Climate Risk Management and Adaptation UNDP Strategy Adaptation Funds and Portfolio Three Funds

1. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation • UNDP Strategy • Adaptation Funds and Portfolio • Three Funds • Additional costs • Additional Measures • UNDP-GEF Resources for Project Development

2. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation The “greenhouse” effect of the climate system.

3. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration has contributed to global warming observed over the past 50 years. (Source: IPCC, 2001; Jones, 2000)

4. Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared to the year 1750 (parts-per-million CO2-equivalents). Source: IPCC, 2001a

5. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Enhanced “greenhouse” effect has led to a wide range of changes in global climate and sea level.

6. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Changes in precipitation patterns are also discernible across the globe. (source: IPCC, 2001)

7. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation In addition to changes in average climate conditions, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been growing.

8. Observed warming and reasons for concern (adapted from IPCC TAR WGI) I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation

9. Future warming – carbon intensive world (adapted from IPCC TAR WGI) I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation CO2 concentration does NOT stabilize.

10. I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation There are critical thresholds over which system changes become irreversible (“dangerous”). Hence, mitigation is necessary to avoid such thresholds being exceeded.

11. Future warming – decarbonised world (adapted from IPCC TAR WGI) I. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation CO2 concentration stabilizes at 550ppm.

12. Climate change in Europe • Adapted from “Climate change impacts in Europe: Today and in the future” • European Environment Agency

13. Atmosphere and climate • Global average temperature has increased by about 0.7°C European average temperature by 0.95 C° in last 100 years • Temperatures will further increase by 1.4 – 5.8 C° globally and 2-6.3 C° in Europe until the year 2100 • Central and northern Europe have received more rain for the period 1900-2000 (10-40% wetter). Southern and south-eastern Europe have become drier (up to 20% drier) • Extreme weather events - droughts, heatwaves and floods- have increased; cold extremes (frost days) have decreased • Changes are estimated to continue in the future.

14. Temperature & precipitation extremes • During the past 100 years the number of cold and frost days has decreased in most parts of Europe. Number of warm days and heat waves has increased. • Cold winters are projected to disappear almost entirely by 2080 and hot summers are projected to become much more frequent. • Changes in the frequency of precipitation extremes are very different across Europe. The frequency of “very wet” days significantly decreased in the recent decades in many places in southern-Europe, but increased in mid and northern-Europe. • It is likely that by 2080 droughts as well as intense precipitation events will become more frequent.

15. Temperature extremes Change in frequency of hot days between 1976 and 1999. Unit: No. of days in a year changed over a decade Source: Klein Tank et al, 2002

16. Precipitation events

17. Glaciers, snow and ice • One of the most identifiable visual CC impacts in Europe can be observed in the cryosphere through the retreat of glaciers, snow cover and Arctic sea ice • Eight out of nine glacier regions show a significant retreat. Up to 50% of the glacier surfaces in the Alps have been lost since 1850, a trend that is still increasing. • Increases of Norwegian glaciers can be attributed to climate change through increasing winter snowfall. • Extent and duration of snow cover all over Europe has decreased since 1960. • In the Arctic regions of Europe sea ice has also been in decline.

18. Marine systems • The marine system is mainly affected by an increase in sea surface temperature • Especially in isolated basins like the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. • An increase in phytoplankton biomass, a northward movement of indigenous zooplankton species up to 1000 km within the last decades • An increasing presence and number of sub-tropical species in the North Sea. • Sea level rise around Europe increased in the last century between 0.8 mm/yr and 3.0 mm/year. • Projected rate of sea level rise between 1990 and 2100 is 2.2 to 4.4 times higher and is projected to continue for centuries

19. Human Health • About 20,000 excess deaths attributable to heat particularly in Western and Southern Europe in the summer of 2003. • Heat waves are projected to become more frequent and more intense during the 21st Century and the number of excess deaths • Tick born encephalitis cases between 1980 and 1995 have increased in the Baltic region and Central Europe. Ticks can transmit a variety of diseases, such as tick borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme disease (borriliosis). • Not clear how many of the 85,000 cases of Lyme borriliosis reported annually in Europe, are due to the temperature increase over the past decades

20. Economic losses of weather events

21. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation • UNDP Strategy • Adaptation Funds and Portfolio • Three Funds • Additional costs • Additional Measures • UNDP-GEF Resources for Project Development

22. II. UNDP Strategy Global warming is already altering the world’s climate!

23. II. UNDP Strategy Safeguarding MDGs “Changing existing policies and practices and adopting new policies and practices so as to secure MDGs in the face of climate change and its associated impacts” (UNDP 2006) • “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effect, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” (IPCC 2001) • “Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change.” (UNFCCC website, 2006)

24. II. UNDP Strategy Climate Risks and MDGs

25. II. UNDP Strategy Emerging Priorities for Adaptation • SP1. Agriculture and Food Security • Food security and food production maintained or enhanced • SP2. Water Resources and Quality • Water availability and supply maintained • SP3. Public Health • Public health maintained or advance • SP4. Climate Change-Related Disaster Risk Management • Exposure and vulnerability to climate change-driven risks and • hazards reduced • SP5. Coastal Development • Exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure & • economic activity reduced

26. II. UNDP Strategy UNDP Principles • Safeguard achievement of MDGs by developing adaptive capacity through an integrated package of services • Integrate climate risks into development policies, national investment decisions, and into CCA/UNDAF • Build on existing UNDP programmes, such as UNDP/GEF-supported Climate Change National Communications and National Adaptation Programmes of Action • Build on disaster risk-management activities and extensive UNDP experience in this area • Build partnerships with organisations to ensure appropriate expertise reaches countries in line with UNDP’s poverty role in the UN System

27. II. UNDP Strategy UNDP’s Three-Pronged Approach • Raise awareness and incorporate climate risks into UN, development • planning, programmes and projects through CCA/UNDAF • Mainstream climate risks into national development strategies and • investment decisions through National Communications and • other Climate Change strategic plans • Pilot adaptation in line with priorities emerging from national • adaptation frameworks

28. II. UNDP Strategy Mainstreaming in UNDP • Common Country Assessment (CCA) • Key development challenges • United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) • UNDAF outcomes • Country programme outcomes • Country programme outputs • Key partners • Baselines, targets, and sources of verification • Country Programme Document (CPD) • Allocates TRAC funding • Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP), Annual Work Plan (AWP)Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting

29. II. UNDP Strategy Mainstreaming in UNDP • Strategic Environmental Assessment is an approach to • decision-making for integrating environmental considerations into • policies, plans and programmes: • Can be used for integrating climate risks into national planning and UN/UNDP programming • Helps move from ad-hoc and reactive to anticipatory and deliberative approach • Convergence of SEA and APF for implementing adaptation policies • and measures within sectoral policies and programmes

30. II. UNDP Strategy Concept Development & Screening Website

31. 2. APF and Project Development Guidance Strategies and Projects Identified 3. Adaptation Funds Adapted Policies and Measures Implemented II. UNDP Strategy Leveraging SNCs, and the APF 1. Enabling Activities: NCs V&A Priorities and Timescales Identified

32. II. UNDP Strategy Adaptation Policy Frameworks (APF) APF and Project Development Guidance • 5 steps in adaptation • process • Technical papers • Step-by-step • project design • guidance 1. Scope Strategies, Policies, Measures 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterise future climate-related risks 4. Develop and Implement Strategies/Policies/Measures 5. Continue adaptation process

33. II. UNDP Strategy • UNDP-GEF Adaptation Portfolio Full- and medium-size projects underway in 43 countries

34. II. UNDP Strategy UNDP’s Mission • Doing Development Differently! • Integrating climate change risks into national sustainable development • In other words… • Assist developing countries to implement innovative adaptation policies and programmes to better cope with climate change

35. Climate Risk Management and Adaptation • UNDP Strategy • Adaptation Funds and Portfolio • Three Funds • Additional costs • Additional Measures • UNDP-GEF Resources for Project Development

36. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Three Adaptation Funds Short Long

37. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Funds: Timescales & Responses • LDCF: Short term (inter-annual) Increase ability of systems to cope with more frequent, severe extremes, less predictable rainfall, etc. LDCs only. Driven by development priorities. Short • SCCF: Long term (multi-decadal) Modify systems or develop new ones to be viable under changed conditions, e.g. reduced rainfall, lower groundwater, higher mean temperatures, etc. Prepare for potential significant changes, e.g. advance retreat from areas likely to become unviable, alternative economic sectors, etc. Long SPA: Global Environmental Benefits Natural resource management to ensure global benefits for biodiversity, land degradation, international waters, etc.

38. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF): Guidelines • Objective: To implement long-term adaptation measures that increase the resilience of national development sectors to the impacts of climate change. Projects must focus on long-term planned response strategies, policies, and measures, rather than short-term (reactive) activities. • Scope: Focus on projects in vulnerable regions and sectors. • SCCF offers an opportunity to link climate change adaptation with socio-economic sectors, including: Water resources management; Land management; Agriculture; Health; Infrastructure development. • Linkages with fragile ecosystems, integrated coastal zone management and disaster preparedness are also encouraged.

39. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF): Guidelines (cont’d) • Activity examples: improved monitoring of diseases, early warning systems/responses, disaster planning, preparedness for droughts/flood in areas prone to extreme climate events. • Projects must include elements of at least two these three activities: integration, implementation and/or capacity building). • Outcomes: reduce climatic vulnerability across a variety of development sectors. • Outputs examples: resilience of development sectors enhanced, over and above the ‘without-adaptation’ baseline; Strategies, polices and measures have been implemented to ‘climate proof’ sectors; Adaptive capacity of communities to climate change has been created and/or enhanced.

40. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF): Guidelines (cont’d) • Innovation: projects should generate lessons that are applicable in a wider context and can be used to develop good practices for incorporating adaptation to climate change into development planning and project implementation. Link to UNDP-GEF ALM • Portfolio mix: Thematic and geographical diversity in the portfolio is highly desirable. • Blended projects: SCCF cannot be co-mingled in ‘blended’ projects with funding from any focal area under the GEF Trust Fund. • SCCF is open for business – hoping for WP in December – but chances of over programming are great. • Not part of RAF

41. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Additional Cost Reasoning SCCF • The difference = additional cost eligible for SCCF funding $3M $1M • Alternative scenario = • Development that takes climate change into account $2M • Baseline scenario = • “Business as usual” development, climate change not taken into account in agriculture, water, health, disaster, etc.

42. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Co-financing Ratios for SCCF

43. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA): Guidelines • Objective: To increase the resilience and adaptive capacity of those ecosystems and communities vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Projects must focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change impacts as their primary objective. • Scope: Focus on particularly vulnerable regions, sectors, geographic areas, ecosystems and communities. Selection will be based on information contained in NCs and other studies. • The SPA supports pilot and demonstration projects that address local adaptation needs and generate global environmental benefits in all GEF focal areas. • Projects that generate both local (development-focused) and global benefits will be eligible under the SPA, if their benefits are primarily global in nature.

44. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA): Guidelines (cont’d) • Activity examples: Capacity building for managing and ensuring the sustainable use of natural resources under climate change. • Outcomes: Enhanced delivery of global environmental benefits across GEF climate change portfolio. • Output examples: Adaptive capacity of communities has been created and/or enhanced; Resilience of ecosystems has been enhanced, over and above the ‘without-adaptation’ baseline of the project; Global benefits can be demonstrated in one or more of the GEF focal areas. • Innovation: SPA projects should generate lessons that are applicable in a wide context and can be used to develop good practices for integrating adaptation into GEF focal areas.

45. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA): Guidelines (cont’d) • Cloning of projects is not recommended. New projects with similar objectives and outcomes to projects already funded, or in the pipeline, must have an additional innovative component in their project design. • Portfolio mix: Diversity in the portfolio, as well as thematic clustering of projects, is highly desirable. • Blended projects: Multifocal area initiatives can be developed as ‘blended’ projects with funding from differing GEF focal area allocations. • Cost sharing: The recommended co-financing ratios for SPA- projects is 50/50. • Original SPA commitment still contains $23m for adaptation projects in areas with global environmental benefits for allocating during GEF-4.

46. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Incremental Cost Reasoning SPA Alternative B = Activities to ensure GEBs by mitigating future climate risk or reducing vulnerability $3.75M $1M $1.75M Alternative A = Activities to produce global environmental benefits in LD, Biodiversity, IW, etc. $2.75M $0.75M $2M • The difference = doubleincrementalcost eligible for GEF funding • Baseline scenario = “Business as usual” development, only activities in baseline development planning

47. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio

48. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Funding for Adaptation,Estimates for 2006-2012 400 Projected (2006-2012) 350 Available to Date Allocated 300 250 USD millions 200 150 100 50 SPA SCCF LDCF Adaptation Fund

49. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio Adaptation Fund • Source: Share of CDM project proceeds, 2% of certified emission reductions (CERs) • Eligibility:Under negotiation, but currently identical to SCCF • Management: Under discussion, likely GEF • Operational: 2007 - at earliest • Amount: Estimated $300 - 600 million through 2012

50. III. Adaptation Funds & Portfolio NO Does the project deliver ecosystem benefits in one of the GEF focal areas? NO Is the concept the first priority project listed in the NAPA? * Does the concept support adaptation through strategies, policies and measures? NO YES YES Ineligible for adaptation funding YES Pursue SPA Pursue LDCF Pursue SCCF * NAPA priorities may also be submitted to SCCF