Hybrid Warfare in the Maritime and Information Environments

1. Hybrid Warfare in the Maritime and Information Environments 27 September 2019 Dr Adrian Venables

2. Dr Adrian Venables E-mail: adrian.venables@taltech.ee Former Role: Royal Navy Communications, Electronic Warfare and Intelligence Officer Current Role: Senior Researcher at Taltech Other roles: Commander, Royal Naval Reserve Research focus: The use of cyberspace as a domain of operations Topics: The development of cyber strategy and policy to counter the Hybrid Warfare threat

3. ‘Hybrid warfare’ is a commonly used term Like ‘cyber’ it means different things to different audiences There are some common characteristics in all definitions • Combiningconventional and non-conventionalmethods Main one is that it is not ‘new’ • How it is employed and coordinated though is It is ongoing in peace and wartoachievestrategicobjectives What is hybrid warfare?

4. Hybrid warfare involvesoperations conducted by state or non-state actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm the target by influencing its decision-making at the local, regional, state or institutional level. Such actions are coordinated and synchronized and deliberately target democratic states’ and institutions’ vulnerabilities. Activities can take place, for example, in the political, economic, military, civil or information domains. They are conducted using a wide range of means and designed to remain below the threshold of detection and attribution. (Hybrid Warfare CofE - https://www.hybridcoe.fi/what-is-hybridcoe/) What is hybrid warfare?

5. Hybrid threats are those posed by adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives Hybrid threats are comprised of, and operate across, multiple systems / sub systems (including economic/financial, legal, political, social and military / security) simultaneously (NATO Bi Strategic Command Capstone Concept 2010) NATO definition of hybrid warfare

6. Creation of strategic effects at tactical level Use of ‘lawfare’ by use of actions ambiguous in international law Extensive use of information warfare • Fake news / propaganda/ psychological ops / deception • Exploiting social media to reach individuals Use of Smart Power • Combining hard coercive power with soft power of attraction What is hybrid warfare – one view

7. Information is pervasive throughout all operational environments The information environment comprises and aggregates characterstics that impact knowledge, understanding, beliefs, world views and ultimately actions • Social • Cultural • Cognitive • Technical • Physical attributes The Information Environment

8. The way individuals, information systems, and groups communicate and exchange information is important Humans perceive a situation in a particular way based on how the information they receive is interpreted Understanding the interplay between the informational, physical, and human aspects provides a unified view of the Information Environment The Information Environment

9. The maritime environment does not operate in isolation • Unlike in the past where ships were more independent • New cultural issues to contend with – how are actions seen? Its global importance means that it is a prime target for hybrid operations Flagged shipping is a good way to attack adversary states locally but with an international impact What has this got to do with the Maritime Environment?

10. Maritime Hybrid Warfare in the past - Deception

11. Utilised by China, Russia and North Korea Most effective in coastal waters • More publicity and greater concentration of vessels Identity of shipping ambiguous Uniforms may not be worn Difficult to counter with conventional forces Maritime Hybrid Warfare today

12. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - China

13. Effective at intimidating, degrading and destroying capability No official attribution so no sanctions or retaliation Gives China the initiative and element of surprise Less expensive than specialised military vessels Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - China

14. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Iran Iran frustrated with US sanctions Sanctions reimposed after US withdrew from 2015 nuclear deal Attacks on tankers have been linked to Iran • Torpedoes and mines possibly used At least 3 tankers seized including 2 UK flagged July 2019

15. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Iran Iran has raised stakes in Gulf Seizing tankers extends global power Issues over flag of convenience though • Crews may not be British Forced UK to send additional vessels to region - unsustainable in long run Gives initiative to Iran August 2019

16. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - US New York Times reported US cyberattack on Iran Destroyed database used to plan attacks on oil tankers Degraded Iran’s ability to target ships Attacks included targeting computer systems and military communication networks Good example of hybrid effects in information environment Loss of future intelligence might be significant though August 2019

17. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Russia Russia seized Ukrainian vessels in November 2018 • 2 patrol boats and a tug taken • 24 sailors held Sailors not recognised as prisoners of war Treatedas anorganized crime group Well established technique of subversion and destabilisation November 2018

18. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Russia Places pressure on Ukraine on maritime as well as land and cyber domains Shows riskiness of doing business with Ukraine Ukraine cannot navigate freely Demonstration of power by Russia

19. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Russia On 7 September sailors released Part of large scale prisoner exchange 35 prisoners exchanged Ukraine released Vladimir Tsemakh – a key witness in the downing of MH17 Suspected of commanding an air defence unit at the time of the disaster

20. Maritime Hybrid Warfare today - Russia Part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign against Ukraine Little green men first seen during the invasion of Crimea in 2014 Not Petya cyberattack on users of Ukrainian tax accounting software ‘MeDoc’ in 2017

21. What do these three examples show us? Strategic lessons • China, Iran and Russia are exerting regional maritime dominance • Actions cannot be easily countered by conventional means • Actions are well publicized – the message is clear Tactical lessons • What is the effect on other mariners? • Will it affect other nations’ behavior? • What are the regional implications? Maritime Hybrid Warfare and the Information Environment

22. Don’t forget our people Companies recruit on Internet connectivity for crew members Mariners can be targeted directly through social media • Small enclosed communities onboard many be easily influenced Masters of vessels no longer masters of information onboard Can our crews be subverted, deterred or intimidated? Maritime Hybrid Warfare and the Information Environment

23. Education and awareness Accept that you are part of a bigger picture Know your geopolitics Work with other shipping companies and navies Listen to your nation’s official sources and insurance companies Be prepared by planning and workshop likely scenarios Avoid becoming a likely victim – but have the adversaries then won? Be wary of escalation – unless that’s what you want Countering Maritime Hybrid Warfare today

24. Hybrid warfare is ongoing, it happens in all stages of conflict • Primarily a non military activity The maritime environment will be used in hybrid warfare Information is at the heart of subversion and destabilisation It will be part of a wider strategy – not just a maritime effect The concept is well know and will be used to avoid kinetic conflict Conclusions

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