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Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification July – September 2014 (Issued: October 15, 2014)

Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification July – September 2014 (Issued: October 15, 2014). Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist

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Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification July – September 2014 (Issued: October 15, 2014)

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  1. Seasonal Climate ForecastVerificationJuly – September 2014(Issued: October 15, 2014) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us ODA Production support from Diana Walker and Andy Zimmerman

  2. Format and Purpose: • A side-by-side comparison of the “Seasonal Climate Forecast” vs. what (Actually Occurred) is done for both the 1-month & 3-month forecasts. • To assess the utility of this forecast and form a basis for adjustments to the forecast method*. • Note: 1981-2010 long-term averages are used. * See “Forecasting Methods…” at: http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Pages/Weather.aspx

  3. Verification Updates: • This forecast method verifies best during El Niño (warm) or La Niña (cold) events. ENSO-neutral winters are more varied and usually have more “extreme” weather events. • A return to the “cool phase” of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which occurred no later than 2007, appears to be significantly influencing Oregon’s weather. • Using analog years from other “cool phase” periods should help to limit forecast error. However, most of those years are prior to 1977. That adds error due to longer-term changes in climate, which is constantly in flux.

  4. July 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  5. July 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  6. July 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014)/(Actual) • Wide ranging analog solutions made for very low forecast confidence. “Extreme” temperatures in either direction possible, but no clear departure from “average” indicated. (Temperatures were warmer than average statewide.) • Drier than average conditions likely. Since July is typically a very dry month, the graphic can’t depict large negative departures from average. (Precipitation was generally below normal.)

  7. August 2014(Forecast Issued July 15, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  8. August 2014(Forecast Issued July 15, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  9. August 2014(Forecast Issued July 15, 2014)/(Actual) • There was enough variation in the analog years to significantly lower forecast confidence… • Slightly cooler than average. (Above average temperatures statewide.) • Precipitation near to above average.(Precipitation was below average west of the Cascades and near to above average across the remainder of the state.)

  10. September 2014(Forecast Issued August 21, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  11. September 2014(Forecast Issued August 21, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  12. September 2014(Forecast Issued August 21, 2014)/(Actual) • Above average temperatures, especially central and eastern zones. (Temperatures were above average statewide.) • Generally below average rainfall; except near average along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. (Precipitation was generally near average.)

  13. July – September 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  14. July – September 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation 68 57 Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  15. July – September 2014(Forecast Issued June 19, 2014)/(Actual) • A cooler-than-average August countered by a warmer-than-average September, with no significant 3-month temperature anomalies indicated. (Temperatures were generally above average statewide during each of the three months.) • Above average August precipitation skews the graphic for the 3-month period to above average, mainly for the coast and the NW zones. (Precipitation was near average for the period.)

  16. Updated Monthly(around the 15th) Your Feedback is Welcome! Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

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