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Energy and the Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

This ten-year forecast examines the current state of energy and the economy, highlighting the challenges and opportunities ahead. It addresses issues such as peak energy, diminishing returns, and the link between net energy and economic activity. The forecast explores potential solutions and the implications of different scenarios.

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Energy and the Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

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  1. Institute for the Future: Ten Year Forecast Energy and the Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly George E. Mobus, Associate Professor, Computing & Software Systems, The Institute of Technology, University of Washington Tacoma http://www.washington.edu/research/energy/researcher/george-e-mobus George Mobus University of Washington Tacoma

  2. Institute for the Future: Ten Year Forecast The Good • We possess substantial knowledge about energy and the economy • We have recognized the problems • We have the tools of systems science George Mobus University of Washington Tacoma

  3. Institute for the Future: Ten Year Forecast The Bad • Peak energy is at hand • Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) • Fossil fuels – going down • Alternative (renewable) – inherently low • Gains in efficiency follow the Law of Diminishing Returns George Mobus University of Washington Tacoma

  4. Institute for the Future: Ten Year Forecast and the Ugly • Net energy already in decline? • Economic activity is directly linked to net energy • Efficiency improvements require energy investments • No conceivable build-out rate for any combination of alternative sources • Permanent contraction? The “worst case scenario” George Mobus University of Washington Tacoma

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