driving your intervention? • Express the precise dimension of change by a result (outcome) indicator • Clear expression of desired change is precondition for later M + E – cannot be fixed later on.

  4. How do you want to change things? • Put on paper what factors you think are likely to affect your result indicator – and how • Select the factor(s) the public programme should influence – what would the programme produce? • You have found your output indicator and described an intervention logic

  5. Monitoring: what can be observed. • Can outputs be observed? • Yes! Output monitoring. • Can changes in result indicators – driven by many factors - be observed? • Yes! Surveys, statistics, expert judgement,... • Can the share of factors contributing to the result indicator be observed? • No! Only their sum is observable.

  6. Evaluation: an inquiry into the non-observable • Distinguishing the contribution of the programme – the impact – from the effect of other factors. • Theory-based evaluations inquire the mechanisms that make a contribution of the programme happen. • Counterfactual evaluations put a number on the contribution of the programme to the change.

  7. Combine approaches and mix methods • Both types of impact evaluation answer complementary questions – so combine them. • Any inquiry delivers hints and partial answers – look at problems with different methods for a safe judgement.

  8. After and beyond this paper • Please comment on Concepts and Ideas (end of May) • Change into draft REGIO guidance paper after publication of legislative proposals (July) • EVALSED: methods for evaluation – continuing update

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