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Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?

Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?. Rania el Masri, Ph.D. Environment and Energy Policy Specialist Cairo, May 8, 2012. State of our water commons. Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 ( m3/capita/ yr ).

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Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?

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  1. Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’? Rania el Masri, Ph.D. Environment and Energy Policy Specialist Cairo, May 8, 2012

  2. State of our water commons

  3. Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr)

  4. Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr)

  5. Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr) Water scarcity level (< 1000) Water Crisis level (< 500) Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)

  6. Freshwater availability: 1955-2025 (m3/capita/yr)

  7. Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025

  8. Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 -

  9. Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining… Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010

  10. Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025

  11. population growth: 1950-2050 Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year) • GCC population: to double by 2040 • Maghreb population: to double by 2060

  12. State of our water commons • Decreasing supply • Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined • Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita) • Population growth • Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social demands Plus Projected impacts of climate change decreasing supply and increasing demand

  13. Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.

  14. State of our water commons: leakage

  15. Water supply and uses For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006)

  16. Although irrigated agriculture accounts for more than 80% of water use in the region, irrigated areas are limited and represent only 29% of the arable lands and 32% of the cultivated areas

  17. Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011

  18. Impacts of our water crisis

  19. Impact of water crisis: who gets water? Population without access to improved water sources (2010) Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010)

  20. Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean? Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)

  21. (Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand • Direct impacts • … increased cost • … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization) • Indirect impacts • … increased poverty • … increased health risks • …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector • Decreased ecosystem health

  22. Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable

  23. DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth Increased consumption PRESSURES IMPACTS Human well-being: Economic, social goods & services Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement RESPONSES Mitigation and adaptation Ecosystem services Farmer liveilhoods State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT

  24. Current Responses • Desalination • GCC: more than 50% of their domestic water use consumption comes from desalination • Energy usage: drinking oil? • Impact on marine life • Privatization • UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: PPP • Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon) • Risk of cost • Reuse of drainage water • Practiced on a large scale in Egypt • More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

  25. Additional necessary responses • Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning) • Develop a water commons • Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ • Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package • Sequential water use • Wise agricultural management (from exporting virtual water to farmer support)  Water as a human right

  26. DRIVERS Population growth Increased consumption HUMAN SOCIETY PRESSURES IMPACTS Human well-being: Economic, social goods & services Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement • RESPONSES • Reduce consumption • Develop a water commons • Water as a human right Ecosystem services Farmer liveilhoods State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT

  27. Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine

  28. Theft of Palestinian Water

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