Author : Lidya ( 264060 77 ) Under the Guidance of: Yulia , M. Kom . Tanti Octavia, M. Eng.

1. Designing and Making forecast Application to determine rate of Purchase In "X" construction store with ARIMA Method Author : Lidya( 26406077 ) Under the Guidance of: Yulia, M. Kom. Tanti Octavia, M. Eng.

2. Background • Out of stock for particular item.

3. Main Goal • Make application sales forecasting with ARIMA method. • Help owner to determine the purchase item quantity.

4. Problem Statement • How to make a system with ARIMA method. • How to determine purchase items from forecast result

5. ARIMA • ARIMA models are, in theory, the most general class of models for forecasting a time series which can be stationarized by differencing. • Step forecasting with ARIMA • Identification temporary model using past data to obtain the ARIMA model. • Estimation parameters of ARIMA models using past data. • Diagnostic check to examine feasibility of the model. • Implementation.

6. DFD (Contex Diagram)

7. DFD (Level 0)

8. Flowchart Forecasting

9. Flowchart Forecasting(cont.)

10. ACF

11. PACF

12. AR

13. MA

14. ARMA

15. ARIMA

16. ERD ( Conceptual Data Model )

17. ERD ( Physical Data Model )

18. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT • Program Validation Data used to test program validation is:

19. Determine Model • ACF Interval = ±( 1,96 * (1/ (6)1/2)) = ±0,799

20. Determine Model • PACF P =1, d =0, q =1

21. Forecasting • AR Xt = 1 + εt +0,833* Xt-1 MSE = 1,167

22. Forecasting • MA Xt = 2,423+ εt - -0,961* εt-1 MSE = 0,667

23. Forecasting • ARMA Xt = 1 + εt +0,833* Xt-1 -0,961* εt-1 MSE = 8,33

24. Diagnostic Check Q = 0,658 χ2(0.5,4) = 9.48773 Q< χ2(0.5,4)

25. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT Result with manual calculation MA Result with Program

26. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT • Experimental for kind of Data This Experimental use 2 type data. First is roller brush and secondary is paint brush. Data of roller brush. Data of paint brush.

27. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT Result from Data of roller brush.

28. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT Result from Data of paint brush.

29. Conclusion Applications tested on users in design, completeness of features, ease of use of the application, the accuracy of forecasting, and the overall program. • Aspects of the application design, 50% user answered fairly, 33.3% said both, and 16.7% said less.  • Aspects of the completeness of features, 50% user said good, and 50% said enough.  • Aspect easy to use program, users answered 50% moderate, and 50% say unfavorable.  • Aspect of program correctness, the user answered 73.3% moderate and 16.7% unfavorable. • Overall assessment of the program, users answered 73.3% moderate, and 16.7% is good.

30. Sugestion • Need a development with Hybrid method

31. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

32. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT • Experimental for Data • This experimental using data of Metrolite 3lt

33. EXPERIMENTAL RESULT Result forecasting in random period