DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

Skopje - 22.3.2002 DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION • Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities • Indicative measures and policies • Evaluation of the measures • Priorities according to local experts • Concluding remarks DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

CO2– eq emisions for 2000 (estimates) Energy sector 10787 kt CO2 14036 kt CO2 Distribution of CO2 emissions First priority: Measures that affect electricity production DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

GREECE Power generation 2000 52200 GWh Power generation 2000 6441 GWh Power generation Electric efficiency: 40% CO2 emission factor:0.98 tCO2/MWh Electric efficiency: 35% CO2 emission factor:0.95 tCO2/MWh DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation • High Priority: • Reduce solids - increase renewables (hydro, wind) and natural gas in power generation mix • Improve efficiency • “Clean” technologies (hydro, NG) for base load • Minimize transmission losses • The goal is to improve energy efficiency of the existing infrastructure and to gradually upgrade the whole sector by adding cleaner and more efficient technologies. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors • The aim should be 3-fold: • To increase energy efficiency through minimisation of energy losses • To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment • To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector • Improved maintenance of central heating systems • Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings (insulation + double glazing) • Updating building specifications for new buildings • Buildings shading • Use of low energy lamps • Use of efficient domestic appliances • Automatisation in lighting • Solar water heating systems • Further penetration of natural gas • District heating with biomass • CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc) DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector • Improved maintenance of energy equipment • Energy conservation (reduction of losses) • Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas • Cogeneration with natural gas • Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues) DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector • Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks and buses • Improvement of road network • Improvement in traffic lighting • Promotion of public transport • Increased natural gas in public transport DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Evaluation of measures • Cost estimation • Cost per ton of CO2saved (specific cost) • Contribution to CO2 emissions’ abatement • Marginal abatement cost curve • Additional criteria • Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers) • Environmental synergies • Impact on employment and regional development DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Cost per ton of CO2 saved • Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option • Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the reference time period (e.g. 1year) • Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure) • Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation • Cost of measure per ton of CO2 saved: DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

CO2 abatement estimation • Specify the target year • Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year • Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year: • CO2ab=(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit unitstarg_year  penetration_rate DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Greek case: ranking according to the specific cost of measures DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Greek case: ranking according to the CO2 abatement in 2010 DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Greek case: Marginal abatement cost curve for 2010 DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Example: Economy lamps • Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps • Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m2) • Reference time period: 1 year DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Example: Economy lamps (2) • Annualized cost per lamp: • Incandescent: 0.88 € • Economy lamp: CRF(4%, 8 years)14.67 =0.149 14.67 = 2.19 € • Annualized cost per household: • Incandescent: 7.1 lamps/household  0.88 €/lamp = 6.22 € • Economy lamps: 7.1 lamps/household  2.19 €/lamp = 15.40 € • Annual electricity cost (~ 0.062 €/kWh): • Incandescent: 0.062 €/kWh  294 kWh = 18.11 € • Economy lamps: 0.062 €/kWh  73 kWh = 4.53 € DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Example: Economy lamps (3) • Total annual cost per household: • Incandescent: 6.22 € + 18.11 € = 24.33 € • Economy lamps: 15.40 € + 4.53 € = 19.93 € • Power generation data • Transmission losses: 10% • Average emission factor (2010): 0.987 kg CO2/kWh • Power generation CO2 emissions per household • Incandescent: 0.987  294/(1- 0.1) = 322 kg CO2 • Economy lamps: 0.987  73/(1- 0.1) = 81 kg CO2 DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Example: Economy lamps (4) • Abatement cost: • (19.93€ – 24.33€) / (322 kgCO2 – 81 kgCO2) = -18.22 €/ tCO2 • Number of households in 2010: ~ 600.000 • Penetration of the measure until 2010: ~ 50% • CO2 abatement in 2010: • 600.000  (322 kgCO2 – 81 kgCO2)  0.5 = 72.3 kt CO2 DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001) DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Questionnaire results (2) DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

Concluding remarks • First priority: Power generation sector • Criteria for the evaluation of measures • Cost per ton of CO2 saved • CO2 abatement for target year • Applicability, synergies, employment • Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases