Climate Change: The Collision of Science, Politics, Economics & Ethics

1. U. Victoria Climate Change: The Collision of Science, Politics, Economics & Ethics Ken Denman Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada & Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisEnvironment Canada c/o University of Victoria, BC, Canada Email:ken.denman@ec.gc.ca HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

2. Outline • The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR4 • Process and main conclusions • Developments since AR4 – A sense of urgency • Progress on post-Kyoto controls on emissions • Economics and ethics • discounting the future: goods versus lives • possibility of extremely rare catastrophic events • Scientists and policy – where is the boundary? HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

3. The Working Group I Report • Started 2004 • Completed February 2007 • 152 Authors • ~450 contributors • ~600 expert reviewers • 30,000+ review comments[~3000 our chapter alone] Contents • Summary for Policymakers • Technical Summary • 11 Chapters • Frequently Asked Questions • ~5000 literature references • ~1000 pages HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

4. Dr. Andreas RechkemmerSenior Advisor for Science & PolicyGlobal Risk Forum DavosSenior AssociateEuropean Association of Development Research and Training InstitutesExecutive Director (on sabbatical), UN IHDP International Human Development Program on Global Environmental Change HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

5. Dr. Andreas RechkemmerNew Approaches toGlobal Climate ChangeGovernancePICSUniversity of Victoria4 May 2010 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

6. Definitions: Global Governance • Global governance… is the political interaction of transnational actors aimed at solving problems that affect more than one state or region when there is no power of enforcing compliance. en.wikipedia.org • The complex of formal and informal institutions, mechanisms, relationships and processes between and among states, markets, citizens and organizations, both inter- and non-governmental, through which collective interests on the global plane are articulated, rights and obligations are established, and differences are mediated.Thomas Weiss HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

7. The United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change • UNFCCC is a treaty produced at UNCED in 1992 • The Goal: To avoid dangerous interferences with the earth’s climate • Went into effect in March, 1994 (with 194 parties) • Governments gather and share information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices, launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries, cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change • Set 1990 as a benchmark year for the Kyoto Protocol HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

8. The Kyoto Protocol • The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. • The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. • These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the 5-year period 2008-2012. • The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so. • Adopted in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. 16/2/2005: Protocol officially went into effect. 2012: Kyoto will expire, a new agreement must go into effect. • Emissions trading: known as the “carbon market” HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

9. The Turning Point: Copenhagen CoP-15, Dec. 2009 Copenhagen ended with an agreement by some countries to cap the global temperature rise by (significant) emission reductions Start building a financial safety net for poorer & more vulnerable countries to climate change World leaders, including wealthy nations for the most part supported the Copenhagen Accord Two Degrees of Separation between the Copenhagen Accord and the Experts • C.A. "recognizes" the 2C goal but does not endorse it. • There is no peak year, and no collective target for cutting emissions. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

10. The Back and Front Door Geopolitics of the C.A.  The essential partners in this deal were the US and China. India, Brazil and South Africa played supporting roles - creating the kind of deal that suits the emerging major economies.  The EU did a lot of the spadework on the day before leaders arrived. But reportedly, it was not informed that Mr Obama and Mr Wen had done a deal and were preparing to announce it.  The EU decided not to stand up against the US and China, which emerge as the winners of this political game. • President Meles Zenawi (Ethiopia) emerged as Africa's political victor - the chosen champion of France and the UK as they sought African support for their finance proposal. He delivered the African Union. • Some 100 billion dollars has been pledged by developed countries to assist the most vulnerable nations to climate change HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

11. Science Informs Policy IPCC produces Scientific Assessments • must be 'policy neutral', NOT 'policy prescriptive' • all 40+ Future Scenarios are to be assessed equally UNFCCC develops Policy instruments • in the 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Report we said:"The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" • basically this statement gave governments the confidence to proceed to negotiate the Kyoto Protocol for controlling greenhouse gas emissions HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

12. C.A. and the Implications of InternationalEnvironmental Governance The concept that global environmental issues can and should be tackled on a co‐operative international basis has taken a massive blow.  It is now debatable whether the UN climate convention has a meaningful future, or whether powerful countries will just decide by themselves, or in a small group, by how much they are prepared to cut emissions.  The implications for other global treaties that are not meeting their goals, such as the UN biodiversity convention, can only be guessed at. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

13. The Future: Adaptive CC Governance • Real Governance provides a broader umbrella than nation‐centered • politics and/or institutions: • – The roles of knowledge, culture, norms, habits etc. • – Vertical & horizontal interplay • – Dynamics of multi‐level governance • – Multi‐actor focused • Interaction of actors, their sometimes conflicting objectives, and the • instruments chosen to steer social and environmental processes • within a particular policy area. • Institutions are a central component, as are the patterns of interaction • between actors and the multilevel institutional setting, creating • complex relations between structure and agency. • Towards a wide and open concept of ‘institution’. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

14. Will Stronger Science Lead to Stronger Policy??? In IPCC AR4 we state that "Warming of the climate system isunequivocal, as is now evident from observations … " & "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century isvery likely(>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" Emerging issues: HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

15. The Greenland Ice Sheet Contains 6 to 7 m of Sea Level Rise When Melted "Current models suggest … that the surface mass balance becomes negative at a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C." "The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when paleoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6 m of sea level rise." [AR4 Working Group I Summary for Policy Makers] Estimates for disappearance of the ice sheet range from 3000 years to 300 yrs(depending on the scenario we 'choose' to follow) HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

16. Recent observations of mass balance of ice sheets AR4 Mass balance of Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets Allison, I., R. Warner, H.A. Fricker, R.B. Alley and R.H. Thomas, 2009: Ice sheet contributions to sea level rise: a post IPCC AR4 assessment. Poster presented at AR5 meeting in Waikiki 2-6 March, 09. Greenland ice sheet Antarctic ice sheet HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

17. Observed rate of increase (3.5 % /year) for 2000-07 is ~4 times that in 1990s 2006 2006 2005 2005 Future CO2 Emissions Scenarios[from Raupach et al., US. Proc. Natl Acad SciVol. 104, 12 June 2007] # # Updated from the Global Carbon Project website, Oct. 2008 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

18. How Are Canadians Doing So Far? 'www.economist.com' November, 2008 2004 Carbon emissions per person: Globe (Canada)~1.2 tonnes/year ( ~5.5)= 4 tonnes CO2 /year ( ~20) HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

19. December 2007 FCCC Conference of the Parties 'CoP-13' in Bali • Over 10,000 participants from 180 countries • Objective:To work towards a post Kyoto Protocol agreement on emissions reductions, adaptation measures, etc. • A group of over 100 scientists, including me, signed a 'Bali Declaration' which was presented at the Conference "… Based on current scientific understanding, this requires that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by at least 50% below their 1990 levels by the year 2050. In the long run, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilised at a level well below 450 ppm (parts per million; measured in CO2-equivalent concentration). In order to stay below 2ºC, global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years, so there is no time to lose." [http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/news/2007/Bali.html] HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

20. And What Came Out of CoP-13 In Bali? • 'The Bali Roadmap' [http://unfccc.int] An agreement to negotiate and meet again at CoP-14 in Poznań in 2008 and reach an agreement at CoP-15 in Copenhagen in December 2009. • The progress made in Poznań, Poland in December 2008 was not encouraging: 'Déja-vu' all over again HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

21. What Other Drivers Are Influencing Our Actions on Climate Change Besides Science? HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

22. Economics Studies of the Costs / Benefits of Dealing with Climate Change Must Assign $$$ to Ethical Values Re: criticism of the 2006 700-page review of the costs of climate change by Sir Nicholas Stern, former vice president of the World Bank, who advocates strong action to mitigate the degree of climate change: "The contentious issue is the size of the 'pure-time' discount rate, which determineshow much the welfare of current generations is valued compared with future, as yet non-existent generations." [Nature, 445, 8 Feb 07, p.582] HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

23. How 'Discounting' Works John Broome, 'The Ethics of Climate Change', Scientific American, June 2008 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

24. What About Extremely Rare Severe Events? Martin Weitzman, Harvard Economist, states that Stern may have got it right for the wrong reasons. He argues that Integrated Assessment Models assume 'thin-tailed' Gaussian/normal probability distributions They miss extremely improbable catastrophic events, which are characterized by 'fat-tailed' distributions where neither the probability nor the extent of damage and economic costs can be estimated Examples: • Collapse and non-recovery of the Northern Cod stocks • Hurricane Katrina destroying New Orleans • The current economic meltdown HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

25. 'Fat' or 'Long-tailed' Probability Density Function (PDF) for Climate Sensitivity Climate Sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration AR4 gives likely(±1 sd ≈ 66%) range 2 – 4.5 0C with best estimate of 3 0C AR4 Box 10.2 Fig. 1 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

26. 'Mean' Cumulative PDF Suggests as High as 1 Chance in 10 of a Climate Sensitivity Greater Than 6 0C } Models AR4 Box 10.2 Fig 2 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

27. May 2005 DFO Climate Change Risk Assessment Report ‘No Go’ Zone HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

28. 2003 European Heat Wave Europe: ~35,000 deaths France: 14802 deaths Germany: ~7000 deaths Wikipedia '2003 European Heat Wave'; New Scientist, 10 Oct, 2003 HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

29. 2003 European Record Heat Wave AR4 FAQ 9.1 Distribution of Swiss Summer SurfaceTemperatures 1864-2003 Other examples of rare catastrophic events: - Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans - Collapse of the Northern Cod fishery - Current oil rig blowout in Gulf of Mexico HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

30. Are 'Rare' Events Becoming More Common Because the Distribution Is Shifting? We think so, but 'proving' this is not easy HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

31. Simulation of Frequency of Hurricane Intensities Now and in a '2xCO2' World Knutson and Tuleya, 2004, J. Climate, 17, 3477. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

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35. Hansen et al., 2007. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7 2287-2312. A Formula for Apportioning Emission Reductions According to Cumulative 'Benefit' Each country's cuts should be proportional to their cumulative emissions as per panel (e). Low emitters, e.g. 'Rest of World' or, say the bottom 50 emitters, should be exempted HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

36. A Precautionary Principle Martin Weitzman argues for a "Generalized Precautionary Principle" where we should take actions to avoid climate change that might take us towards these unpredictably rare catastrophies. [www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/papers_weitzman]'On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change' HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

37. Adopting a Precautionary Principle Means that if there is a reasonable possibility of a serious negative outcome, then The burden of proof is shifted from the 'conservers' to the 'proponents' or 'trustees' – who must demonstrate that actions on a natural system are sustainable – now and into the future. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

38. Ethics Without Economics- A Clearer View ? • Margaret Somerville, Medical Ethicist, McGill University • "Can we reasonably anticipate that future generations would consent to what we both do and don't do now? If not, ethics demand that we change our behaviour." • Globe & Mail, 1 May 07 i.e. We should act in such a way that we might 'anticipate the consent' of future generations HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

39. So What Should Scientists Do? • Acknowledge that other factors influence policy • Continue to improve our science-based forecasts of the earth system under various future scenarios • And, especially for proposed emission controls that we hope emerge from CoP-15 in Copenhagen next autumn • State clearly and repeatedly that for a given level of action (or inaction) on controlling emissions, our best scientific understanding is telling us to expect a given future climate and the related known and unknown impacts • This issue is too important to leave the policymakers to make the decisions of what actions our societies should take  HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

40. Thank Youken.denman@ec.gc.ca From the Union of Concerned Scientists website: http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

41. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures? - Survey sent to 10257 'Earth scientists' - Responses from 3146 - 'General Public' from a recent Gallup poll P. Doran and M. Kendall Zimmerman, 2009. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, EOS Trans. AGU, 90(3), 22-23. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

42. The Concept of 'Sustainability'[from: 'Our Common Future' - the Brundtland ReportWorld Commission on Environment and Development, 1987] 'Sustainable Development' is: "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." 'The Precautionary Principle' means that the burden of proof is shifting from the 'conservers' to the 'proponents' or 'trustees' – who must demonstrate that actions on a natural system are sustainable – now and into the future. In 2004 the British newspaper The Financial Times listed Gro Harlem Brundtland the 4th most influential European for the last 25 years, behind Pope John Paul II, Mikhail Gorbachev and Margaret Thatcher. HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

43. Scientists Need to Examine Mitigation Measures to Remove CO2 from the Atmosphere These are also referred to as 'Geo-engineering'proposals The most common options considered are: • Injection of sulphate aerosols or reflecting particles into the stratosphere to block incoming solar radiation • Large scale plantations for CO2 sequestration or biofuel production • Fertilization of large parts of the ocean with iron (Fe) to sequester more CO2 by enhancing photosynthesis by phytoplankton (microscopic plants) HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010

44. What Criteria Should a Mitigation Action Satisfy? If the objective is to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, then: "Any proposed mitigation action should sequester CO2 in sufficient quantity and for a sufficient time period to make a significant reduction in the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 , in a verifiable manner, and without deleterious unintended side effects." Most proposed geoengineering schemes have problems with 'sufficient quantity', longevity, verifiability, and possibly 'unintended side effects'! HawaiiTalk#3 June 2010