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Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Navigating the Flightpath to 2050

This insightful report by Dr. Chris Malins from February 2019 provides an in-depth analysis of alternative aviation fuels, outlining the challenges and opportunities in transitioning the industry towards sustainable practices. It discusses various fuel options like HEFA, biomass-to-jet, alcohol-to-jet, and power-to-jet, examining their pros and cons. The text also covers the demonstration phase of biofuels, policy implications, neutrality concerns, and the potential impacts of adopting alternative fuels on aviation costs and land requirements. Dr. Malins, an expert in alternative fuels policy and sustainability, offers valuable insights for government, business, and civil society stakeholders looking to shape the aviation industry's future.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Navigating the Flightpath to 2050

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  1. Alternative aviation fuels Flightpath to 2050? Dr Chris Malins February 2019

  2. About Cerulogy • Consultancy of Dr Chris Malins, formerly: • Fuels lead for the ICCT • Communications lead for Renewable Fuels Agency • Representative for ICSA on several ICAO committees (AFAHG, SUSTAF, AFTF) • Experts in alternative fuels policy and sustainability, working for government, business and civil society

  3. Why alternative fuels? • Aviation industry continues to grow rapidly (~4% annual) • Climate impact significant now, and growing with industry • Aviation in general not readily electrifiable • License to operate requires aviation industry to become consistent with [1.5/2] degree future Source: WEF (2011) Policies and Collaborative Partnership for Sustainable Aviation

  4. That’s a lot of alternative jet fuel… • The ICAO secretariat has presented scenarios for alternative fuel meeting from 4% to 100% of 2050 alternative fuel demand Current global biodiesel production

  5. So, what are the options? • HEFA • Biomass-to-jet • Alcohol-to-jet • Power-to-jet

  6. HEFA • Hydrotreated oils and lipids • Pros: • demonstrated technology; • commercially operational (heading towards 10 billion litres global capacity); • cost proposition well understood • Cons: • feedstocks (vegetable oils) costly -> no prospect of being cheaper than jet fuel; • Indirect emissions believed to be high for main vegetable oils; • preferred feedstocks include palm oil and PFAD; • food vs. fuel

  7. Biomass-to-jet • Synthetic jet fuel via pyrolysis and upgrading or gasification and synthesis of ‘generic’ biomass • Pros: • low cost feedstock, potential cost reduction for process over time; • each technology stage has been demonstrated (e.g. in GtL/CtL) • Cons: • Full process not commercially demonstrated; • high capital cost; • high cost in short term; • uncertainty over achievable cost profile; • some sustainability issues

  8. Alcohol-to-jet • Produce ethanol (conventional; cellulosic; ‘recycled carbon’ via CO fermentation) • Thermochemical upgrading to hydrocarbons • Pros: • Does not depend on vegetable oils • Builds on established ethanol industry • Cons: • Converting a supported biofuel into less volume of supported biofuel • Cost • If using conventional ethanol, inherit sustainability issues

  9. Power-to-jet • Synthesise jet fuel from hydrogen and carbon dioxide • Pros: • low sustainability risk; • relatively low land footprint; • cost of renewable electricity falling • Cons: • rather inefficient compared to other uses for electricity (maybe 50% conversion of electrical energy to chemical energy); • process not commercially demonstrated; • high cost in short and medium term (cf. bit.ly/e-fuels) • require electricity at below ~3 cents/kWh to approach price parity

  10. Demonstration phase • Many airlines have trialled biofuels • Some airports now offer biofuelling options (e.g. Stockholm, Halmstad, Oslo) • Various supportive initiatives • However, larger scale ambitions have not been fulfilled • EU target of 2 million tonnes by 2020 (Flightpath 2020) • U.S. target of 2 billion gallons by 2020

  11. No regrets? Modal priorities… • Fuel synthesis generally produces mixed molecules • Petrol range (incl. naphtha) • Jet/diesel range (mid-distillates) • Achieve up to ~85% selectivity of mid-distillates • Molecules suitable for upgrading to jet fuel will also be suitable for upgrading to road diesel • Developing syn-diesel technologies means developing syn-jet technologies, and vice versa • Aviation ‘needs’ alt-fuels more than road due to chronic reliance on liquids… • … but, road transport will be using a lot of liquid fuel for the foreseeable future • …there’s no obvious environmental benefit from forcing alt fuels into jets instead of road diesel in the near term (especially while volumes are small)

  12. Policy and neutrality • In past, fuel supplied to aviation has not been eligible for alternative fuel support (original rules of RED, RFS, LCFS…) • This has been somewhat resolved by making aviation fuels eligible for credit • Jet fuel suppliers not obligated parties • Implicit subsidy of alt aviation fuel by road fuel consumers • Aviation may need larger incentives • e.g. 1.2 x multiplier for RED II • UK ‘Development Fuel’ mandate favours drop-in molecule production • …but this could imply even larger cross-subsidisation • Multiple incentives? • e.g. RED II plus CORSIA

  13. CO2 abatement cost • Alternative fuels expected to need high implied CO2 abatement cost to drive commercial viability • Biofuels: 200-400 €/tCO2e • PtL: 500+ €/tCO2e • Implications for cost of aviation • Moving to 50% PtL by 2050 could double total aviation fuel spend (bit.ly/e-fuels) • Could affect demand growth

  14. Land requirements • Replacing all EU aviation full with power-to-jet would take up to ~13 million hectares of renewable electricity generation at current typical German areal energy yields (comparable to size of Greece) • Compare to 6 million hectares in EU currently devoted to biomass for energy • Improved renewable energy yields -> smaller areas required • Doing the same with biomass-to-liquids (perennial grasses on marginal land) would take something like four times that area (~60 Mha, similar to the size of Ukraine) • Rapeseed oil HEFA double that again, 120 Mha • Expanding HEFA use to cover any significant fraction of aviation fuel would have major impact on vegetable oil markets • Direct and/or indirect impact on palm oil and other oil crops expansion • Global replacement has proportionately higher resource demands

  15. Lifecycle emissions and indirect land use change – example of palm

  16. Non-CO2 climate impacts • No demonstrated impact of synthetic fuels on non-CO2 climate impacts • At least one paper suggests possibility of reductions • Would give an environmental reason to prioritise synthetic fuels into aviation • Even with 100% alternative fuels, climate impact of aviation could still be large • Additional solutions are needed for non-CO2

  17. Conclusions • Fourmain alt aviation fuel technology families • HEFA, BtL, AtJ, PtL • All have higher costs than jet • PtL and BtL have higher current costs, but prospect of long term cost reduction • Total replacement of aviation fuel by 2050 would require massive volume (compared to current biofuel industry) • Massive volumes would mean very large resource/land requirements and cost implications • Some alternative aviation fuels could have (very) poor climate performance (e.g. palm HEFA) • Alternative aviation fuels alone cannot resolve non-CO2 climate impact of aviation

  18. Questions? chris@cerulogy.com

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