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Forecasting technology comes in all shapes and sizes

Forecasting technology comes in all shapes and sizes. The modelled world. 1/12 0. Complexity. Computing Resources. Resolution. Duration and/or Ensemble size. 12km. 4 km. 1km. 2km. Atmosphere. Atmosphere. Atmosphere. Oceans. Oceans. Chemistry. Biosphere. Cryosphere.

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Forecasting technology comes in all shapes and sizes

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  1. Forecasting technologycomes in all shapes and sizes

  2. The modelled world...

  3. 1/120 Complexity Computing Resources Resolution Duration and/or Ensemble size

  4. 12km 4km 1km 2km

  5. Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Oceans Oceans Chemistry Biosphere Cryosphere Forecast Lead Time

  6. Images from Eric Guilyardi Walker Institute, University of Reading & IPSL, Paris

  7. Temperature in Leeds Low High

  8. 1 2 3 4

  9. Top 5 in science • Why we dream when we are sleeping and what the dreams might mean • Cancer – what we know and how we can treat it • How to perform first aid and use basic medical equipment • How to exercise the body to keep fit and strong • Sexually transmitted diseases and how to be protected against them • Explosive chemicals • How it feels to be weightless in space • How the atom bomb functions • Biological and chemical weapons and what they do to the human body • Black holes, supernovae and other spectacular objects in outer space Weather & Climate Science Geography Citizenship

  10. Where will our meteorologists of the future come from? % before age of 11 and 14

  11. British Council Royal Geog. Society Royal Met. Society Country Partners: China Indonesia Mexico UK Argentina Bangladesh Chile Columbia Cuba

  12. Weather Service Providers ≤10 10 to 30 ≥ 30

  13. and career development plan

  14. Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2009 • 52% don’t believe climate change will affect them • Only18% respondents think that climate change will take effect during their children’s lifetime • But 74% said they would make changes to their lifestyle now if they knew climate change was going to affect their children

  15. Long term changes in our climate

  16. A comparison between threeglobal average temperature records

  17. Changes in temperaturefor a doubling of CO2 • Temperature only 1oC • Water Vapour 2oC • Sea-ice, Snow, Clouds 0.5-5.5oC

  18. UK Climate Impacts Programme Central Estimate Unlikely to be below Unlikely to be above Change in summer mean precipitation (%) by 2050 under Medium emissions

  19. observations HadCM3 Medium-High 2050s 2003 Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C European 2003 summer temperatures

  20. Reduction of annual rainfall with wetter winters and drier summers • More of the rainfall to fall as heavier events with greater risk of flooding • Increased risk of coastal flooding

  21. 25 5 15

  22. 15 25 5

  23. Economics – ETS and a price for carbon • Technology – innovate solution • Global injustice – Contract and Convergence • Over-consumption – population/prosperity • Natural variability – adaptation • Tipping points – geo-engineering

  24. Thames Estuary: 1.5m surge 2080s Now Water level (m) £1/2 Billion 2yrs 50yrs Lowe et al, 2005 Return period years

  25. Source: Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre Targets are important but it’s the journey that matters demand supply & demand

  26. Source: Eurobarometer 55.2, December 2001

  27. Join ‘theWeather Club’ or just subscribe to ‘theWeather’ magazine

  28. Paul Hardaker • chiefexec@rmets.org • www.rmets.org

  29. A1FI A2 B1 B2

  30. Johns et al, 2003

  31. Closing the communications gap Scientist Technical complexity of material Relevance of public engagement Citizen Perception of science and scientists Science through the media Media Web 1.0, 2.0 & 3.0 Public Events Cultural Spaces

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