Overview of India’s Integrated Agromet -Advisory Service (AAS) Program by Dr. N.Chattopadhyay

1. Overview of India’s Integrated Agromet-Advisory Service (AAS) Program by Dr. N.Chattopadhyay Head Agricultural Meteorology Division India Meteorological Department Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India (nabansu.nc@gmail.com)

2. Outline……. Present day need of weather service to Indian Agriculture Addressing the need of the service by the Indian Government Observation Forecast Agromet Advisory Services system in India District level Agromet Advisories Communication/dissemination Feedback Challenges Preparedness to face the future challenges

3. Weather & Challenges facing Agriculture in India Agriculture is highly dependent on weather and subject to its variability. Possible impacts of climate change. Sustainability of intensive agriculture using current technologies the context of the global climate change. Long-term changes and the increasing frequency of extreme weather. Changes in hydrological regimes. Therefore, the problem is being addressed collectively by scientists, administrators, planners and society.

4. Components of Variability in Weather & Climate in India • Heat/Cold Wave • More variable R/F • Increased Extremes Weather Events • Erratic Onset, advance and retrieval of Monsoon • Shift in Active/break cycles • Intensity and frequency of Monsoon lows/depressions

5. Banana trees damaged by heavy rain and uprooted by high winds in Tamilnadu and Kerala, April 2011 Coconut palms are vulnerable to the effects of heavy rain and lightning, October 2011 Extreme Weather and Damages to Crops

6. Weather Service to Agriculture There is need to manage agriculture in the face of such challenges and to provide ‘weatherproofing’ for farm production. India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, is operating an Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (IAAS) at district level in India. Under the Agromet Advisory Services (AAS), the needs of farming communities were established through feedback from end-user groups. This showed that the primary need of the farmer is a location specific and quantified weather forecast, which led to the creation of the IAAS project.

7. Role  of Weather Information  in Farm Management • Cultivars  Selection • Choosing windows for Sowing/harvesting operations • Irrigation scheduling – optimal water use • Mitigation from adverse weather events such as frost, low temperature, heavy rainfall – at critical crop stages • Fertilizer application • Pesticide/fungicide spraying schedules • Feed, Health and Shelter Management for Livestock [Optimal temperature for dairy/ hatchery etc.]

8. AAS in India & United Nations Global Frameworkfor Climates Services (GFCS)

9. Objectives & Components of Agromet Service

10. Salient features of Weather Based Farm Advisory Service

11. Collaborating Agencies

12. Operational Agrometeorology TIER 1 Apex Policy Planning Body, Delhi Network of 130 Agromet Field Units TIER 2 National Agromet Service HQ Execution, Pune Network of AAS units in the country TIER 3 State Agromet Centres (28) Coordination/Monitoring TIER 4 Agromet Field Units Agroclimatic Zone Level (130) TIER 5 District Level Extension and Training Input Management as advisory~612 • The Agromet services provide a very special kind of inputs to the farmer as advisories that can make a tremendous difference to the agriculture production by taking in time actions against extreme weather events. • This has a potential to change the face of India in terms of food security and poverty alleviation.

13. Network of Agromet Advisory Services Two Ways of Communication System Network of AAS units in the country Network of 130 Agromet Field Units

14. Network of surface observatories

15. Agromet Observatories The Division of Agricultural Meteorology maintains and provides technical support to a wide range of Agromet Observatories from where different kinds of data on agromet parameters are generated. Agromet Observations from different observatories are recorded daily and the same was received and archived in Agrimet Division. Agromet observatories supply meteorological data to I. M. D., and are located mostly at the premises of the State Agriculture and irrigation Departments, Agricultural Institutes / Universities and Research farms.

17. Conducted Brainstorming Session onStandardisation and Integration of Automatic Weather Stations Under National Umbrella • Meeting was done to establish a denser network of automatic weather stations across the country under the joint venture of concerned organisations involved in installation, maintenance of AWS and those desire to use the data from AWS for different services in the country. • The objective of the meeting was to develop a national consortium by all the concerned organizations to integrate the existing AWS network and install new ones with the required sensors, maintenance, reception of quality controlled and uninterrupted data, data sharing mechanism etc.

18. District Level Five days Weather Forecast • Parameters: • Rainfall • Max and Min temperature • Total cloud cover • Surface Relative humidity • Surface Wind http://www.imd.gov.in Implemented from 1 June 2008 Rainfall: MME based Members: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA,NCEP and IMD GFS T584

19. Generation of district level weather forecast (DLWF) Currently these cover 640 districts of the country

20. Parameters Rainfall, Wind speed and direction, Maximum temperature, Relative humidity, Minimum temperature, Cloud cover Preparation of medium range forecast at district level NWP products State Met Centre (SAMC) Value addition Advisory Bulletin (AMFUs) Dissemination of Agromet Advisory through Multi-Channel Dissemination System Economic Benefit: Example: AMFU Sonitpur: Save potato crop (which was at maturity stage in the field) of value of Rs.3,00,000.00 (rupees three lakh) from the damage due in time forecast of heavy rainfall Assessment: At present only10 to 15 percent of the farmers are benefitting from the SMS services and about 24% farmers are aware about Agromet services (NCAER, 2011) Feedback Agromet Advisory

21. National Level Bulletin State Level Bulletin District Level Bulletin for Chennai

22. Operational communication linkage between Agromet Advisory Service Unit and end-users (farmers) for effective communication Forecast from IMD, New Delhi State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs State Agril. Dept. SMS on mobile Personal Contact Postal Contact Farmer KVK Television News Papers Radio

25. Query Farmer with mobile-phone Response Mobile phone Application for Parameters/Queries/ Symptoms update Wireless Sensor Networks Model Generated Disease risk Accurate Plant Disease forecast and minimize the spray of pesticides Internet Cloud Mobile service provider Parameter Update *2 *1 Alert/ Advice Expert Console mKRISHI Server mKRISHI Weather Station Farms

26. Disseminated Agromet Advisory to 3.4 million farmers through PPP mode (Reuter Market Light, Handygo,, IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL), Nokia and State Govt. of Maharashtra Current dissemination projects Proposed dissemination projects

27. Impacts of SMS Ways in which farmers have saved money as a result of AAS include the following:

28. Trainings Two weeks foreign training for personnel from Africa, Asia including North Korea would be organized from 28th January to 9th February 2013

29. Popularization Mechanism Hindi English Done Field visit at Sakurde, Boregaon and Baramati in Maharashtra By the end of January 2012 Farmer Awareness Programme at 79 AMFUs State level Consortium on AAS at 3 States involving KVK, ATMA, NGO and other Stake holders Brochures in 14 different languages prepared

30. Farmer Awareness Programme By getting involved in the observation of weather data, farmers can help to produce location-specific agromet advisories Farmers are provided with rain gauges by the programme

31. Development of Feedback Mechanism

32. Feedback from Service Providers • A number of IKSL and Reuters subscribers reported that they had successfully averted potential losses by reacting quickly to weather and disease information, while others have reported improved yields by adopting new seed varieties and cultivation practices, according to questionnaires and direct contact with farmers. • Those acting on cultivation information state that they gained by replacing traditional ‘commonsense’ practices with modern cultivation techniques. Weather information has helped to prevent seed and crop loss too, with farmers in Maharashtra using the forecasts to adjust irrigation levels.

33. Need Assessment Survey

34. The following table shows how the farmers are getting benifitted because of the advise given by expert in the agromet filed unit at Coimbatore, Tamilnadu state

35. Participated in “A Dialogue for Climate Services Users and Providers: Towards Implementation of the GFCS on 26-27 October, 2012 at Geneva Dr. L. S. Rahtore, DGM, New Delhi presented posters on 1. Delivering advisory services by mobile phone 2. Reaching farming communities in India through Farmer Awareness Programmes Case Study I: Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services on Mobile Phone through Public Private Partnership Programme. Case Study II: Reaching Farming community in India through Farmer Awareness Programmes. Accepted for publication of GFCS document to WMO, Geneva and the same was well appreciated by WMO.

36. Credential of AAS in India • The agromet advisory services provided by IMD through various channels have resulted in significant increases in farm productivity, resulting in increased availability of food and higher income generation. • At present only10 to 15 percent of the farmers are benefitting from the SMS services and about 24% farmers are aware about Agromet services. • The economic benefit of these services which has been estimated by NCAER at Rs.50,000 crores per year is extrapolated to rise to Rs.211,000 crores if the entire farming community in the country were to apply Agromet information to their agricultural activity. • Still no doubt there is a long way to go in not only increasing production but raising the income of farmers and reducing their losses and ultimately distress. It is challenging task for government, IMD as well as the other stake holders to achieve this.

37. Meeting of WMO and SAARC • Objective of the meeting • To share the ideas and understanding of agromet advisories services among the agrometeorologist from SAARC and non-SAARC countries in the RA-II which will ultimate boost the agriculturist activities and also benefit both the group of countries. • To effectively integrate the skills of operational, experimental theoretical aspects of agricultural meteorology and their possible development for the purpose of making the agriculture production system in the country in general more robust

38. Assistance to AFRICAN Countries in AAS Training course on “ operational Agrometeorology for countries in Africa and the Caribbean under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). It is proposed to set up “Medium Range Weather Forecasting Centre” in Africa by the Government of India under the bi-lateral cooperation. It is also proposed to support to start Agromet Advisory Services taking the successful stories of AAS in India..

39. Personalised Farmer-oriented AAS

41. GraminKrishiMausamSewa under XIIth FYP

42. Establishment of DAMU • Under the existing IAAS in the country AMFUs have already been established in different agroclimatic zones in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and Indian Institute of Technologies (IITs). As it will not be possible for these centres alone to address the objectives of the project at block level, there is a need to set up District Agromet Units (DAMUs) in the country in KVK. Six tier AAS Units DAMUs under KVK AMFU

43. Development and establishment of DAMUs • To receive and disseminate meteorological information and forecasts for the concerned Districts. • To serve as an effective link between IMD and the District authorities and the general public in matters concerning weather forecasts, early warnings and climatological information pertaining to the relevant District. • To act as a nodal center to coordinate internal functions of IMD in the District viz. to provide support to maintenance teams visiting the District for rain gauges, Automatic Weather stations and other meteorological equipment and to themselves carry out preventive maintenance. • Identify climatic risk for the specified locations based on past weather data. • Review the feedback from the stakeholders. DAMUs under KVK Functions of DAMUs Weather based agromet advisory on line to the farmers in block/ taluka/village level 510 District Agromet Units (DAMUs) at KVKs MoU has been made between IMD and ICAR for establishment of DAMUs

44. Obs. Error Model Observations BE Model Obs. Error Model Observations BE Model WRFDA WRFDA Analysis Model State Forecast Analysis Model State Forecast WRF -ARW 2-Nest (27,9 km) Run Global Model WRF-ARW 2-Nest (27,9 km) Run Global Model Nestdown Up to 3 km Nestdown Up to 3 km Forecasts 27 and 9 km ICs & BCs (3km) RMCs/MCs ICs & BCs (3km) RMCs/MCs WRF-ARW 1-Nest (3km) Run WRF -ARW 1-Nest (3km) Run Forecasts 3 km Generation of WRF-ARW Forecast with WRFDA Assimilation 00Z 12Z Time

45. WRF hourly Rainfall Forecast: Based on 00 UTC 15-08-2011 WRF at 9 km and 3 km Rapid Updates of model run: Three hourly cycle GIS and DWR based Nowcast and mesoscacleforecast system for major cities/airports of India Thrust areas: (a) Assimilation of new observations (b) Land Surface Process with Indian conditions, (c ) GIS applications, (d) Block Level Forecast

46. Extended Range Weather Forecast in AAS Objectives • Choice of site, e.g., cultivation of fadama (poorly drained) soils during years of drought and deep loamy soils during years of heavy rainfall; • Choice of farming systems, e.g., single or multi cropping or inter cropping; Timing of farm operations e.g., land preparation, tillage, planting, transplanting, thinning, weeding, irrigation, harvesting, application of insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and fertilizers. • Whether or not to adopt water conserving practices and which type to adopt; • how much water to store and use for irrigation; and • mode of irrigation (flooding or sprinkler); • Mode of application of the various inputs; • how much fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide, and fungicide to apply; • whether or not to use fertilizer, herbicides, or pesticides; • With the above objectives, the work of validation has been carried out for southwest monsoon of 2012 and it is observed that the forecast of rainfall given for Central and Northwest region of the country is matching well with the actual rainfall but failed for NE region. So in order to operationalize the extended range weather forecast in AAS following points should be taken in finer details. • Credibility is primarily determined by the level of skill. It is also a function the difference between what was promised by the forecasts and what was realized. At the best, forecasts are probabilistic. Considerable efforts, therefore, need to be put into how the forecasts are interpreted before they are transmitted. • Second, the forecasts must be presented in simple, easily understandable language. • Third, the department should also bear the responsibility to issue forecasts early enough to be useful in planning the following season’s operations. • Fourth, the forecasts must include information that could cause decisions based on tradition or climate-based timing of the farm operational schedule of activities to be altered. • Transport facility • How much credit to secure; • and • proportion of production to store or sell. Type of tillage, depth of planting, density of planting choice of crops and crop varieties.

47. MME1 Rainfall Anomaly (mm/day) Week 1 Ensemble forecast rainfall (mm/day) based on 12th July valid for 14th Jul – 20th Jul Ensemble forecast rainfall (mm/day) based on 12th July valid for 21st Jul – 27th Jul Forecasted Rainfall MME1 Rainfall Anomaly (mm/day) Week 3 Realized Rainfall for previous week Homogeneous Regions West Central India Northwest India Northeast India Hills Region Central Northeast India Peninsular India • Mostly all districts in the region received significant rain during last week. It is forecasted that some parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh receive insufficient (1-5 mm) rainfall in first week but improvement(10-20 mm) in monsoon in second week is predicted. In NIK due to moisture stress condition, as contingent plan, farmers are advised to undertake sowing of other crops. • Arrangement for irrigation is advised. As heavy rainfall (>30 mm) is forecasted in some parts of the region farmers are advised to arrange drainage to remove excess water from the fields immediately, wherever possible. Farmers are advised to postpone irrigation, intercultural operation and application of fertilizers and plant protection measures. Transport of goods for next few days is not advised. • Significant rainfall occurred in most of the districts of the States of the region during last week. As compared to the first week there will decrease in rainfall in the second week . • In some parts as heavy rainfall is forecasted farmers are advised to arrange for drainage. In other parts farmers are advised to continue transplanting of rice. Transportation should be taken care of in parts of heavy rainfall. In last week sufficient amount of rainfall is received in most of districts of the region and in next week 1-10 mm rainfall is expected over most parts of the region. But in second week there is forecast of insignificant rainfall. Farmers are advised for re-sowing with available irrigation facilities. • Significant rainfall occurred in most of the districts of the States of the region during last week. Some parts of the will receive less rainfall (1-5 mm) in first week but there will be improvement in rainfall (5-10 m) in the second week. • Farmers are advised to prepare for sowing of kharif crops with available irrigation facilities. • Significant rainfall occurred in Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa, E.UP and W.UP in last week and 10-30 mm rainfall is expected during next two weeks nursery sowing of rice, transplanting and also sowing of fodder crops and pulses can be continued in the region.

48. Pre-Pilot Block Level AgroMet Advisories Understanding variability in Agrometeorological parameters (time and space). Monitoring spatial and temporal resolution at block level. Generating suitable agromet products. Generate block level weather forecast. Develop mechanism for preparation &dissemination of advisories. Monitoring crop/soil/weather Monitoring for Agromet Advisory at Block Level.

49. Pre-Pilot 1: Watershed Organization Trust • IMD has started providing local specific medium range weather predictions for Sangamner and Akole clusters (WOTR’s operational area) of Ahmednagar district from April 2012. • The weather predictions are used by WOTR to prepare agro advisories. WOTR’s agriculture team prepares agro advisory according to the conditions of the major crops standing in the field. The advisory is in the form of wall paper. WOTR’s field agronomists share it with the farming community at 5-6 locations in every village. International Water Management Institution (IWMI) for establishing

50. Pre-pilot 2: CCAFS & IKSL Established climate smart villages in pilot districts of punjab and bihar in collaboration with Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and IKSL to evaluate its effectiveness. In its initial phase villages selected for the project in two states are: Bihar - Vaishali dist. 1. Raja Pakar, Block Raja Pakar 2. Bali Bathna, Block Mahua 3. LalPokhar, Block Hazipur Punjab – Sangrur dist. 1. Kheri, Block Sangrur 2. Gaggarpur, Block Sangrur 3. Chaneri, Block Bhawanigarh