Using the climate of the past to predict the climate of the future

4. Climate Sensitivity

5. Likely range of mean global temperature increase by the end of the 21st Century

16. created by perturbing 14 uncertain atmospheric and oceanic parameters, and executed under constant volcanic and solar forcing scenarios for 200 years by internet volunteers. Models with little oceanic temperature drift in the second 100 years are selected and used for transient forcing experiments. created by perturbing 14 uncertain atmospheric and oceanic parameters, and executed under constant volcanic and solar forcing scenarios for 200 years by internet volunteers. Models with little oceanic temperature drift in the second 100 years are selected and used for transient forcing experiments.

23. Figure 1: Locations of the regional temperature reconstructions and their counterparts in the FAMOUS model grid. Red /blue boxes identify warm/cold seasons. The respective season and first year of each proxy record is indicated within each box.Figure 1: Locations of the regional temperature reconstructions and their counterparts in the FAMOUS model grid. Red /blue boxes identify warm/cold seasons. The respective season and first year of each proxy record is indicated within each box.

30. Figure 4: Simulated averaged European annual-mean temperature change from the period 1970-1999 to 2070-2099 for the 627 of the simulations used in Figures 2-3 that also have complete data in the 2070-2099 period. Ranking based on full proxy period (top) and instrumental-only period (bottom). Horizontal axis holds the temperature change, while the vertical axis holds the normalized T-statistic (note increasing negative values upwards). All T-values larger than zero have been set to zero. Dashed vertical lines denote the range of the dark-red coloured best-ranked (~3%) simulations. Dashed horizontal line denote the 1% level for rejecting the null hypothesis that a forced simulation is equivalent with an unforced one.Figure 4: Simulated averaged European annual-mean temperature change from the period 1970-1999 to 2070-2099 for the 627 of the simulations used in Figures 2-3 that also have complete data in the 2070-2099 period. Ranking based on full proxy period (top) and instrumental-only period (bottom). Horizontal axis holds the temperature change, while the vertical axis holds the normalized T-statistic (note increasing negative values upwards). All T-values larger than zero have been set to zero. Dashed vertical lines denote the range of the dark-red coloured best-ranked (~3%) simulations. Dashed horizontal line denote the 1% level for rejecting the null hypothesis that a forced simulation is equivalent with an unforced one.