Future of Application Development Keith Jaeger

1. Future of ApplicationDevelopmentKeith Jaeger

2. Unprecedented Change • Huge amounts will be spent to change applications in the next 5 years • The rate of change will increase the risk to development projects - which already “fail” up to 90% of the time (IDC) • The opportunity to make MIS a competitive advantage consequently grows for those who know how to succeed

3. Driving Forces Behind Change Technology Driven Feature Driven Cost Driven

4. Mandated Business Changes Technology Driven Feature Driven Cost Driven Year 2000 European Currency

5. Two Strategies Application Patch Application Rewrite Application

6. Budget Impact of Patching $1.00 a line of code Technology Driven Feature Driven Cost Driven Year 2000 European Currency

7. Driving Forces Behind Change Technology Driven Distributed Computing Components Feature Driven Cost Driven

8. Increased Pace of Technology Change VS

9. Technology Risks Smalltalk Glockenspiel CGI Bin Gupta Taligent OpenDoc ADcycle NEXT MOTIF Token Ring OS/2

11. “N-Tier” Client Server NT MVS HP/UX HP/UX Windows client NT AS/400 AS/400

12. Dynamic Partitioning Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers NT PgmB Client PgmA HP PgmB PgmB AS/400 PgmB AS/400 PgmB

13. SMP’s and Clustering Application Task Processor #1 Processor #4 Processor #2 Processor #3

14. Cost Pressures Technology Driven Feature Driven Cost Driven New Platforms Labor Shortages Packages

15. Labor Challenges • Labor Shortage • Skills Mismatch • Shortening Tenure Cost of skilled developers:

16. Software Economics Software becomes a commodity • Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):Don’t write software for less than 100,000 customers - $10 million = $1000 price • Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 customers - $10 million = $100 Price = Fixed Cost + Marginal Cost Units

17. The 90’s - Move to Packages Efficiencies of Multiple Implementations

18. Grove’s Law - Horizontal Consolidation • Breaks old vertical model • Each layer picks best from lower layer • A dominant player tends to emerge in each layer • Different layers for different price points/hardware

19. Pressure to integrate with “complete solution” New applications move to “generic” list “Generic” Layer Within Applications

20. Extend to other platforms Redefine layers to leverage dominance Dominant Players “Stretch” Layers

21. Moore’s Law • Hardware technologyimproves 4X every 3 years • While someimprovementmeans morecapacity at thesame price,there is a downward pressure on prices

22. Gordon Bell’s Platform Economics Software prices follow hardware prices

23. Cost Pressure Software price follows hardware However, costs remain constant

24. Application Growth Segments • New Hardware Markets • NT • Internet • Hand held • Home applications • Lower price, little differentiation • New Vertical Niches • High price, highly customized

25. Customization to Fill Gap SolutionPrice Customization PackagePrice

26. Reuse Through O-O Procedural Relational Object Oriented

27. Failed to Take Hold in Applications Procedural Relational Object Oriented

28. New Answer: Components Procedural Relational Object Oriented Components

29. Components

30. Component Types • VBX controls • Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc. • ActiveX controls • similar to VBX • 32 bit COM controls • Internet enabled • Java beans • Internet enabled • Downloadable to browser

31. Benefits AS/400 NT Allows you to mix your objects with others on other platforms at any time

32. Move to “Business Components” Packages Business Components Controls

33. Large Scale Business Components Business Object User Classes

34. Jaeger’s Law The more complex a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use Corollary: The more business content in a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use

35. Gartner View of Options Packages Components Templates Cost Custom Flexibility

36. Next Major Leap • Packages/components that can be customized at a lower cost • More flexibility like templates • Reuse like business components Vendors (or in-house development) that achieve these two objectives will establish dominance in the next cycle

37. Template “Types”

38. Building a Kitchen • Plug-ins: add customization into a pre-built kitchen • Frameworks: customize by following rules to extend a kitchen blueprint • Patterns: customization draws a new blueprint

39. End User Control of Desktop Fixed Character Windows Desktop Browser Navigation Customized Display

40. End User Control of Behavior Fixed Programs “.Ini File” Control Control ofBusiness Rules

41. Driving Forces Technology Driven Distributed Computing Components Feature Driven Cost Driven New Platforms Packages Year 2000 European Currency

42. Conclusions • Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K, EUC, Web, NT, components • NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower, but not necessarily solution price • Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to customize • New tools and development technologies will take on increased importance