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Dick Swanson CTO, SunPower Corporation

Photovoltaics: A Forward View. Dick Swanson CTO, SunPower Corporation. April 4, 2008. Navigant Forecast History. Navigant Forecast History. 2007 Final. PV Cost Trajectory. PV Growth will be unconstrained in very large markets beginning in 2015. Source: US DOE Solar America Initiative.

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Dick Swanson CTO, SunPower Corporation

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  1. Photovoltaics: A Forward View Dick SwansonCTO, SunPower Corporation April 4, 2008

  2. Navigant Forecast History

  3. Navigant Forecast History 2007 Final

  4. PV Cost Trajectory PV Growth will be unconstrained in very large markets beginning in 2015 Source: US DOE Solar America Initiative

  5. PV Generation vs. U.S. Electrical Demand to 2050 20%/yr 15%/yr 10%/yr TWH/yr Scenario: 15 GGW in 2015 PV needed for 450ppm RE Mix Sources: Mckenzie Report for U.S. Electrical Demand; SunPower calculations for PV Energy Growth Assumptions: PV Manufacturing Growth declines steadily from the projected 2012 50%/yr rate to 20%/yr, 15%/yr, and 10%/yr in the Manufacturing Led, Moderate and Low Growth Cases, respectively ‘PV Manufacturing Led ‘ assumes unconstrained demand, and is considered achievable by industry manufacturing experts

  6. PV Generation vs. U.S. Electrical Demand to 2050 15%/yr 20%/yr 10%/yr TWH/yr Scenario: 24 GGW in 2015 Assumptions: Same as prior slide, but with growth to 24 GW (vs. 15 GW) in 1015, and growth rates declining thereafter. The 24 GW figures derives from the Navigant ‘SAI and Focused Policy Scenario’ for rooftop PV growth to 17 GW, to which is added 50% volume for the central PV market.

  7. 2050 View 450ppm / 80% CO2 Reductions by 2050 To achieve 80% CO2 reductions by 2050, PV growth needs to be far less than what is possible, given the rise of other renewables and energy efficiency 2040: What is Possible – 5000 TWH/yr PV (Moderate Growth case) What is Needed – 2000 TWH/yr PV DPV: Distributed PV CPV: Central PV PV Moderate Growth Case TWH/yr 2000 TWH/yr 5000 TWH/yr Sources: McKenzie Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP

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