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LMA Assessment

LMA Assessment. Dennis Buechler. Total Lightning Impacts Decision Making. Has directly contributed to several correct severe warning decisions at HUN and OHX.

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LMA Assessment

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  1. LMA Assessment Dennis Buechler

  2. Total Lightning Impacts Decision Making • Has directly contributed to several correct severe warning decisions at HUN and OHX. • “…the LMA density map gives you a great overall view of where storms with intensifying updrafts are located. So it gives you a good map of where to concentrate attention.” • “I believe the flash density rates were the primary factor in holding off on a warning.” • Data archived by WFO • Used in Warning Event Simulator for office training and research

  3. Operational Evaluations • Web based LMA survey developed for the WFOs • Completed after an event in which the LMA data was used • Survey also available at other WFOs (OHX, BMX, FWD)

  4. LMA Benchmarking: ResultsNovember 2003 through November 2005 • 28 surveys filled out by HUN and OHX, none yet from BMX: 1 in 2003, 8 in 2004, 19 in 2005 • Severe Weather Scenarios • Large Hail • Tornadoes • Straight Line Winds • Cells Embedded in Lines • Supercells • Microburst-producing single pulse summer TRW

  5. LMA Benchmarking:OHX (Nashville) Results • 5 Surveys in 2005 • All indicated the data useful identifying cells with strongest updrafts- helped forecaster identify storms needing more attention • LMA data used to verify other data- radar, eye-witness reports- used by forecasters in the warning decision • 2 reports: warning lead time increased by 2-3 min • Forecasters gaining confidence in using the data

  6. LMA Benchmarking:HUN (Huntsville) Results • 23 Surveys completed; 19 used in analysis • 1 case: problems with data • 3 cases: data not updating properly • In 11 cases there was a positive impact - increased warning lead time of 1-9 min • In remaining 8 cases, either no impact on warning decision or forecaster warned based on other available data • In 2005, 9 of 12 surveys indicated improvement in lead time with LMA

  7. LMA Benchmarking: Interim ResultsRankings on Scale of 1-10

  8. Greatest LMA impact in operations • Low to moderate severe events • At greater distances from the radar • Sub radar interval cell information • Detecting initial cloud to ground strikes • Local case studies have shown lead times on the order of several (3-5) minutes • Increased lead times for TAF updates and Airport Weather Warnings

  9. WES Cases for Training and Research Selected archived WES cases of different types of weather events (including a null case) for use in training and further research. T – Tornado W – Strong Winds FF – Flash Flood H – Large Hail Null – No SVR

  10. Summary • Surveys and forecaster feedback indicate that LMA data is useful: • Improved situational awareness • Improved forecast confidence • Longer estimated warning lead times • Surveys useful in reviewing events • Surveys valuable for choosing case studies • Encourages feedback

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