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HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY

HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY. UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, 2010 5:00 PM. FINAL SUMMARY FOR THIS STORM. Hurricane Earl – 3:15 PM . HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION. Earl will pass about 75 miles southeast of Nantucket around or just after midnight tonight as a weakening but large Category 1 hurricane

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HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY

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  1. HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, 2010 5:00 PM FINAL SUMMARY FOR THIS STORM

  2. Hurricane Earl – 3:15 PM

  3. HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION • Earl will pass about 75 miles southeast of Nantucket around or just after midnight tonight • as a weakening but large Category 1 hurricane • Primary area of concern for wind remains focused on Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard - especially outer Cape Cod and Nantucket • Primary area of concern for localized flash flood potential is broader and covers eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island

  4. HURRICANE EARLWATCHES/WARNINGS • Hurricane Warning: • Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard • But hurricane force winds unlikely unless unexpected jog to the west • Tropical Storm Warning • New Haven CT to Woods Hole MA • North of Sagamore Beach to Hull • Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings for most of the coastal waters

  5. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTSMarine • High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents through Saturday • Along most ocean exposed beaches whether south or east facing • High surf and dangerous rip currents may be the greatest risk to life • Seas over open coastal waters • 10 to 20 feet to left of track • 20 to 30+ feet very near track • 30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

  6. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSWind • Tropical Storm Force winds Cape Cod and the Islands with hurricane force gusts possible over the outer Cape and Nantucket • Tropical Storm force gusts likely in rest of Tropical Storm Warning area along the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline • Gusts strong enough for scattered tree damage and scattered power outages along and southeast of a Boston to Providence corridor • Strongest gusts associated with some of the heavier rain bands

  7. WIND SPEEDS • Outer Cape and Nantucket • NE, then N, and NW 40 to 50 mph with gusts 70 to 80 mph possible • Rest of Cape and Martha’s Vineyard • NE, then N and NW 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph possible • Rhode Island coast (incl. Block Island) and Plymouth County coast in Massachusetts • NE to N to NW winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph possible • Rest of immediate Massachusetts coast and along Boston to Providence corridor: • NE to N to NW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible

  8. WIND TIMELINE • Gusts to near Tropical Storm force arrive south coast and islands by around 5 PM • Strongest winds for a 3 to 6 hour duration between 8 PM and 3 AM for most locations • Signal suggesting peak gusts could be from N or NW 11 PM to 3 AM • Winds diminishing 4 to 8 AM • W to NW winds gusting to 30 knots Saturday late morning and afternoon

  9. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSHeavy Rain/Flooding • 2 to 4 inches of rain with narrow band or two of higher amounts eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island • Flash Flood Watch for all of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island • For localized urban poor drainage or small stream flooding • 1 to 3 inches possible for eastern Connecticut and portions of Worcester County • Heaviest rain to around or just after midnight • Tropical downpours can dump over an inch within an hour • River flooding not so much a concern as street flooding and flooding of small streams with urban drainages

  10. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSMinor Storm Surge Flooding at Worst • Storm surge of 1 to 2 feet will cause minor flooding along vulnerable portions of the Nantucket, Chatham and Martha’s Vineyard shoreline during this evening’s high tide • Beaches reported under water in Madaket area of Nantucket at 405 PM per amateur radio – probably a function of very large swell from the south • Splash over occurred around the time of the late afternoon high tide ocean exposed Newport south coast due to large breakers • 2 to 4 foot storm surge 2 to 4 AM at Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors after Earl passes Friday night but during low tide cycle • Little or no impact expected

  11. POST HURRICANE EARL • Mostly Sunny and gusty Saturday • NW wind gusts 30 to 35 mph • Swells, surf, and rip currents subsiding during Saturday but still dangerous • May have some lingering rip current concerns on Sunday…especially east facing coasts

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