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National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing voters September 2007

P e t e r D. HART. RESEARCH. A. S. S. O. C. I. A. T. E. S. Winning The Battle Of Budget: Framing The Best Case In The Upcoming Appropriations Fights. Research conducted for Americans United, AFSCME, and USAction.

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National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing voters September 2007

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  1. P e t e r D HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Winning The Battle Of Budget: Framing The Best Case In The Upcoming Appropriations Fights Research conducted for Americans United, AFSCME, and USAction National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing votersSeptember 2007

  2. Voters have high disapproval of all the players. Job Approval Ratings Stronglydisapprove 46% Stronglydisapprove 29% Stronglydisapprove 32% George W. Bush Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress

  3. In comparative terms, Democrats still have the high ground. In next year’s Congressional election, are you more likely to vote for the Democrat or the Republican? Generally speaking, in whom do you have more confidence to deal with the major issues facing the country today? Democratsin Congress Repub-lican PresidentBush Demo-crat +9 +18 Not sure Undecided

  4. Focusing on needs at home, not Iraq, is voters’ top budget priority. Mean rating on seven-point scale: 1 = Most important goal, 7 = least important Shift our priorities to focus more on the needs of Americans here at home, instead of pouring billions of dollars into Iraq. (14 of 33 participants ranked this first) Increase investments in jobs, healthcare and education to ensure a better future for our country and the next generation of Americans. (7 ranked this first) Making sure that we put the needs of middle-class Americans ahead of tax breaks for the wealthy. (5 ranked this first) Avoid tax increases that would hurt our economy and put a bigger tax burden on average Americans. (4 ranked this first) Putting our country on a sound fiscal footing and moving back toward a balanced budget. (1 ranked this first) Reduce wasteful pork barrel spending, and use taxpayer dollars on programs that really work (4 ranked this first) Modernize our bridges, highways, and other infrastructure to avoid more collapses and failures of basic services that Americans rely on. (0) 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.4 4.9

  5. In veto fights over appropriations, voters initially are divided. When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations bills for these reasons, who are you more inclined to side with on this issue? “President Bush has said he will veto several of the appropriations bills for federal spending being considered by the Democratic Congress. President Bush says the Democrats' appropriation bills contain too many wasteful pork-barrel spending projects, and go too far in busting the budget and increasing government spending. Democrats say their bills make responsible and necessary invest-ments in important priorities that the Bush administration has short-changed.” 46% 40% Much more 26% Much more 25% Side with theDemocrats Side with Pres. Bush

  6. Democrats’ advantage is bigger when focus is on GOP unwillingness to fund priorities at home after spending so much on Iraq. In each pair of statements, which concerns you more? Among Persuadable Voters Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush/GOPswill oppose needed funding for prioritiesafter spending so much in Iraq Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush/GOPswill oppose needed funding for priorities/keep tax breaks for wealthy Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush will stand in way of funding priorities/stubborn strategy just to get his own way

  7. Iraq contrast is strongest frame for Democratic message. % very/fairly convincing argument for Democrats’ approach on budget/spending Persuad-ables 63% 54% 53% 53% Over the past five years, the Bush administration has spent nearly half a trillion dollars in Iraq, while saying that we cannot afford to meet our priorities here at home. In fact, with just one week of Iraq war funding, about two billion dollars, we could have provided 800,000 children with health care coverage for one year. The Democrats understand that it is time we put first things first and invest in health care, education, and infrastructure right here in America. (43% very convincing) Democrats’ budget priorities restore American Dream: affordable college, accessible health care, jobs, clean renewable energy (31% very convincing) Meeting important needs in a fiscally responsible way is just setting priorities: Bush/GOP priority is tax breaks for wealthy. Democrats understand importance of helping middle class/working families: schools, health care, environment, infrastructure (34% very convincing)

  8. Iraq contrast is strongest frame for Democratic message. % very/fairly convincing argument for Democrats’ approach on budget/spending Persuad-ables 53% 47% 45%36% Bridges/infrastructure is collapsing, other critical priorities have been neglected. Democrats understand successful future means investing now in education, disease research, clean energy, modern transportation system (33% very convincing) For six years, Bush/GOP neglected important needs of country, America has paid the price. Democrats are doing what is necessary to make sure we take care of important priorities like education, health care (26% very convincing) Democrats taking fiscally responsible approach, not adding a lot of new spending, 75% of difference with Bush is restoring ill-advised cuts Bush tried to make. Democrats proposal part of plan to move toward balanced budget (23% very convincing) Americans voted last year for change/new direction and Democrats are working to deliver, seeking bipartisan support for spending proposals. But Bush is stubbornly standing in the way of change and following a deliberate policy of obstruction (17% very convincing)

  9. Investing in the future and putting middle class first are the best statements of Democratic goals. % strongly agree/very important goal(9-10 on 10-point scale) 53% 52% 48% Making sure that we put the real needs of middle-class Americans and average working families ahead of tax breaks for the wealthy that just help the rich get richer Making the investments we need to ensure a better future for our country and for the next generation of Americans, including investments in education, economic development, renewable energy, and a healthy environment Shifting our priorities to focus more on the needs of Americans here at home, instead of pouring billions upon billions of dollars into Iraq Modernizing infrastructure and fiscal responsibility are seen as less important goals.

  10. Best rated slogans focus on investing in future, right priorities, taking care of things at home. Focus group participants ranking each among top four choices: Of 33 total participants Invest in America’s future It’s time to take care of things at home It’s time to get our priorities straight It’s time to put America first Put America’s priorities first Stop shortchangingAmerica for Iraq Invest inAmerica’s priorities Stop shortchangingAmerica First things first

  11. Voters side with Democrats over Bush on a wide range of specifics. All voters $3.7 B more than Bush on veterans’ health care $630M more than Bush on highways/bridges=jobs $1 B more than Bush on disease research $200 M more than Bush on health care for uninsured $35 B more than Bush on S-CHIP for uninsured kids $2 B more than Bush on homeland security $65 M more than Bush on food/medicine safety $1.5 B more than Bush on schools/Head Start $1.6 M more than Bush on law enforcement/crime 74% 71% 65% 64% 63% 68% 67% 63% 63%

  12. Swing voters worry most about pork-barrel projects. Which one or two of these concern you the most about how the Democrats in Congress would deal with these issues involving government spending? 2008 vote for Congress Democrat 26% 22% 16% 10% 7% Republican 11% 30% 48% 34% 20% Swings 18% 32% 25% 24% 10% The Democrats will not do enough to fund critical domestic priorities The Democrats will waste too much of our money on unnecessary pork-barrel projects The Democrats will end up raising everyone's taxes to pay for their spending programs The Democrats will go too far in increasing the size of government, with more big government programs The Democrats will bust the budget by increasing government spending too much

  13. Making the Democratic case turns a narrow edge into a strong advantage. When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations/spending bills, with whom are you more inclined to side? Support after Arguments Initial Support 57% +26 +6 46% 40% 31% Much more 42% Much more 26% Much more 25% Much more 18% Side with theDemocrats Side with Pres. Bush Side with theDemocrats Side with Pres. Bush

  14. Making the Democratic case turns a narrow edge into a strong advantage. When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations/spending bills, with whom are you more inclined to side? Support after Arguments Initial Support TotalDemGain Demo-crats PresBush Dems– Bush Demo-crats PresBush Dems– Bush All voters Swing votersIndependents Men/non-collegeMen/college grad Women/non-collegeWomen/college grad 46% 33%37% 33%33% 41%49% 40% 40%32% 52%59% 40%40% +6 -7+5 -19-26 +1+9 57% 53%57% 44%38% 58%59% 31% 25%18% 42%56% 27%34% +26 +28+39 +2-18 +31+25 +20 +35+34 +21 +8 +30+16

  15. Message Conclusions – I • This fight needs to be about more than Democrats’ desire to spend more money than President Bush (even on popular programs). • GOP/Bush willingness to spend on Iraq but not at home is a powerful critique and party contrast. • BUT the best positive statements of Democrats’ priorities are investing in the nation’s future and putting the middle class first. • Health care and homeland security are especially strong terrain for early fights.

  16. Message Conclusions – II • Democrats are fighting for people, not dollars: children insured, jobs created, ports secured, first responders hired, etc. • Examples of Democratic-initiated cuts in wasteful spending and budget reforms (earmark transparency) will enhance credibility. • $22 billion = just a 1% disagreement does not help: why should voters care?

  17. P e t e r D HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Winning The Battle Of Budget: Framing The Best Case In The Upcoming Appropriations Fights Research conducted for Americans United, AFSCME, and USAction National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing votersSeptember 2007

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