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ENERGY SECURITY & SUSTAINABILITY

ENERGY SECURITY & SUSTAINABILITY. TOM BURKE ROTHERHAM TOWN HALL OCTOBER 27 TH 2006. PUBLIC GOODS. CLIMATE SECURITY ENERGY SECURITY electricity generation transport fuels.

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ENERGY SECURITY & SUSTAINABILITY

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  1. ENERGY SECURITY & SUSTAINABILITY TOM BURKE ROTHERHAM TOWN HALL OCTOBER 27TH 2006

  2. PUBLIC GOODS • CLIMATE SECURITY • ENERGY SECURITY • electricity generation • transport fuels

  3. ‘we have got to start from the brutal honesty about the politics of how we deal with it. The truth is no country is going to cut its growth or consumption substantially in the light of a long-term environmental problem’TONY BLAIR

  4. WHITHER THE SCIENCE? • EXETER CONCLUSIONS • 20C • 0.70C • 0.70C • 380 ppm, 2.0ppm, 400ppm OCEAN ACIDIFICATION • 4AR – 2007

  5. STERN 1% 5 – 20%

  6. Highest cost 14 GtC 7 GtC Higher cost Lower cost Now 2050 Phase I Investment dominates Phase II Carbon prices dominate Regulation, taxation, carbon markets, investment

  7. THE TOOL KIT • Regulation • Taxation • Carbon pricing • Expenditure • Exhortation • Voluntary measures

  8. DIFFERING DYNAMICS • COAL - ELECTRICITY • OIL - TRANSPORT FUELS • GAS - HEAT & FEEDSTOCK • ELECTRICITY – COAL, GAS, NUCLEAR, HYDRO, RENEWABLES

  9. COAL

  10. WEO 2004 • ~ 1400 • ~ 600 China • ~ 200 India • ~ 600 RoW

  11. 145GtC

  12. IMPERATIVES • THERE IS NO POLITICALLY AVAILABLE ROUTE TO A STABLE CLIMATE THAT DOES NOT INVOLVE CHINESE, INDIAN AND AMERICAN COAL; • PREVENTING ‘LOCK IN’ TO CARBON INTENSIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN CHINA AND ELSEWHERE IS THE MOST URGENT PRIORITY (1400 BY 2030 ); • THIS WILL REQUIRE MAJOR PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN IGCC AND CCS IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES; • SUCH INVESTMENT WILL ALSO BRING ENERGY SECURITY, COMPETITIVENESS, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY BENEFITS.

  13. OIL

  14. STOP DIGGING HOLES REDUCE DEPENDENCY

  15. GAS

  16. SECURING ACCESS • ENFORCE EXISTING POLICY • ENHANCE COMPETITION • ACCELERATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT • INTEGRATE GRIDS • INCREASE STORAGE

  17. ELECTRICITY

  18. COAL • ENERGY EFFICIENCY • RENEWABLES & MICROGENERATION • NUCLEAR LIFE EXTENSION

  19. SIX PROVOCATIONS • The problem is far more urgent than you think. • Governments will not act in time. • Business is badly prepared to play its part • Economists not helping much – prices and costs don’t work. • Coal first. • We are not thinking about the right problem

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