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They are all connected

They are all connected. Related issues. > 62% of ESS are degraded No fish by 2048 Lose ~€50Bn ESS => €14trn/yr by 2050 1/3 land degraded: impacts 1.2Bn people in 100 countries 1.8Bn people absolute water scarcity Invasive species >$1.4trn – 5% global GDP. Disasters.

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They are all connected

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  1. They are all connected

  2. Related issues • > 62% of ESS are degraded • No fish by 2048 • Lose ~€50Bn ESS => €14trn/yrby 2050 • 1/3 land degraded: impacts 1.2Bn people in 100 countries • 1.8Bn people absolute water scarcity • Invasive species >$1.4trn – 5% global GDP

  3. Disasters • weather related disasters doubled in 10 years • due to increased severe weather, floods, storms • increase mainly & medium-scale ‘forgotten’ disasters • geophysical disasters unchanged

  4. Water stress - impact • 700M in water scarcity • 900M no safe drinking water • many more in water stressed countries. The poor are most vulnerable • there is enough water for domestic, agriculture & industry. Many excluded by poverty, legal rights or public policies

  5. Water stress - projections • 50% of countries in water stress by 2025 • 75% of people by 2050 • increased flooding & drought • impacts on water supply, floods, health, agriculture, energy & aquatic ecosystems

  6. Water stress - responses • build institutional capacity • implementation of water laws and policies • transparent governance • cooperation among government agencies • involve stakeholders & communities • decentralised approaches • community-based adaptation

  7. Food insecurity – impact • 1Bn undernourished; the number one health risk • 275,000 people become chronically hungry every day • 29 countries alarming/ extremely alarming levels of hunger • 30% of people in Africa have chronic hunger & malnutrition • 25% are children • 60% are women • 75% poor agricultural livelihoods

  8. Food insecurity causes • not food shortage • global wheat prices rose 181% 2005-7 • global food prices increased by 83% • 60-80% developing country hh spending on food • development regressed 7 years • 100m more people in food insecurity • 30-50% further rises predicted • 75% attribution to biofuels • poor distribution, poverty, instability, poor governance, poor market acces, no voice • single crops, rain dependence, HIV, conflict, unemployment, under investment; poor social protection • northern agricultural subsidies, trade liberalisation, rising energy prices and increasing consumption

  9. Emergency or chronic? • 51 food crises between 2004 and 2008 • 23 countries in 2007 or 2008; 23 countries in 2000 and 2001 • Treated as unexpected disasters = humanitarian relief • Response too late to save assets & livelihoods • Emergencies cause less than 8% of hunger's victims, but temporary shocks have higher visibility • A child dies every 5 seconds

  10. Climate change impacts on food • undernourished people rising to 40-170m people • staple crops not viable in S Asia, S & sub-saharan Africa • >50% reduction yield across many African countries • global food price rise • loss of fisheries • Increased floods, droughts, storms, pests & diseases • $11-13bn adaptation by 2030

  11. Food security - responses • predictable cash or food transfers • pre-position resources • food aid & longer-term social protection • source food from local markets to avoid market distortions • improve early warning systems • improve governance, access, distribution • address biofuels

  12. Environmental degradation • virtually all Earth’s ecosystems significantly transformed • 24% of land converted to agriculture • 3-6 times water held behind dams than natural rivers • >35% of mangroves lost • >40% of coral reefs dead or dying • 70% of temperate forests and grasslands lost • 60% of ecosystem services unsustainably used: water, fisheries, air, climate, pests • hitting the poor hardest

  13. Climate change • IPCC: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average • sea level, increased storm and severe weather events. • Impacts on health, food, water, disasters, livelihoods, infrastructure, economies, conflict

  14. Linkages Examples of hazards

  15. Linkages Examples of environmental & geophysical impacts

  16. Linkages Examples of environmental & geophysical responses

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