Our purpose: to be an observer, thinker, practitioner, and generator

1. Our purpose:to be an observer, thinker, practitioner, and generator

2. What is systems thinking?

3. Systems thinking is a way of seeing and talking about reality that help us better understand and work with systems to influence the quality of our lives.

4. What is a system?

5. Collections versus systems • Bowl of fruit • Football team • Toaster • Tools in a toolbox • A marriage • car

6. All the parts are interrelated and interdependent in some way.

7. What is reality?

8. Events Patterns Systemic Structures

9. time

10. 事件思考 時間短 空間窄 外生觀 趨勢思考 結構思考 時間長 空間廣 內生觀 心智模式

11. What do systems do?

12. How do the consequences of my actions feed back the system?

14. Feedback loop with goal, status, and action.

15. Mental model

16. Feedback • 一輛汽車 和 它的駕駛人 • 一只手錶 和 戴這手錶的人 • 運轉中的引擎 和 節氣閥 • 割草機 和 操作員 • 一個人(生理及心理)(社會及經濟) • 一個R&D部門本身 和 顧客的需求 • 公司的生產程序 和 顧客所下的訂單

17. 目標水位 + + 差距 - + 開水 水位

18. 目標存貨 + + 訂貨 差距 - + 庫存

19. 利息收入 + + 本金

20. Events Patterns Systemic Structures 壓拇指的遊戲

21. Events Patterns Systemic Structures 流浪犬

22. Events Patterns Systemic Structures 人口成長

23. 環形思考的語言  AB ==AB AB ==AB 

24. 環路的基本組成 • flow、wire • level 積量、狀態(是決策資訊的來源) • rate率量、行動(是決策的結果) • 資訊回饋環路(information feedback loop) • 操作性(activity-base)的因果關係(結構)

25. 關 心 的 變 數 時間 正環 (持續增強的loop) • 初期沒有感覺，突然間冒出來，令人措手不急 • 動態行為：

26. 正環的結構 偶數個負號

27. 體會： X0=1;R=0 Xt=(Xt-1+R)2 X30= 1 R=0.0000001 X30= 42,846,266,591,510,742,011,900,000,000,000

28. 布袋蓮 + + 出生 • 布袋蓮 5天前

29. + 恐慌 資金流失 + + 擠兌人數 或金額 • 案例： • 都市的流浪犬數 • 吸毒人口 • 愛滋病人 • 擠兌 • 謠言、口碑

30. 關 心 的 變 數 時間 正環 (持續增強的loop) • 初期沒有感覺，突然間冒出來，令人措手不急 • 動態行為：

31. 正環的結構 偶數個負號

32. 體會： X0=1;R=0 Xt=(Xt-1+R)2 X30= 1 R=0.0000001 X30= 42,846,266,591,510,742,011,900,000,000,000

33. + 恐慌 資金流失 + + 擠兌人數 或金額 • 案例： • 都市的流浪犬數 • 吸毒人口 • 愛滋病人 • 擠兌 • 謠言、口碑

34. 負環 (持續調節的loop) • 目標導向的行動 • 型一：顯性的負環 (目標明顯易辨認) • 行為： 關切變數 目標 時間

35. 目標水位 + 開水 + + 差距 水位 - • 結構：奇數個負號 • 案例： • 存貨的調節、冷暖氣機 • 並非所有目標導向的行動都能構成負環 • 生病吃香灰

36. 目標存貨 + + 訂貨 差距 - + 庫存

37. 擾動 關切變數 目標 時間 • 型二：隱性負環 • 隱含性目標不易辨認，易忽視它的存在 • 產生穩定、抗拒、惰性、慣性 • 努力個半天，結果仍在原地 • 行為：

38. 案例： 抓走私 降低工時 • 如何發現?(可從整體系統對干擾目的的評價來察覺)

39. 時間滯延 (time delay) • 客體 • 花時間傳送與累積 • 物質傳送 • 資訊傳送 • 主體 • 人類認知的特性 • 認知門檻 • 太慢：難察覺行動的結果 • 太快：來不及反省

40. 1 1 1 1 • 環路+時間滯延 沒耐性、半途而廢 煮熟的青蛙、不良的坐姿、都市犬口數

41. 40.00 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 20.00 1 0.00 0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00 矯枉過正 調節洗澡水溫

42. Formulating the problem • The behavior • A description of the behavior over time • A measurement of how the behavior has change over time • The time frame of the behavior

43. Formulating the problem • Problem story • At AZ, a semiconductor company, we’ve been puzzling over a series of events that occurred in our most recent quarter. We posted record sales for the quarter, with the majority of our sales force meeting or exceeding sales quotas. All products scheduled for release were launched, with additional products ready for early release in the next quarter. At the same time, however, our profit actually declined for the first time in our company’s history, as overhead cost as a percentage of sales reached an all-time high.

44. Identifying variables • List all variables that could reasonably be included, both quantity and qualitative. • Narrow your list down to the most important variables. (combine, remove, most relevant, central issue, relationships )

45. Use nouns or noun phrases • Use a neutral or positive term • Variables can be concrete entities as well as intangibles

46. Sales • New product releases • Profits • Sales force

47. Drawing BOT Graphs • Select a time horizon • Sketch the graph • Key variables together on the same graph • Label the lines • Build theories about how the graph’s variables are interrelated. earliest future early now

48. Case study • Identify the central problem • The problem with price promotions • Draw a BOT graph • The energy drain • The audio electronic roller coaster

49. The problem with price promotions • The problems described in the case Slowdown population growth Smaller annual increases in consumption Promotions eroding brand image Promotions encouraging price-based shopping Manufactures and retailers getting hooked on promotions Supermarkets’ growing control over the promotions Supermarkets demanding subsidies Forwarding buying Diverted low-price goods

50. The problem with price promotions • Overarching problem from the point of view of manufactures • Price promotions eroded brand image • Encourage consumers to shop on price only • Led supermarkets to misuse promotions • The use of promotions was a problem