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HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY

HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY. UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, 2010 11:00 AM. Hurricane Earl – 6:15 AM. HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION. Earl will likely pass 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket around midnight tonight Probably as a large but weakening Category 1 hurricane

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HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY

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  1. HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, 2010 11:00 AM

  2. Hurricane Earl – 6:15 AM

  3. HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION • Earl will likely pass 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket around midnight tonight • Probably as a large but weakening Category 1 hurricane • Preparations for Earl should be complete by early this afternoon for Cape Cod, islands, and immediate south coast • Primary area of concern continues to be Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard for wind • Localized flash flood potential still exists for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts

  4. HURRICANE EARLWATCHES/WARNINGS • Hurricane Warning: • Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard • Tropical Storm Warning • New Haven CT to Woods Hole MA • North of Sagamore Beach to Hull • Tropical Storm Warning over land north of Hull canceled but remains over Mass Bay, Stellwagen Bank, and coastal waters about Cape Ann

  5. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTSMarine • High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents through Saturday • Along most ocean exposed beaches whether south or east facing • High surf and dangerous rip currents may be the greatest risk to life • Seas over open coastal waters • 10 to 20 feet to left of track • 20 to 30+ feet very near track • 30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

  6. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSWind • Tropical Storm Force winds Cape Cod and the Islands with hurricane force gusts possible – especially over the outer Cape and Nantucket • Tropical Storm force gusts likely rest of Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline • Possibility of a short duration of sustained tropical storm force winds immediate Rhode Island south coast , including Block Island, Buzzards Bay coast, and Plymouth County coast • Gusts strong enough for scattered tree damage and scattered power outages along and southeast of a Boston to Providence corridor

  7. WIND SPEEDS • Outer Cape and Nantucket • NE, then N, and NW 40 to 50 mph with gusts 70 to 80 mph possible • Rest of Cape and Martha’s Vineyard • NE, then N and NW 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph possible • Rhode Island coast (incl. Block Island) and Plymouth County coast in Massachusetts • NE to N to NW winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph • Rest of immediate Massachusetts coast and along Boston to Providence corridor: • NE to N to NW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible

  8. WIND TIMELINE • Gusts to near Tropical Storm force arrive south coast and islands around 3 to 5 PM • Strongest winds for a 3 to 6 hour duration between 8 PM and 3 AM for most locations • Signal suggesting peak gusts could be from N or NW 11 PM to 3 AM • Winds diminishing 4 to 8 AM • W to NW winds gusting to 30 knots Saturday late morning and afternoon

  9. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSHeavy Rain/Flooding • This remains one of the most challenging aspects of this storm • 2 to 4 inches of rain with narrow band or two of higher amounts eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island • Flash Flood Watch now across southeast Massachusetts may be expanded to rest of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island • For localized urban poor drainage or small stream flooding • 1 to 3 inches possible for eastern Connecticut and portions of Worcester County • Heaviest rain 4 PM to midnight

  10. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSMinor Storm Surge Flooding at Worst • Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet may cause minor flooding along vulnerable portions of the Nantucket, Chatham and Martha’s Vineyard shoreline during this evening’s high tide • Surge of around 2 feet may cause spotty minor coastal flooding Narragansett Bay – not a serious concern • Rain runoff will come after high tide along Narragansett Bay • Splash over around the time of the late afternoon high tide ocean exposed RI south coast due to large breakers • Up to 2 feet of surge rest of Massachusetts east coast during the evening high tide with splash over possible • Minor storm surge flooding possible for Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors after Earl passes Friday night • 3 to 6 foot surge possible 2 to 4 AM but between high tides

  11. POST HURRICANE EARL • Mostly Sunny and gusty Saturday • NW wind gusts 30 to 35 mph • Swells, surf, and rip currents subsiding during Saturday but still dangerous • May have some lingering rip current concerns on Sunday…especially east facing coasts

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