Climate Change Science, politics, policies

1. Climate ChangeScience, politics, policies Rich Conant Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University

2. Irrefutable truths about climate change: • CO2 is a greenhouse gas • CO2 absorbs long-wave radiation – that’s physics • CO2 concentrations are increasing • CO2 occurs naturally • [CO2] has risen and fallen in the past • [CO2] is currently increasing rapidly • Human activities are driving current increases in atmospheric [CO2] • All else equal, more CO2 warmer temperatures • Historical correspondence • Recent changes

3. What about the climate of the future? • How do we make forecasts? • Climate models – not based on simple extrapolation • Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate system

4. CO2 emission growth rates • Fossil fuels, deforestation

5. What about the climate of the future? • How do we make forecasts? • Climate models – not based on simple extrapolation • Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate system • What are people doing? • CO2 emission growth rates • Deforestation rates

6. CO2 concentrations are increasing: • Human activities are driving increases in atmospheric CO2 (IPCC AR4 SPM)

7. Irrefutable truths about climate change: A metaphor for CO2 build-up Human emissions: 8.4 GtC/yr and growing; 12 GtC per year in2030; US currently emits 1.7 GtC, 2.2 GtC expected 2030 Dangerous anthropogenic interference w/ the climate system: 450ppm Atmospheric concentrations of >380 ppm, today, increasing by about 1-2 ppm/year A natural removal of about 2 GtC per year

8. POP QUIZ! #1 In order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide requires that net global emissions be reduced from today’s levels: • to 1990 levels • by 20% • by half • by nearly 100%

9. The Kaya identity: • Driving forces for CO2 emissions CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use)

10. The Kaya identity: • Population CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use)

11. The Kaya identity: • Limiting population to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Problems • Increased populations • Procreation • Motherhood • Large families • Immigration • Medicine • Public health • Sanitation • Peace • Law and order • Scientific agriculture • Accident prevention (drive 55) • Clean air • Ignorance of the population problem Solutions • Decreased populations • Abstention • contraception/abortion • Small families • Stop immigration • Disease • War • Murder/violence • Famine • Accidents • Pollution (smoking)

13. The Kaya identity: • Population CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperity • Energyintensity • Carbonintensity

14. The Kaya identity: • Prosperity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperity GDP per person • Energyintensity • Carbonintensity

15. The Kaya identity: • Prosperity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • Energyintensity • Carbonintensity

16. The Kaya identity: • Energy intensity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity

18. While the global economy grew since 1980, the world also became more energy efficient. This gain in efficiency is illustrated by a significant decline in “energy intensity” – a measure that reflects global energy demand divided by global GDP. For perspective, in 1980, it took over 2.5 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) energy to generate $1000 of economic output. Over the past 25 years, gains in efficiency helped lower energy intensity by about 1.0 percent per year. From 2005 to 2030, the rate of improvement is likely to increase to about 1.6 percent per year on average reflecting advances in development and deployment of new technologies. As a result, energy intensity in 2030 will be almost 50 percent below the level of 1980. What are all of the technologies to be developed and deployed, independent of climate policies?

19. IPCC 2007

20. Sheehan (2007)

21. The Kaya identity: • Energy intensity (IPCC AR4 SPM)

22. The Kaya identity: • Energy intensity (IPCC AR4 SPM)

23. 2007 Frozen Technology Baseline Actual emissions growth rate 2000-2006 = 3.3% per year (Raupach et al. 2007) 57.5 Billion tonnes carbon dioxide @ 3.0% 38.5 Billion tonnes carbon dioxide @ 1.2%

25. The Kaya identity: • Energy intensity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • EnergyintensityHappening in developed world • (but not in developing – where the real growthis!) • Carbonintensity

26. The Kaya identity: • Carbon intensity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • EnergyintensityHappening in developed world • (but not in developing – where the real growthis!) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use)

27. http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/images/enlarged_primaryenergy.jpghttp://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/images/enlarged_primaryenergy.jpg

28. The Kaya identity: • Carbon intensity (IPCC AR4 SPM)

29. The Kaya identity: • Carbon intensity (Pielke et al. 2008: Nature)

30. The Kaya identity: • Energy intensity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • EnergyintensityHappening in developed world • (but not in developing – where the real growthis!) • Carbonintensityhappening slowly; takes major investment

31. The Kaya identity: • Summary CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population # of people declining as wegrowricher • Economicprosperitywewant GDP per person to grow • EnergyintensityHappening in developed world • (but not in developing – where the real growthis!) • Carbonintensityhappening slowly; takes major investment

32. What about the climate of the future? • How do we make forecasts? • Climate models – not based on simple extrapolation • Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate system • What are people doing? • CO2 emission growth rates • Deforestation rates • Kyoto Protocol • US legislation

33. Perspective • Climate policy timeline 2008-2012: 1st Kyoto compliance period 2000-present: US legislation 2005: Kyoto into effect 2001: Marrakech accords 1997: Kyoto Protocol 1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b) 1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC

34. Perspective • Emissions, science, policy

35. What is being done?: • Multilevel governance • Kyoto Protocol • Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development • EU Emissions Trading System • Wal-Mart • Pew Business Environmental Leadership Council • Cities for Climate Protection Network International • Carbon tax in France • Land use/ag regulations in NZ • Waxman-Markey Bill (US) • China’s National Climate Change Programme • Japan’s efficiency program • Chicago Climate Exchange • Evangelical Climate Initiative • US Climate Action Partnership National • Carbon Rationing Action Groups • Climate Wise • New Belgium’s Sustainability Program • Personal actions • Fort Collins Climate Action Taskforce • Colorado Climate Action Plan • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Sub-national Public Private

36. What is being done?: • The Kyoto Protocol • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992/1994) • Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” • Commitments • Industrialized countries aim to stabilize GHG emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. • Reporting (emissions and policies)

37. What is being done?: • The Kyoto Protocol • Created in1997 / took effect in 2005 • Industrialized countries shall reduce aggregate GHG emissions 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. • Flexible Mechanisms • Emissions trading • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)/Joint Implementation (JI) • Sinks

38. What is being done?: • The Kyoto Protocol

39. What is being done?: • Policies 2009 (2011?): US climate/energy policy 2009: Copenhagen “We understand the gravity of the climate threat, we are determined to act, and we will meet our responsibility to future generations.” -Pres. Obama, last Tuesday 2007: Bali action plan

40. What is being done?: • Kyoto Protocol successor • The “Bali Roadmap” on post-2012 • Ad hoc working group on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention • Further commitments for industrialized Parties under the Protocol (“Kyoto successor”) Photos courtesy of IISD

41. What is being done?: • In-class assignment For your country: • Determinewhetheryour country islikely to be for or against the Kyoto Successor • Explain the main components of a FAIR international agreement • Explain how your country willreduceemissions in terms of the (1) the bath tub and (2) the Kaya Identity CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 person GDP energy Group1US Group5Oil exporter Group2China Group6Small Island Nation Group3Major European country Group7Latin America Group4Brazil Group8,9,0Any country of interest

42. What is being done?: • Important criteria for negotiations For your country: • Likely impacts of climate on nation • Population growth rates (now + future) • Economicgrowth rates (now + future) • Resouresavailable • Pastemissions • Land use sinks

43. What about the climate of the future? • How do we make forecasts? • Climate models – not based on simple extrapolation • Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate system • What are people doing? • CO2 emission growth rates • Deforestation rates • Kyoto Protocol • US legislation • What else can be done to mitigate emissions? • What can you do?

44. What can you do?: • What have you done this morning?

45. The Kaya identity: • Personal emissions CO2 emissions = people  GDP  energy  CO2 CO2 emissions = people  spending energy CO2 emissions = people CO2 emissions = people  spending CO2 emissions = people  spending  energy CO2 emissions = people  spending  energy CO2 CO2 emissions = people  spending  energy  CO2 CO2 emissions = people  spending CO2 emissions = people person spending energy person GDP energy person person spending person person spending energy person spending Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use) Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use) Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use) Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use) Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use) Just four factorsgovern the outcome: • Population Number of people • Economicprosperity GDP per person • EnergyintensityEnergy per unit of GDP • (energyefficiency of the economy) • Carbonintensity CO2 per unit of energy • (emissionsfromenergy production and use)