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DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

Tirana – 08.04.2002. DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases. Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction. George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS. Structure of the presentation.

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DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

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  1. Tirana – 08.04.2002 DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

  2. Structure of the presentation • Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities • Indicative measures and policies • Evaluation of the measures • Priorities according to local experts • Concluding remarks DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  3. Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  4. Focus: Energy sector CO2 emissions from the energy sector DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  5. Power generation characteristics • Installed capacity • 1446 MW hydro power • 35 MW thermal power • Production • 99% from hydro power (normal year: 4300 GWh) • Recognized problems • High T&D losses (~25%) • Strong dependence on hydrological conditions DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  6. Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation • The future • Further exploitation of hydro potential (now only 35%) • It is unavoidable to cover the increased electricity demand by thermal power plants (TPP) in order to enhance the security of supply (diversification of power supply mix) • Forecasted capacity of TPP till 2020 ~850 MW • Share of TPP production ~40% in 2020 • High Priority • Reduce T&D losses • Clean and efficient technologies for TPP units Natural gas > Oil > Coal DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  7. Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors • The aim should be 3-fold: • To increase energy efficiency through minimisation of energy losses • To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment • To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  8. Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector • Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings (insulation + double glazing) • Updating building specifications for new buildings • Buildings shading • Use of low energy lamps • Use of efficient domestic appliances • Solar water heating systems • Penetration of natural gas • District heating • CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  9. Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector • Improved maintenance of energy equipment • Energy conservation (reduction of losses) • Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas • Cogeneration with natural gas • Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  10. Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector • Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks and buses • Improvement of road network • Improvement in traffic lighting • Promotion of public transport • Increased natural gas in public transport DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  11. Evaluation of measures • Cost estimation • Cost per ton of CO2saved (specific cost) • Contribution to CO2 emissions’ abatement • Marginal abatement cost curve • Additional criteria • Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers) • Environmental synergies • Impact on employment and regional development DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  12. Cost per ton of CO2 saved • Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option • Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the reference time period (e.g. 1 year) • Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure) • Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  13. CO2 abatement estimation • Specify the target year • Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year • Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year: • CO2ab=(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit unitstarg_year  penetration_rate DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  14. Evaluation of the measures: The case of Albania • Quantification of 26 measures in the energy sector • Residential sector: 9 • Services: 3 • Industry: 5 • Transport: 1 • Agricultural: 1 • Energy Transformation: 7 DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  15. Ranking according to the specific cost of measures DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  16. Ranking according to the CO2 abatement in 2020 DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  17. Marginal abatement cost curve for 2020 DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  18. Comments • Almost all the studied measures are beneficial even from a financial point of view • Mostly energy conservation measures and some fuel-switch • In 2020 the potential of CO2 emissions abatement is about 7 Mt. It can be attained with measures that are also economical acceptable. DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  19. Example: Economy lamps • Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps • Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m2) • Reference time period: 1 year DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  20. Example: Economy lamps (2) • Annualized cost per lamp: • Incandescent: 1.1 € • Economy lamp: CRF(5%, 8 years)18.9 =0.155 18.9 = 2.93 € • Annualized cost per household: • Incandescent: 5 lamps/household  1.1 €/lamp = 5.5 € • Economy lamps: 5 lamps/household  2.93 €/lamp = 14.7 € • Annual electricity cost (~ 0.098 €/kWh): • Incandescent: 0.098 €/kWh  315 kWh = 30.9 € • Economy lamps: 0.098 €/kWh  57 kWh = 5.6 € DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  21. Example: Economy lamps (3) • Total annual cost per household: • Incandescent: 5.5 € + 30.9 € = 36.4 € • Economy lamps: 14.7 € + 5.6 € = 20.3 € • Power generation data • Transmission losses: 15% • Average emission factor (2020): 0.263 kg CO2/kWh • Power generation CO2 emissions per household • Incandescent: 0.263  315/(1- 0.15) = 97 kg CO2 • Economy lamps: 0.263  57/(1- 0.15) = 18 kg CO2 DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  22. Example: Economy lamps (4) • Abatement cost: • (20.3€ – 36.4€) / (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2) = -204 €/ tCO2 • Number of households in 2020: ~ 1,440,000 • Penetration of the measure until 2020: ~ 50% • CO2 abatement in 2020: • 1,440,000  (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2)  0.5 = 56.9 kt CO2 DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  23. Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  24. Questionnaire results (2) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  25. Questionnaire results (3) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  26. Questionnaire results (4) DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

  27. Concluding remarks • Priorities: • Further exploitation of natural gas • Secure electricity supply with TPP using “clean” fuels • Energy conservation • Exploitation of renewable energy sources • Criteria for the evaluation of measures • Cost per ton of CO2 saved • CO2 abatement for target year • Applicability, synergies, employment • Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

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