“ Developing a model of crimes’ perceptions of people in the United Kingdom”

1. 4th Annual Information Studies Postgraduate Symposium Manchester Metropolitan University Date: 05th May, 2011 “Developing a model of crimes’ perceptions of people in the United Kingdom” Mohammad Shan-A-Khuda Leeds Metropolitan University

2. Outline of presentation • Purposes of project undertaken • Categories of research aspects • Gaps in previous research • Sources of data • Data analysis • A simple statistical model • A simple mathematical model

3. Purposes • To design appropriate Data collection and analysis techniques for peoples’ perception of crimes • Devise a model (mix of qualitative and quantitative) to establish the relationships among the factors of perception of crimes such as age, neighbourhood, crime categories in order to explore the gap between perception and reality; relationship between perception and fear of crimes

4. The 6Ps of research J. Oates, B. (2006) Researching Information Systems and Computing. London, SAGE Publications Ltd Participants Purpose Process Products Presentation Paradigm

5. Gaps in previous research • loss of information through the computational process • Unconvincing tackling of the issues of continuation of research on perception of crimes in the changing aspects of social circumstances Figure 1.1 A simple spray can image from Water’s model Figure 1.2 Comparison with real crime(green) with real perceptions (purple) Waters, T. (September, 2002) A Java Public Participation Gis Using a Spray Can Tool for an Investigation on the Perception of Crime in Leeds. Leeds, Department of Geograhpy. University of Leeds. Shan-a-Khuda, M. (September 2005) A Qualitative and Quantitative Model of Crime and Crime Perceptions. Leeds, School of Computing. University of Leeds.

6. Data collection and Analysis Nature of data • British Crime Survey, April, 2007-March, 2008 • Mix of qualitative and quantitative • Experience of crime within 12 months prior to interview • 42 Police Force Areas (PFA) of England and Wales • Adults 16 over (focus on Representative individual) in Private House Holds • Sample size: 46, 983 including both victim and non victim • Unaffected by the changes in levels of reporting to the police, and police recording practices

7. Steps in data analysis • Determining the contributing variables of perception of crimes • Evidencing the relationships among the variables through proper quantitative and qualitative analysis such as statistical modelling, data triangulation. • Devise a mathematical model • Confirming the results of mathematical model through a qualitative model

9. Graph showing relationship between neighbourhood cohesion and likelihood of burgled in the next year

10. Graph showing relationship between an individual’s highest qualification and likelihood of burgled in the next year

11. A Generalized Linear Model

13. Outline of proposed mathematical model Parameters estimation • Dependent and Independent variables There are two different aspects: i. “locality reference” and ii. “perceived crime rate” “locality reference” will be measured through two different independent variables: a. ‘home’: It covers the aspects of perception of crimes where people see the evidence of crime activities around the place where he or she lives in. b. ‘remote’: It covers peoples’ perceptions about outside of their home. This sort of perception is formed through the reading newspapers, chatting with other people, watching films,etc.

14. Outline of proposed mathematical model (Parameters continued) The second dependent variable “rate of perceived crime” will be measured through four different qualitative measurements: a. “perceived vehicle crime rate” b. “perceived antisocial behaviour occurrences” c. “perceived occurrences of burglary” d. “perceived occurrences of drug and gang crime” Some of the independent variables are the index asking the respondents what area code they are living in, how long they are living for, how they think the extent “people driving the above the speed limit”, “teenagers hanging around on the streets”, “people using or dealing drugs”, “Homes being broken into and property stolen” and “How many times they have felt fearful”. • Demographic variables The demographic variables are age, gender, ethnicity and area code.

15. Outline of proposed mathematical model i. x = X: {x1,x2,x3,x4} where X=demographic variable and x1= Age; x2 = Gender; x3 =Ethnicity and x4 = area code ...............................................( i ) ii.