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Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling

Explore the link between population growth and climate change using an agent-based model. Discover how rising populations lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and higher temperatures, affecting population levels. Visualize temperature and population oscillations with negative feedback loops. Analyze factors like elevation, temperature, birth and death rates, and city sizes. Follow the impact of these variables on greenhouse gas emissions and population dynamics. Utilize the interface and BehaviorSpace tools for data analysis. Investigate how technology influences variables like death rates and birth rates.

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Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling

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  1. Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling By Marika Lohmus

  2. Purpose • What is the relationship between population and global warming? • More people → more greenhouse gases • More greenhouse gases → higher temperatures • Higher temperatures → less people Population size Greenhouse gases Temperature Figure 1: Negative Feedback Loop

  3. Purpose Cont. • With a negative feedback loop, there should be an oscillating representation of the temperature and population size which should level off. • When, at what temperature and at what cost?

  4. 1st Quarter Work • NetLogo • Got elevation data from previous project • Started Temperature map • Took me most of 1st quarter Fig 2: Q1 Temperature Map Fig 3: Elevation Map

  5. 2nd Quarter • Concentration: • Temperature • System Dynamics • Agents • Patches • Turtles • People • Cities

  6. Temperature Map

  7. System Dynamics

  8. People Salary 1/10,000 Cities Median Salary Poverty percent Name Agents • Patches • Elevation • Temperature • Death-rate • Birth-rate • Turtles • Act as borders • Negative values

  9. Patches • Change color as elevation or temperature changes • Color determined by change in average global temperature Fig 5: Temperature Increase

  10. Another random number generated to determine whether the agent will move or not Looks better – otherwise people stay in one place People • Turtle-like agents • Human shape • Random number generated for each – birth rate and death rate per 10,000 people per year

  11. Total greenhouse gas emissions determined by population size # Factories increase as population increases Assumption • Total population of the united states = population of all the largest cities • Everyone lives in large cities • Everyone has an equal effect on greenhouse gas output

  12. 3rd Quarter • Finished Coding • Designed Interface • BehaviorSpace for data

  13. Current Results Figure 7: Temperature and Population Data

  14. Variables • D_R • The death rate changes as temperatures and sea levels increase • Infection diseases, drowning, heat stroke, etc. • By how much? • Technology determines D_R

  15. Variables (Cont.) • Birth Rate • Assuming that brith rate remains constant (.1418) • Will it change in the future and by how much?

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