Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh due to global warming using historic data

1. Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh due to global warming using historic data Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Bangladesh university of engineering and technology Email: akmsaifulislam@iwfm.buet.ac.bd

2. Introduction • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported in their fourth assessment report that global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C during the 100 years ending in 2005. • In this context, long term changes of near surface air temperature over Bangladesh have been studied using the available historic data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

3. Data • Maximum and minimum daily temperature data of last sixty years (1948-2007) collected from 34 stations of BMD located all over the Bangladesh have been used in this study. • Trend analysis has been conducted on monthly data for all the stations

4. Study Area

5. Trend Analysis Increase 0.63 0C on 100 years scale

6. Trends of Minimum Temp Increase 1.37 0C on 100 years scale

7. Trends of Temperature For 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD

8. Trends of Maximum Temp.

9. Trends of Minimum Temp.

10. Minimum Temperature • Maximum increase: 0.0404 at Bogra • Minimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail • Maximum Temperature • Maximum increase: 0.0581 at Shitakunda • Minimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur

11. Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)

12. Month-wise Trends

13. Trends of minimum temp. in January Increase 1.04 0C in 100 years

14. Trends of minimum temp. in February Increase 3.5 0C in 100 years

15. Average Temperature in January (1948-2007) Daily Minimum Daily Maximum

16. Effect of Temperature rise on Agriculture • In winter season (Nov-Feb), the main crops of Bangladesh are: • Boro (rice), Wheat, Potato, vegetables. • Increase of winter temperature can reduce the environmental suitability for wheat, potato and other temperate crops grown in Rabi season. • It might benefit Boro paddy and kharif crops.

17. Wheat growing areas and minimum temperature trend map in January Trends of minimum temp Wheat coverage area

18. Effect on Potato: Temperature derived from MODIS data during January, 2006 Temperature map in January Plantation starts on December Potato Field in Munshigonj

19. Presently working • We are presently working on the future prediction of temperature trends using PRECIS regional climate change model. • Climate Change Study Cell has been formed in our university with vision of “to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh”. http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

20. Conclusion • Both daily minimum and maximum temperature shows positive trends over Bangladesh. Increase of daily maximum temp. is 0.63 0C and daily minimum temp is 1.37 0C in 100 years. • Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has occurred in November at 2.7 0C and daily minimum temp. has occurred in February at 3.4 0C in 100 years. • Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has occurred as 5.810C at Shitakunda and daily minimum temp. has occurred as 5.04 0C at Bogra in 100 years. • Increase of winter temperature can reduce the environmental suitability for wheat, potato and other temperate crops grown in Rabi season.

21. Thank you