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More of the same, but faster ?

3G. More of the same, but faster ?. Or a chance to create a platform for real innovation ?. Simon de Haast simon@ideafarm.co.za / 083 326 3496. African Telecoms 2005 Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March. Disruptive Change. T he things we fear most in organizations

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More of the same, but faster ?

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  1. 3G More of the same,but faster? • Or a chance to create a platform for real innovation? Simon de Haast simon@ideafarm.co.za / 083 326 3496 African Telecoms 2005 Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March

  2. Disruptive Change The things we fear most in organizations -- fluctuations, disturbances, and imbalances -- are the primary sources of creativity. ~ Margaret J. Wheatley ~

  3. Deja moo? Spectrum auction fallout...

  4. My goal today • Offer new thinking frameworks & tools • Help you re-perceive the opportunitieswithin and around the mobile ecosystem

  5. Creating your own future? The fallacy of safety in numbers, or in more savage terms, the status quo

  6. Signature theme • The best way to • predict the future • is to invent it. • Alan Kay • ‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface

  7. Rear view innovation • Marshall McLuhan: • The “medium is the message” & • “the Global Village” guy • Smart fellow. Predicted the effects of having information at our beck and call, instantly through cable TV & the Internet - in the1960s.

  8. Rear view innovation • “When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. • We look at the present through a rear view mirror. • We march backwards into the future.” • - Marshall McLuhan

  9. Embedded Worldview • Mobile Telephone services • Linear shift to new generation networks • Voice-devicecentric

  10. A blank slate? • How differently would things look? • Long Tail? • Time-shifting? • Innovation possibilities?

  11. This innovation thing... • “Innovation begins with an eye” - IDEO • Hole in a wall, not a drill • Seeing stuff differently • Insight

  12. Creating your future II • Write the word • R E A C T I V E • on a piece of paper.

  13. Creating your future II • Write the word • R E A C T I V E • on a piece of paper. Now move the “C” to the front of the word.

  14. So how do you see things? • R E A C T I V E • C R E A T I V E

  15. Seeing Differently • Other worlds- DNA, RNA -> Distribution model... • Naïve experts & • Dumb questions • Vu jàdé- where to put the armour plating?

  16. Innovation Lag • Peter Senge - The Fifth Discipline • Ensemble of component technologies: 30-40yrs • DC-3: • variable pitch propeller • retractable landing gear, • monocque body construction • radial air-cooled engine • wing flaps • + later, radar & jet engines. vs Boeing 247?

  17. Making connections • “I’m not sure • who discovered water, • but I’m pretty sure • it wasn’t a fish.”

  18. The Long Tail • Chris Anderson - Wired.com • - Amazon, Netflix biz models

  19. The Long Tail The Long Tail

  20. The Long Tail • “Touching the Void” - mediocre seller • ...1o years later, “Into Thin Air” • Big success • Then Void sales increased- now 2:1 • Bye bye 80:20 rule in bit-based business

  21. Long Tail with 3G • iPod Shuffle + Cellphone • Flat rate music download • DRM expires content unless bought • Choice widens, curiosity incentive • Wag the Long Tail • “Lease” content to other devices-keep renewing periodically

  22. Time-Shifting • VCRs • My time, not their time! • TiVO....RSS...BitTorrent...Google Video • Me-TV • Not anonymous on network

  23. We’re just warming up! • Operators: Advanced Services = Key DifferentiatorIncrease ARPU, more SIM provisioning • Users: 70%Simple phone please!!Simple phone please!!

  24. Thinking outside the handset • Mobile phone service components • - Handset • - SIM card • - Wireless network • - Content and services provision • - Billing system • - Customer relationship.

  25. Thinking outside the handset • Creatively re-combine: • - Handset • - SIM card • - Wireless network • - Content and services provision • - Billing system • - Customer relationship. + Small box of electronics

  26. 3G Appliance • Something to consume Long Tail and Time Shifted services with • Operator sells another SIM card

  27. 3G Appliance • Just some scenarios • Creating possibilities! • What business am I really in?

  28. The ‘Un-dialed’ • Borrow from the banks...unbanked. • Mzansi: No frills bank account • Do the same for a no-frills telecoms service?

  29. Key Point “When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the future.” - Marshall McLuhan

  30. Thank you Simon de Haast simon@ideafarm.co.za / 083 326 3496 A copy of the talk will be available on www.ideafarm.co.za/blog African Telecoms 2005 Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March

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