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ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing

Compare the price difference between futures contracts and the costs of storing grain from one delivery month to the next. Analyze the carry offered by the market, storage costs, and interest/opportunity costs. Evaluate seasonal pricing patterns and storage capacity.

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ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing

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  1. ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing Lee Schulz Associate Professor lschulz@iastate.edu 515-294-3356 Chad Hart Associate Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Carry (or Spread) The price difference between futures contracts Compare the carry offered by the market to the costs of storing grain from one delivery month to the next.

  3. Corn Futures Carry Date: 4/5/19

  4. Soybean Futures Carry Date: 4/5/19

  5. Corn Futures Carry Date: 11/17/11 Date: 4/3/12 July $6.34 May $6.58 May $6.30 July $6.53

  6. Inverse Carry When further out futures are priced at a discount to nearby futures Usually occurs when demand is strong and the need for the crop is immediate Can also occur during short crop situations or when there is a large crop coming in after a tight stock situation Basis is usually stronger in an inverse market

  7. Corn Futures Carry Date: 4/12/13 May $6.58 July $6.41 Sept $5.77

  8. Soybean Futures Carry Date: 4/12/13 May $14.13 July $13.79 Aug $13.39

  9. Cost of Ownership Carry shows the additional revenue that can be obtained from holding on to the crop But there are costs to holding on: storage interest/opportunity costs These are known as the cost of ownership If the carry more than covers the cost of ownership, then it’s referred to as “full carry”

  10. Storage Typically, storage costs can be broken down into two categories An in-out charge: sort of like a flat upfront fee Periodic charge: the additional cost for each time period - Could be monthly, weekly, or daily Charges vary by location (on-farm vs. off-farm)

  11. Interest/Opportunity Costs Costs associated with the lost opportunities you could have had if you sold the grain at harvest and reinvested the proceeds Figured as: Cash price at harvest * Short term interest rate * Months in storage / 12 Or the opportunity cost for each month in storage is: (1/12)* Cash price at harvest * Interest rate

  12. Corn Cost of Ownership Assumption: Corn is Valued at $3.24/bu Financed @ 5% APR

  13. Soybean Cost of Ownership Assumption: Soybeans are Valued at $7.78/bu Financed @ 5% APR

  14. Other Factors Moisture levels and drying costs Shrink factor Transportation costs Quality issues Helpful tool to evaluate costs: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/xls/a2-33.xls

  15. Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2018

  16. Corn Prices vs. Marketings Sources: USDA, NASS & ERS Monthly Price Data 1980-2018

  17. Soy Prices vs. Marketings Sources: USDA, NASS & ERS Monthly Price Data 1980-2018

  18. Iowa Storage Capacity Source: USDA-NASS

  19. U.S. Storage Capacity Source: USDA-NASS

  20. Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

  21. Class web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Classes/econ337/Spring2019/

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