Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate

1. Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC” Stephan Bojinski Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

2. Outline • Background to GCOS and its activities • Road towards “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” • Requirements: Examples • Conclusion and Points for Discussion

3. GCOS Mission • To ensure that the data required to meet the needs of users for climate information are obtained and made available for: • Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and attribution; • Research, modelling and prediction of the climate system; • Assessing impacts, vulnerability & adaptation; • Application to sustainable economic development. • Global, long-term, high-quality, sustainable, reliable • 3 science panels (Atmosphere, Oceans, Terrestrial), Steering Committee, Secretariat • Sponsored by WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, ICSU • National GCOS coordinators and focal points, National support

4. GCOS Observational Strategy • Achieving an optimal balance of satellite and in-situ data • Ensuring data are stable enough to allow reliable detection of climate change – • 20 GCOS climate monitoring principles (10 basic + 10 especially for space-based observations) • Making full use of all available data to achieve a cost-effective global observing system for climate • Network concept: • Comprehensive networks of all relevant observations • Global Baseline networks • Reference networks • Research networks

5. Selected GCOS activities in the past 3 years • GCOS Adequacy Report (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies • GCOS Implementation Plan (2004): the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years • Both reports developed in response to and endorsed by the UNFCCC • Broad participation and ownership by the climate community, including WCRP, WCP • GCOS seen as the climate component of the GEOSS • Regional workshops • Regional implementation (e.g.,G8 follow-up, in conjunction with donors and development agencies in Africa)

6. GCOS Implementation Plan • Requirements in the ‘Second Adequacy Report’; • Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) • Integrated global analysis products • Existing global, regional and national plans; • Open review by nations, broad range of scientists and data users; • Indicators for measuring its implementation; • Implementation priorities, agents and resource requirements; • 131 Actions; estimated USD 631M additional annually recurring cost.

7. Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) • Atmospheric (16) • Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. • Oceanic (15) • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure • Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton • Terrestrial (13) • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), [Biomass], Fire disturbance, [soil moisture]

8. Variables Largely Dependent Upon Satellites • Atmospheric • Surface – Precipitation, Surface Wind speed and direction over oceans, • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget(including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (inc. MSU radiances), Water vapour, Cloud properties • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. • Oceanic • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, (Sea-surface salinity), Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour • Sub Surface – Altimetry for analysis/reanalysis • Terrestrial • (Ground water), (Lake levels), Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Albedo, Land cover, Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index , (Biomass), Fire disturbance, (soil moisture)

9. Road towards the ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP • Space agencies were requested by UNFCCC to respond to requirements in the GCOS IP by November 2006 • Space agencies asked GCOS, through CEOS, to provide more details for these requirements • Early draft in August 2005, based on space-based ECVs • January 2006 workshop with 25 participants, using • Template • Requirements in Ohring et al. (2005) • Requirements in WMO/CEOS database

10. Scope ofthe ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP (v1.1) • 8 Cross-cutting needs (e.g., inter-calibration, unique data) • 44 ECV-based needs • Needs for reanalysis (e.g., atmosphere-ocean coupling) • Detailed specifications, often in conjunction with in-situ data for cal/val • Recognises, but does not detail, limited time research needs for process studies • Some engagement of research needs in relation to developing and demonstrating improved and new capabilities for the ECV’s (“Emerging Variables”)

11. Where do priority needs stop? • Some in the science community have ambitions that “all” research missions and/or datasets thereof be sustained (“operational”) • GCOS focus is on a priority sustained component that deals withpractical monitoring on a global scale, and that should be feasible within a decade. • GCOS nevertheless also considers benefits from supplemental, less reliable measurements, or very accurate measurements made only at intervals.

12. Nomenclature • Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) ”a long-term data record, involving a series of instruments, with potentially changing measurement approaches, but with overlaps and calibrations sufficient to allow the generation of homogeneous products providing a measure of the intended variable that is accurate and stable enough for climate monitoring. FCDRs include the ancillary data used to calibrate them.” • Products (aka TCDRs) ”denotes geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations, in-situ data and models.”

13. Example 1 • Aerosol Product: Fields of aerosol optical depth, supported by single scattering albedo and phase function, and the sampling of vertical profiles of aerosol properties at regular time intervals • Benefits: Reduce uncertainty in climate forcing • Spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., total column AOD): 1 km horizontal, 1-day cycle, RMS accuracy 0.01, decadal stability 0.005 • Appropriate FCDR at selected VIS/NIR wavelengths, through: • Optimal configuration of LEO/GEO satellites • Continuity by AVHRR-3, VIIRS, MTG • Reprocessing of AVHRR since 1981; of full GOES dataset • Research with active instruments • Cal/val needs: NDAC, WMO GAW, NASA AERONET • Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets • Other applications of product: Air quality, NWP, cloud chemistry

14. Example 2 • Land Cover Change Product: Global georeferenced map of changes in land cover type • Benefits: Quantify areal changes land cover; provide link between global land cover maps and in-situ observations; support to national GHG inventory reporting to the UNFCCC • Spatial and temporal resolution: 10-30m horizontal, 1-year cycle (often shorter), RMS accuracy 5%, decadal stability: not defined • Appropriate FCDR of high-resolution, multispectral VIS/NIR imagery, e.g., Landsat ETM type • Adequacy: scattered regional 30-m resolution maps exist, but no institution provides global maps on a regular basis • Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets; build on existing rudimentary institutional arrangements; research to develop feasible operational solutions • Other applications of product: Support change detection / sustainable development in e.g., agriculture, forestry

15. Outlook / Conclusions • Output from 2002 NIST workshop (Ohring et al., 2005) very helpful • Ensure close collaboration between the ASIC3 workshop and GCOS effort (partly overlapping), for consistency of requirements • Nomenclature? • Relation of US National Roadmap to international Space Agencies’ (CEOS) response, in terms of • FCDRs? • Products? • Research needs?

16. Outlook / Conclusions • GCOS “Satellite Supplement” document: Open review of version 1.1 until mid-June (your feedback welcome!): http://www.wmo.int/web/gcos/gcoshome.html • Publication of GCOS document in September 2006 • Space agencies’ report to UNFCCC in November 2006

17. Thank you for your attention.