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FACETs : Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats. Outlooks. Warnings. Seasonal. Watches. 30-60 Minutes. Hours. Time. Months. Days. Event. State. Space. Regional. Local. NSSL Contributions. Continuous, reliable Probabilistic Hazard

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  1. FACETs: Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Outlooks Warnings Seasonal Watches 30-60 Minutes Hours Time Months Days Event State Space Regional Local NSSL Contributions • Continuous, reliable Probabilistic Hazard • Information (PHI) from seasons to minutes Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM) and LansRothfusz Courtesy Dave Stenrud

  2. Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast Vision: Probabilistic convective-scale analysis and forecast system • Updated frequently and providing confidence information with focus on 0 to 1 h time frame

  3. Develop a small (~8 member) realtime, CONUS scale, convection-allowing ensemble – no data assimilation, focus on 12-36h (SPC Day1) forecast period NSSL/SPCRealtime CA-Ensemble Plans (pending HPC allocation) Close, daily collaboration with SPC to promote forecaster engagement and iterative progress on ensemble design, data mining, visualization, and post-processing (building on success of NSSL-WRF) Collaborate with EMC, GSD, and perhaps others to strategize about ensemble design, relevance to HRRRE from a technical-design and forecaster-readiness perspective Why NSSL and SPC? - Long history of contributions to ensemble prediction systems - HWT, strong R2O and O2R track record - Lessons learned from working with CAPS on CA- EPSs (2007-current)

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