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Policy making and uncertainty assessment

Policy making and uncertainty assessment. Practical implications of the MNP-RIVM approach. Jan Wijmenga. 2002: MSc. in science & policy and international environmental law, Utrecht University 2002: Ministry of Agriculture, International affairs dept.

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Policy making and uncertainty assessment

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  1. Policy making and uncertainty assessment Practical implications of the MNP-RIVM approach

  2. Jan Wijmenga • 2002: MSc. in science & policy and international environmental law, Utrecht University • 2002: Ministry of Agriculture, International affairs dept. • 2003-2006: policy advisor, Environment committee, European Parliament • 2006-current: senior policy advisor, Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment • Revision of EU air quality directive • Revision of EU NEC directive • Effects of climate mitigation measures on air quality INTARESE - Copenhagen

  3. Ministry vs Agency • The Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) is a government agency, providing evaluations of and projections for the government’s policy • Although the government supplies most of its budget and requests the larger part of the published reports, MNP can also independently decide to publish reports on items it considers valuable • Certainly for projections, uncertainty assessment plays an important role INTARESE - Copenhagen

  4. Case: attainment of air quality standards • EU directives require attainment of limit values for particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and several other substances • Dutch courts refuse building permits if air quality at building site does not meet the limit values when they enter into force INTARESE - Copenhagen

  5. Uncertainty in pollutant concentrations • Uncertainty in the concentrations used in PM10 maps is substantial: • 15 to 30% for a specific • year and 20 to 40% for future assessments. The overall uncertainty along streets and • highways can total 45%. INTARESE - Copenhagen

  6. Case: meeting NEC-ceilings • NEC-directive (2001/81/EC) sets emissions ceilings for four polluting gases: NOx, SO2, NH3 and VOC, not to be exceeded after 2010. INTARESE - Copenhagen

  7. Uncertainty in achieving NEC-targets • Although the emissions of the NEC gases are declining, according to MNP it is not certain that all ceilings will be met: INTARESE - Copenhagen

  8. Uncertainty & Policy making • The eternal dilemma: • Scientists want to have the • most accurate result • Politicians want the • best accepted result • Lawyers want the • mostconvincing result The result of showing uncertainty in concentrations or emission data: “...not very convincing... ...much too positive... ...action is needed!” Comments by Ms Cramer, Minister for Environment  Extra pressure from politicians and stakeholders on additional abatement measures. INTARESE - Copenhagen

  9. Concluding • In order to have a clear sight on the attainment of environmental targets, knowledge of uncertainties is essential • However, too much uncertainties may lead to a pressure on additional measures, which can have adverse effects on business INTARESE - Copenhagen

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