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Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation

Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation. Friends/Partners in Aviation Weather Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2004 Joanne Lancaster – Meteorological Service of Canada. Presentation Outline. The Meteorological Service of Canada Services to NAV CANADA Other aviation initiatives

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Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation

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  1. Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation Friends/Partners in Aviation Weather Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2004 Joanne Lancaster – Meteorological Service of Canada

  2. Presentation Outline • The Meteorological Service of Canada • Services to NAV CANADA • Other aviation initiatives • What are we doing in Canada? • Forecast Production • Other Initiatives • Future Work

  3. The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) • The MSC is part of the Government of Canada (Department of Environment) • MSC Funding: • From parliament (A-base component) • Cost Recovered Services • Services to NAV CANADA are fully cost recovered • The MSC produces most of the aviation weather forecasts (annual value $9.3 million) through a full cost recovery product and service contract with NAV CANADA (annual value $20.2 million).

  4. Forecast Production Services to NAV CANADA 2 Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centres - CMACs CMAC-East • CCFP • North Atlantic Turbulence • TAFS • GFA Canadian Meteorological Centre • Supercomputer • VAAC • ASEP • AWWS • R&D CMAC-West • Canadian Turbulence Forecast • TAFS • GFA

  5. Other Services to NAV CANADA Aviation Weather Observation Services • maintenance, inspection, collection, processing, distribution, performance monitoring Performance Measurement (TAFs) Radar, Satellite, Lightning Telecommunications Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS)

  6. Other Aviation Related Initiatives Not all aviation related initiatives are cost recovered, i.e. the MSC is supporting some aviation related initiatives via A-base funding, where it is consistent with the MSC mandate to do so. • AMDAR - data link weather information from aircraft in flight • Aircraft Icing Research Study (AIRS II) • Aerodrome forecast performance metrics to support more fuel efficient flight operations, thereby reducing green house gas emissions

  7. Forecast Production Automated Supplementary En-route weather Prediction (ASEP) • Automated (model output) graphic forecasts of turbulence, winds and temperatures en-route, cloud, icing, isobaric pattern • Developed and maintained by the MSC Canadian Meteorological Centre for NAV CANADA • Currently staged for training of NAV CANADA FSS • Accessible via the Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) and to NAV CANADA Flight Information Centres (FICs) via dedicated relay

  8. Forecast Production Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Canadian portion – produced by the CMAC-East in Montreal Supporting efficient cross- border routing of aircraft. Approximately 80 aircraft on CAN-1 on this day

  9. Red= Addl. NEXRADs to be added to CIWS network in 2004 Yellow=Canadian radars Green= “CAN” playbook routes 1,5 and 7 Forecast Production Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Data from 5 MSC RADAR covers the Canadian (off-load) Routes

  10. Forecast Production Aerodrome Forecast Quality/Reliability Improvement • TAF Quality/Reliability • Current measured metrics say we’re not getting better; measures are not easy to understand or interpret; no one really uses them • Measure what matters to the end-users; what affects the airlines decision making process • Feedback to operations; so forecasters understand how their forecast impact decision making process • Current MSC, NC initiative with funding from Program for Energy Reduction and Development • Engaging the end-users in the process; providing in-kind support • Focusing on the issue at an upcoming aviation workshop • Funding R&D (statistical methods, fuzzy logic) with goal to improve quality

  11. Other Initiatives Development of an Aviation Lab within the MSC • Support the responsibilities of several government departments, particularly Transport and National Defense who have mandated responsibilities for aviation meteorology • Demonstrate a commitment to the future of the MSC aviation forecasting offices and personnel, and ensure that the MSC remains a world-class aviation weather service provider • Collaborate with other national and international R&D efforts in aviation meteorology and with other severe weather R&D programs • Provide an appropriate venue for the testing and development of aviation forecasting tools and to facilitate technology transfer/linkage back to operations

  12. Future Work? Focus on coordinated efforts where it makes sense to do so Continue to focus on x-border commonality and integration of products Broaden our understanding of how Canadian forecasts impact end-users Work with end users to provide them with the right information to support their decision making processes

  13. Merci Beaucoup * Thank You! Contact Information: Joanne Lancaster Chief, Client Services (613) 995-4976 Joanne.lancaster@ec.gc.ca

  14. MSC’s Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre - West (Edmonton)

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