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ENSO-Related PDO and Its Changes due to Global Warming

UAW2008 (University Allied Workshop). ENSO-Related PDO and Its Changes due to Global Warming. MinHo Kwon 1 , Jong-Ghap Jhun 1 , Sang-Wook Yeh 2 , and Young-Kyu Park 2 1 Seoul National University, 2 Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute 1 July 2008, Tokyo, Japan. Introduction.

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ENSO-Related PDO and Its Changes due to Global Warming

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  1. UAW2008 (University Allied Workshop) ENSO-Related PDO and Its Changesdue to Global Warming MinHo Kwon1, Jong-Ghap Jhun1, Sang-Wook Yeh2,and Young-Kyu Park2 1Seoul National University,2Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute 1 July 2008, Tokyo, Japan

  2. Introduction Winter SST EOF1 EOF2 Deser and Blackmon (1995) ► Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) : Leading EOF mode of non- filtered North Pacific SST (Mantua et al., 1997)

  3. NP Decadal Variability Stochastic process : Hasselmann (1976), Barsugli and Battisti (1998) Dynamic ocean : Frankignoul et al. (1997), Saravanan and McWilliams (1998), Weng and Neelin (1999) Frankignoul et al. (2000), Schneider et al. (2002), Schneider and Cornuelle (2005)  westward Rossby wave propagation at Ocean, c.f. Jacobs et al. (1994) Mid-latitude coupled modes : Latif and Barnett (1994; 1996), Weng and Neelin (1999), Miller et al. (1994), Seager et al. (2001), Deser et al. (1999) Atmospheric bridge : Graham (1994), Graham et al. (1994), Newman (2003), An et al. (2007) Ocean transports : Gu and Philander (1997), McPhaden and Zhang (2002), Lysne et al. (1997) Connections with coupled process : Vimont et al. (2001; 2002)

  4. PDO and ENSO ► PDO (North Pacific SST variability) origin? ENSO, the Aleutian Low, the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension  multiple origins (Schneider and Cornuelle, 2005) ► ENSO-related PDO Reddened ENSO signal (e.g. Newman et al, 2003; An and Wang, 2005) ► Effects on continental climate of ENSO-PDO relationship Modified PNA pattern… (e.g. Pavia et al., 2006)

  5. Questions? ► ENSO changes due to global warming ENSO-related PDO changes? ►What about ‘non-ENSO’-related PDO changes due to global warming in current-state coupled GCMs (AR4-IPCC participating models). ►Relationship between ‘non-ENSO’- and ENSO-related PDO, its changes under global warming climate state?

  6. Persistence and Wintertime Coupling ► An and Wang (2005) ► Reemergence theory : SST persistence (Alexander et al., 2001) Winter anomalies recover via subsurface temperature in the next wintertime.

  7. Commitment period GHG AR4-IPCC Scenarios ►20C3M (1900-1999) DJF ►SRES A1B (2100-2199) DJF 12 IPCC coupled models The analysis is focused on the commitment period in DJF mean.

  8. SST Trends in IPCC models

  9. PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Detrended DJF ERSST(1894-2007) 30.1% 16.9% There are three separable EOF modes of SSTs in North Pacific in observation. 10.8%

  10. Changes in EOFs over NP EOF structure of North Pacific SST changes in time. The spatial pattern of PDO has changed.

  11. PDOs in IPCC models

  12. PDOs in IPCC models North’s criteria

  13. ENSO-related SST in IPCC models 12-model ensemble ENSO-related North Pacific SST variability has increased.

  14. Changes in ENDO-PDO relationship 20C3M A1B

  15. ENSO and PDO composite

  16. Western and Central PDOs ERSST (DJF) Two distinctive variability WPDO and CPDO are related to each other but their regression patterns have distinctive differences.

  17. Decoupled Indian Ocean ► SINTEX-F1Coupled GCM OPA 8.2-2 degree,31 levels ECHAM4–T106, 19 levels Luo et al. (2003; 2005) ES10 : control run (100yrs) ESdI : decoupled run (70yrs) (Indian Ocean) ES10CORR(WPDO, CPDO) = 0.49 ESdICORR(WPDO, CPDO) = 0.71 Indian Ocean SST could make complex variability of WPDOassociated with CPDO.

  18. Western and Central PDOs WPDO CPDO

  19. Conclusions ►The relationship betweenPDO and ENSO has a tendency to be enhanced in greenhouse gas-saturated climate state according to AR4-IPCC coupled models. ►‘Western PDO’ favors Indian SST anomalous condition. Indian SST anomaly could interfere the relationship between Western and Central PDOs. ►Indian Ocean decoupled run confirms the role of Indian SST on the Western PDO. ►The western and Central PDOs would be more separable under global warming climate state. ►EOF structure over North Pacific has changed around the 1960s in observation.

  20. PDO Nonlinearity Nonlinear tool : Hsieh et al. (1999)

  21. Western and Central PDOs

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