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Lightning Mapping Array Benefits Decision Making in Severe Weather Warnings

The Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) directly impacts severe warning decisions at various Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), offering crucial data on storm intensification. Surveys and feedback from meteorologists indicate that LMA data enhances situational awareness, forecast confidence, and warning lead times. With LMA benchmarks and operational evaluations, forecasters gain confidence in utilizing this data for improved warning decisions and lead time. The LMA proves to be a valuable tool in forecasting severe weather events.

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Lightning Mapping Array Benefits Decision Making in Severe Weather Warnings

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  1. LMA Assessment Dennis Buechler

  2. Total Lightning Impacts Decision Making • Has directly contributed to several correct severe warning decisions at HUN and OHX. • “…the LMA density map gives you a great overall view of where storms with intensifying updrafts are located. So it gives you a good map of where to concentrate attention.” • “I believe the flash density rates were the primary factor in holding off on a warning.” • Data archived by WFO • Used in Warning Event Simulator for office training and research

  3. Operational Evaluations • Web based LMA survey developed for the WFOs • Completed after an event in which the LMA data was used • Survey also available at other WFOs (OHX, BMX, FWD)

  4. LMA Benchmarking: ResultsNovember 2003 through November 2005 • 28 surveys filled out by HUN and OHX, none yet from BMX: 1 in 2003, 8 in 2004, 19 in 2005 • Severe Weather Scenarios • Large Hail • Tornadoes • Straight Line Winds • Cells Embedded in Lines • Supercells • Microburst-producing single pulse summer TRW

  5. LMA Benchmarking:OHX (Nashville) Results • 5 Surveys in 2005 • All indicated the data useful identifying cells with strongest updrafts- helped forecaster identify storms needing more attention • LMA data used to verify other data- radar, eye-witness reports- used by forecasters in the warning decision • 2 reports: warning lead time increased by 2-3 min • Forecasters gaining confidence in using the data

  6. LMA Benchmarking:HUN (Huntsville) Results • 23 Surveys completed; 19 used in analysis • 1 case: problems with data • 3 cases: data not updating properly • In 11 cases there was a positive impact - increased warning lead time of 1-9 min • In remaining 8 cases, either no impact on warning decision or forecaster warned based on other available data • In 2005, 9 of 12 surveys indicated improvement in lead time with LMA

  7. LMA Benchmarking: Interim ResultsRankings on Scale of 1-10

  8. Greatest LMA impact in operations • Low to moderate severe events • At greater distances from the radar • Sub radar interval cell information • Detecting initial cloud to ground strikes • Local case studies have shown lead times on the order of several (3-5) minutes • Increased lead times for TAF updates and Airport Weather Warnings

  9. WES Cases for Training and Research Selected archived WES cases of different types of weather events (including a null case) for use in training and further research. T – Tornado W – Strong Winds FF – Flash Flood H – Large Hail Null – No SVR

  10. Summary • Surveys and forecaster feedback indicate that LMA data is useful: • Improved situational awareness • Improved forecast confidence • Longer estimated warning lead times • Surveys useful in reviewing events • Surveys valuable for choosing case studies • Encourages feedback

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